import { maxBy, partition, sortBy, sum, sumBy } from 'lodash' import { Bet, LimitBet } from './bet' import { calculateCpmmSale, getCpmmProbability, getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet, getCpmmProbabilityAfterSale, calculateCpmmSharesAfterFee, } from './calculate-cpmm' import { calculateDpmPayout, calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet, calculateDpmSaleAmount, calculateDpmShares, getDpmOutcomeProbability, getDpmProbability, getDpmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet, getDpmProbabilityAfterSale, } from './calculate-dpm' import { calculateFixedPayout } from './calculate-fixed-payouts' import { Contract, BinaryContract, FreeResponseContract, PseudoNumericContract, MultipleChoiceContract, } from './contract' import { floatingEqual } from './util/math' export function getProbability( contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract ) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p) : getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares) } export function getInitialProbability( contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract ) { if (contract.initialProbability) return contract.initialProbability if (contract.mechanism === 'dpm-2' || (contract as any).totalShares) // use totalShares to calculate prob for ported contracts return getDpmProbability( (contract as any).phantomShares ?? (contract as any).totalShares ) return getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p) } export function getOutcomeProbability(contract: Contract, outcome: string) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p) : getDpmOutcomeProbability(contract.totalShares, outcome) } export function getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet( contract: Contract, outcome: string, bet: number ) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(contract, outcome, bet) : getDpmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(contract.totalShares, outcome, bet) } export function calculateShares( contract: Contract, bet: number, betChoice: string ) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? calculateCpmmSharesAfterFee(contract, bet, betChoice) : calculateDpmShares(contract.totalShares, bet, betChoice) } export function calculateSaleAmount( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, unfilledBets: LimitBet[] ) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' || contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') ? calculateCpmmSale( contract, Math.abs(bet.shares), bet.outcome as 'YES' | 'NO', unfilledBets ).saleValue : calculateDpmSaleAmount(contract, bet) } export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? bet.shares : calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, bet) } export function getProbabilityAfterSale( contract: Contract, outcome: string, shares: number, unfilledBets: LimitBet[] ) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' ? getCpmmProbabilityAfterSale( contract, shares, outcome as 'YES' | 'NO', unfilledBets ) : getDpmProbabilityAfterSale(contract.totalShares, outcome, shares) } export function calculatePayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: string) { return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' || contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome) : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome) } export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const outcome = contract.resolution if (!outcome) throw new Error('Contract not resolved') return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' || contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome) : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome) } function getCpmmInvested(yourBets: Bet[]) { const totalShares: { [outcome: string]: number } = {} const totalSpent: { [outcome: string]: number } = {} const sortedBets = sortBy(yourBets, 'createdTime') for (const bet of sortedBets) { const { outcome, shares, amount } = bet if (floatingEqual(shares, 0)) continue const spent = totalSpent[outcome] ?? 0 const position = totalShares[outcome] ?? 0 if (amount > 0) { totalShares[outcome] = position + shares totalSpent[outcome] = spent + amount } else if (amount < 0) { const averagePrice = position === 0 ? 0 : spent / position totalShares[outcome] = position + shares totalSpent[outcome] = spent + averagePrice * shares } } return sum([0, ...Object.values(totalSpent)]) } function getDpmInvested(yourBets: Bet[]) { const sortedBets = sortBy(yourBets, 'createdTime') return sumBy(sortedBets, (bet) => { const { amount, sale } = bet if (sale) { const originalBet = sortedBets.find((b) => b.id === sale.betId) if (originalBet) return -originalBet.amount return 0 } return amount }) } export function getContractBetMetrics(contract: Contract, yourBets: Bet[]) { const { resolution } = contract const isCpmm = contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' let totalInvested = 0 let payout = 0 let loan = 0 let saleValue = 0 let redeemed = 0 const totalShares: { [outcome: string]: number } = {} for (const bet of yourBets) { const { isSold, sale, amount, loanAmount, isRedemption, shares, outcome } = bet totalShares[outcome] = (totalShares[outcome] ?? 0) + shares if (isSold) { totalInvested += amount } else if (sale) { saleValue += sale.amount } else { if (isRedemption) { redeemed += -1 * amount } else if (amount > 0) { totalInvested += amount } else { saleValue -= amount } loan += loanAmount ?? 0 payout += resolution ? calculatePayout(contract, bet, resolution) : calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT') } } const profit = payout + saleValue + redeemed - totalInvested const profitPercent = (profit / totalInvested) * 100 const invested = isCpmm ? getCpmmInvested(yourBets) : getDpmInvested(yourBets) const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some( (shares) => !floatingEqual(shares, 0) ) return { invested, loan, payout, profit, profitPercent, totalShares, hasShares, } } export function getContractBetNullMetrics() { return { invested: 0, loan: 0, payout: 0, profit: 0, profitPercent: 0, totalShares: {} as { [outcome: string]: number }, hasShares: false, } } export function getTopAnswer( contract: FreeResponseContract | MultipleChoiceContract ) { const { answers } = contract const top = maxBy( answers?.map((answer) => ({ answer, prob: getOutcomeProbability(contract, answer.id), })), ({ prob }) => prob ) return top?.answer } export function getLargestPosition(contract: Contract, userBets: Bet[]) { let yesFloorShares = 0, yesShares = 0, noShares = 0, noFloorShares = 0 if (userBets.length === 0) { return null } if (contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') { const answerCounts: { [outcome: string]: number } = {} for (const bet of userBets) { if (bet.outcome) { if (!answerCounts[bet.outcome]) { answerCounts[bet.outcome] = bet.amount } else { answerCounts[bet.outcome] += bet.amount } } } const majorityAnswer = maxBy(Object.keys(answerCounts), (outcome) => answerCounts[outcome]) ?? '' return { prob: undefined, shares: answerCounts[majorityAnswer] || 0, outcome: majorityAnswer, } } const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(userBets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES') yesShares = sumBy(yesBets, (bet) => bet.shares) noShares = sumBy(noBets, (bet) => bet.shares) yesFloorShares = Math.floor(yesShares) noFloorShares = Math.floor(noShares) const shares = yesFloorShares || noFloorShares const outcome = yesFloorShares > noFloorShares ? 'YES' : 'NO' return { shares, outcome } }