import * as _ from 'lodash' import { Bet } from './bet' import { deductDpmFees, getDpmProbability } from './calculate-dpm' import { Binary, Contract, CPMM, DPM, FreeResponse, FullContract, Multi, } from './contract' import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees' export const getDpmCancelPayouts = ( contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[] ) => { const { pool } = contract const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(pool)) console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal) const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount) return bets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * poolTotal, })) } export const getFixedCancelPayouts = (bets: Bet[]) => { return bets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: bet.amount, })) } export const getStandardFixedPayouts = ( outcome: string, contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[] ) => { const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome) const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => { const winnings = shares const profit = winnings - amount const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * profit return { userId, profit, payout } }) const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit)) const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits console.log( 'resolved', outcome, 'pool', contract.pool, 'profits', profits, 'creator fee', creatorPayout ) return payouts .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout })) .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee .concat(getLiquidityPoolPayouts(contract, outcome)) } export const getLiquidityPoolPayouts = ( contract: FullContract, outcome: string ) => { const { creatorId, pool } = contract return [{ userId: creatorId, payout: pool[outcome] }] } export const getStandardPayouts = ( outcome: string, contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[] ) => { const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => bet.outcome === outcome) const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool)) const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares) const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => { const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * poolTotal const profit = winnings - amount // profit can be negative if using phantom shares const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit) return { userId, profit, payout } }) const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit)) const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits console.log( 'resolved', outcome, 'pool', poolTotal, 'profits', profits, 'creator fee', creatorPayout ) return payouts .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout })) .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee } export const getMktPayouts = ( contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[], resolutionProbability?: number ) => { const p = resolutionProbability === undefined ? getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares) : resolutionProbability const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.outcome === 'YES' ? p * b.shares : (1 - p) * b.shares ) const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => { const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool const profit = winnings - amount const payout = deductDpmFees(amount, winnings) return { userId, profit, payout } }) const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit)) const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits console.log( 'resolved MKT', p, 'pool', pool, 'profits', profits, 'creator fee', creatorPayout ) return payouts .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout })) .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee } export const getMktFixedPayouts = ( contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[], resolutionProbability?: number ) => { const p = resolutionProbability === undefined ? getDpmProbability(contract.pool) : resolutionProbability const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => { const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p const winnings = betP * shares const profit = winnings - amount const payout = deductDpmFees(amount, winnings) return { userId, profit, payout } }) const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit)) const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits console.log( 'resolved MKT', p, 'pool', contract.pool, 'profits', profits, 'creator fee', creatorPayout ) return payouts .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout })) .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee .concat(getLiquidityPoolProbPayouts(contract, p)) } export const getLiquidityPoolProbPayouts = ( contract: FullContract, p: number ) => { const { creatorId, pool } = contract const payout = p * pool.YES + (1 - p) * pool.NO return [{ userId: creatorId, payout }] } export const getPayouts = ( outcome: string, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[], resolutionProbability?: number ) => { if (contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1') { switch (outcome) { case 'YES': case 'NO': return getStandardFixedPayouts(outcome, contract as any, bets) case 'MKT': return getMktFixedPayouts(contract as any, bets, resolutionProbability) case 'CANCEL': return getFixedCancelPayouts(bets) } } switch (outcome) { case 'YES': case 'NO': return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets) case 'MKT': return getMktPayouts(contract, bets, resolutionProbability) case 'CANCEL': return getDpmCancelPayouts(contract, bets) default: // Multi outcome. return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets) } } export const getPayoutsMultiOutcome = ( resolutions: { [outcome: string]: number }, contract: FullContract, bets: Bet[] ) => { const poolTotal = _.sum(Object.values(contract.pool)) const winningBets = bets.filter((bet) => resolutions[bet.outcome]) const betsByOutcome = _.groupBy(winningBets, (bet) => bet.outcome) const sharesByOutcome = _.mapValues(betsByOutcome, (bets) => _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => bet.shares) ) const probTotal = _.sum(Object.values(resolutions)) const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => { const prob = resolutions[outcome] / probTotal const winnings = (shares / sharesByOutcome[outcome]) * prob * poolTotal const profit = winnings - amount const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit) return { userId, profit, payout } }) const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => po.profit) const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits console.log( 'resolved', resolutions, 'pool', poolTotal, 'profits', profits, 'creator fee', creatorPayout ) return payouts .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout })) .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee } export const getLoanPayouts = (bets: Bet[]) => { const betsWithLoans = bets.filter((bet) => bet.loanAmount) const betsByUser = _.groupBy(betsWithLoans, (bet) => bet.userId) const loansByUser = _.mapValues(betsByUser, (bets) => _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => -(bet.loanAmount ?? 0)) ) return _.toPairs(loansByUser).map(([userId, payout]) => ({ userId, payout })) }