import { Bet } from './bet' import { Contract } from './contract' import { FEES } from './fees' export function getProbability(totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }) { const { YES: y, NO: n } = totalShares return y ** 2 / (y ** 2 + n ** 2) } export function getProbabilityAfterBet( totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', bet: number ) { const shares = calculateShares(totalShares, bet, outcome) const [YES, NO] = outcome === 'YES' ? [totalShares.YES + shares, totalShares.NO] : [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO + shares] return getProbability({ YES, NO }) } export function calculateShares( totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }, bet: number, betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO] const c = 2 * bet * Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2) return betChoice === 'YES' ? Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + yesShares ** 2 + c) - yesShares : Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + noShares ** 2 + c) - noShares } export function calculateEstimatedWinnings( totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }, shares: number, betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { const ind = betChoice === 'YES' ? 1 : 0 const yesShares = totalShares.YES + ind * shares const noShares = totalShares.NO + (1 - ind) * shares const estPool = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2) const total = ind * yesShares + (1 - ind) * noShares return ((1 - FEES) * (shares * estPool)) / total } export function calculateRawShareValue( totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }, shares: number, betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO] const currentValue = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2) const postSaleValue = betChoice === 'YES' ? Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, yesShares - shares) ** 2 + noShares ** 2) : Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + Math.max(0, noShares - shares) ** 2) return currentValue - postSaleValue } export function calculateMoneyRatio( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, shareValue: number ) { const { totalShares, pool } = contract const p = getProbability(totalShares) const actual = pool.YES + pool.NO - shareValue const betAmount = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p * bet.amount : (1 - p) * bet.amount const expected = p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO - betAmount if (actual <= 0 || expected <= 0) return 0 return actual / expected } export function calculateShareValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const shareValue = calculateRawShareValue( contract.totalShares, bet.shares, bet.outcome ) const f = calculateMoneyRatio(contract, bet, shareValue) const myPool = contract.pool[bet.outcome] const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool) return adjShareValue } export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { return (1 - FEES) * calculateShareValue(contract, bet) } export function calculatePayout( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' ) { if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return calculateCancelPayout(contract, bet) if (outcome === 'MKT') return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet) return calculateStandardPayout(contract, bet, outcome) } export function calculateCancelPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const totalBets = contract.totalBets.YES + contract.totalBets.NO const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO return (bet.amount / totalBets) * pool } export function calculateStandardPayout( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0 const { totalShares, totalBets, phantomShares } = contract if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0 const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool) return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool const total = totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome] const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome] return amount + (1 - FEES) * ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool } export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const { totalShares, pool, totalBets } = contract const ind = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? 1 : 0 const { shares, amount } = bet const newContract = { ...contract, totalShares: { YES: totalShares.YES + ind * shares, NO: totalShares.NO + (1 - ind) * shares, }, pool: { YES: pool.YES + ind * amount, NO: pool.NO + (1 - ind) * amount, }, totalBets: { YES: totalBets.YES + ind * amount, NO: totalBets.NO + (1 - ind) * amount, }, } return calculateStandardPayout(newContract, bet, bet.outcome) } function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const p = contract.resolutionProbability !== undefined ? contract.resolutionProbability : getProbability(contract.totalShares) const weightedTotal = p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p if (weightedTotal >= truePool) { return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool } const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal const weightedShareTotal = p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) + (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO) return ( betP * bet.amount + (1 - FEES) * ((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool ) } export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { if (contract.resolution) return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution) throw new Error('Contract was not resolved') } // deprecated use MKT payout export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const prob = getProbability(contract.pool) const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES') const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO') return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout }