import { Bet } from "./bet"; import { Contract } from "./contract"; import { FEES } from "./fees"; export const blah = () => 999; export const getProbability = (pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) => { const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]; const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2); const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2); return numerator / denominator; }; export function getProbabilityAfterBet( pool: { YES: number; NO: number }, outcome: "YES" | "NO", bet: number ) { const [YES, NO] = [ pool.YES + (outcome === "YES" ? bet : 0), pool.NO + (outcome === "NO" ? bet : 0), ]; return getProbability({ YES, NO }); } export function calculateShares( pool: { YES: number; NO: number }, bet: number, betChoice: "YES" | "NO" ) { const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]; return betChoice === "YES" ? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool) : bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool); } export function calculatePayout( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: "YES" | "NO" | "CANCEL" | "MKT" ) { const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet; if (outcome === "CANCEL") return amount; if (outcome === "MKT") return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet); if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0; const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract; if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0; const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO; const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool; if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool) return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool; const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]; const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]; return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool); } export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet; const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract; const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO; const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool; const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount; const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares; if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool) return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool; const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome; const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome; return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool); } function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const p = contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2); const weightedTotal = p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO; const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO; const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool; const betP = bet.outcome === "YES" ? p : 1 - p; if (weightedTotal >= truePool) { return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool; } const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal; const weightedShareTotal = p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) + (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO); return ( (1 - FEES) * (betP * bet.amount + ((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool) ); } export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { if (contract.resolution) return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution); throw new Error("Contract was not resolved"); } export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const prob = getProbability(contract.pool); const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, "YES"); const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, "NO"); return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout; } export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const { shares, outcome } = bet; const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool; const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool; const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares; const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]; const shareValue = outcome === "YES" ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b (n ** 2 + s * y + y ** 2 - Math.sqrt( n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y) )) / (2 * y) : (y ** 2 + s * n + n ** 2 - Math.sqrt( y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n) )) / (2 * n); const startPool = yesStart + noStart; const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool; const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2); const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares); const myPool = outcome === "YES" ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart; const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool); const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue; return saleAmount; }