import { useMemo, useRef } from 'react' import { last, sum, sortBy, groupBy } from 'lodash' import { scaleTime, scaleLinear } from 'd3-scale' import { Bet } from 'common/bet' import { Answer } from 'common/answer' import { FreeResponseContract, MultipleChoiceContract } from 'common/contract' import { getOutcomeProbability } from 'common/calculate' import { useIsMobile } from 'web/hooks/use-is-mobile' import { MARGIN_X, MARGIN_Y, MAX_DATE, getDateRange, getRightmostVisibleDate, } from '../helpers' import { MultiPoint, MultiValueHistoryChart } from '../generic-charts' import { useElementWidth } from 'web/hooks/use-element-width' // thanks to https://observablehq.com/@jonhelfman/optimal-orders-for-choosing-categorical-colors const CATEGORY_COLORS = [ '#00b8dd', '#eecafe', '#874c62', '#6457ca', '#f773ba', '#9c6bbc', '#a87744', '#af8a04', '#bff9aa', '#f3d89d', '#c9a0f5', '#ff00e5', '#9dc6f7', '#824475', '#d973cc', '#bc6808', '#056e70', '#677932', '#00b287', '#c8ab6c', '#a2fb7a', '#f8db68', '#14675a', '#8288f4', '#fe1ca0', '#ad6aff', '#786306', '#9bfbaf', '#b00cf7', '#2f7ec5', '#4b998b', '#42fa0e', '#5b80a1', '#962d9d', '#3385ff', '#48c5ab', '#b2c873', '#4cf9a4', '#00ffff', '#3cca73', '#99ae17', '#7af5cf', '#52af45', '#fbb80f', '#29971b', '#187c9a', '#00d539', '#bbfa1a', '#61f55c', '#cabc03', '#ff9000', '#779100', '#bcfd6f', '#70a560', ] const getTrackedAnswers = ( contract: FreeResponseContract | MultipleChoiceContract, topN: number ) => { const { answers, outcomeType, totalBets } = contract const validAnswers = answers.filter((answer) => { return ( (answer.id !== '0' || outcomeType === 'MULTIPLE_CHOICE') && totalBets[answer.id] > 0.000000001 ) }) return sortBy( validAnswers, (answer) => -1 * getOutcomeProbability(contract, answer.id) ).slice(0, topN) } const getStartPoint = (answers: Answer[], start: Date) => { return [start, answers.map((_) => 0)] as const } const getEndPoint = ( answers: Answer[], contract: FreeResponseContract | MultipleChoiceContract, end: Date ) => { return [ end, answers.map((a) => getOutcomeProbability(contract, a.id)), ] as const } const getBetPoints = (answers: Answer[], bets: Bet[]) => { const sortedBets = sortBy(bets, (b) => b.createdTime) const betsByOutcome = groupBy(sortedBets, (bet) => bet.outcome) const sharesByOutcome = Object.fromEntries( Object.keys(betsByOutcome).map((outcome) => [outcome, 0]) ) const points: MultiPoint[] = [] for (const bet of sortedBets) { const { outcome, shares } = bet sharesByOutcome[outcome] += shares const sharesSquared = sum( Object.values(sharesByOutcome).map((shares) => shares ** 2) ) points.push([ new Date(bet.createdTime), answers.map((answer) => sharesByOutcome[answer.id] ** 2 / sharesSquared), ]) } return points } export const ChoiceContractChart = (props: { contract: FreeResponseContract | MultipleChoiceContract bets: Bet[] height?: number }) => { const { contract, bets } = props const [contractStart, contractEnd] = getDateRange(contract) const answers = useMemo( () => getTrackedAnswers(contract, CATEGORY_COLORS.length), [contract] ) const betPoints = useMemo(() => getBetPoints(answers, bets), [answers, bets]) const data = useMemo( () => [ getStartPoint(answers, contractStart), ...betPoints, getEndPoint(answers, contract, contractEnd ?? MAX_DATE), ], [answers, contract, betPoints, contractStart, contractEnd] ) const rightmostDate = getRightmostVisibleDate( contractEnd, last(betPoints)?.[0], new Date(Date.now()) ) const visibleRange = [contractStart, rightmostDate] const isMobile = useIsMobile(800) const containerRef = useRef(null) const width = useElementWidth(containerRef) ?? 0 const height = props.height ?? (isMobile ? 150 : 250) const xScale = scaleTime(visibleRange, [0, width - MARGIN_X]) const yScale = scaleLinear([0, 1], [height - MARGIN_Y, 0]) return (
{width && ( answer.text)} pct /> )}
) }