import { getFunctions, httpsCallable } from 'firebase/functions' import clsx from 'clsx' import React, { useState } from 'react' import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user' import { Contract } from '../lib/firebase/contracts' import { Col } from './layout/col' import { Row } from './layout/row' import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer' import { YesNoSelector } from './yes-no-selector' import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format' export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) { const { contract, className } = props const user = useUser() const [betChoice, setBetChoice] = useState<'YES' | 'NO'>('YES') const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState(undefined) const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false) const [wasSubmitted, setWasSubmitted] = useState(false) function onBetChoice(choice: 'YES' | 'NO') { setBetChoice(choice) setWasSubmitted(false) } function onBetChange(str: string) { const amount = parseInt(str) setBetAmount(isNaN(amount) ? undefined : amount) setWasSubmitted(false) } async function submitBet() { if (!user || !betAmount) return setIsSubmitting(true) const result = await placeBet({ amount: betAmount, outcome: betChoice, contractId: contract.id, }) console.log('placed bet. Result:', result) setIsSubmitting(false) setWasSubmitted(true) } const betDisabled = isSubmitting || wasSubmitted const initialProb = getProbability(contract.pot, betChoice) const resultProb = getProbability(contract.pot, betChoice, betAmount) const dpmWeight = getDpmWeight(contract.pot, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice) const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor((betAmount ?? 0) + dpmWeight) const estimatedReturn = betAmount ? (estimatedWinnings - betAmount) / betAmount : 0 const estimatedReturnPercent = (estimatedReturn * 100).toFixed() + '%' return (
Pick outcome
onBetChoice(choice)} />
Bet amount
M$
onBetChange(e.target.value)} />
Implied probability
{Math.floor(initialProb * 1000) / 10 + '%'}
{Math.floor(resultProb * 1000) / 10 + '%'}
Estimated winnings
{formatMoney(estimatedWinnings)} (+{estimatedReturnPercent})
{wasSubmitted &&
Bet submitted!
} ) } const functions = getFunctions() export const placeBet = httpsCallable(functions, 'placeBet') const getProbability = ( pot: { YES: number; NO: number }, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', bet = 0 ) => { const [yesPot, noPot] = [ pot.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0), pot.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0), ] const numerator = Math.pow(yesPot, 2) const denominator = Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + Math.pow(noPot, 2) return numerator / denominator } const getDpmWeight = ( pot: { YES: number; NO: number }, bet: number, betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO' ) => { const [yesPot, noPot] = [pot.YES, pot.NO] return betChoice === 'YES' ? (bet * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + bet * yesPot) : (bet * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + bet * noPot) }