import { groupBy, mapValues, sumBy } from 'lodash' import { LimitBet } from './bet' import { CREATOR_FEE, Fees, LIQUIDITY_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './fees' import { LiquidityProvision } from './liquidity-provision' import { computeFills } from './new-bet' import { binarySearch } from './util/algos' export type CpmmState = { pool: { [outcome: string]: number } p: number } export function getCpmmProbability( pool: { [outcome: string]: number }, p: number ) { const { YES, NO } = pool return (p * NO) / ((1 - p) * YES + p * NO) } export function getCpmmProbabilityAfterBetBeforeFees( state: CpmmState, outcome: string, bet: number ) { const { pool, p } = state const shares = calculateCpmmShares(pool, p, bet, outcome) const { YES: y, NO: n } = pool const [newY, newN] = outcome === 'YES' ? [y - shares + bet, n + bet] : [y + bet, n - shares + bet] return getCpmmProbability({ YES: newY, NO: newN }, p) } export function getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet( state: CpmmState, outcome: string, bet: number ) { const { newPool } = calculateCpmmPurchase(state, bet, outcome) const p = getCpmmProbability(newPool, state.p) return outcome === 'NO' ? 1 - p : p } // before liquidity fee function calculateCpmmShares( pool: { [outcome: string]: number }, p: number, bet: number, betChoice: string ) { const { YES: y, NO: n } = pool const k = y ** p * n ** (1 - p) return betChoice === 'YES' ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%28y%2Bb-s%29%5E%28p%29*%28n%2Bb%29%5E%281-p%29+%3D+k%2C+solve+s y + bet - (k * (bet + n) ** (p - 1)) ** (1 / p) : n + bet - (k * (bet + y) ** -p) ** (1 / (1 - p)) } export function getCpmmFees(state: CpmmState, bet: number, outcome: string) { const prob = getCpmmProbabilityAfterBetBeforeFees(state, outcome, bet) const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? 1 - prob : prob const liquidityFee = LIQUIDITY_FEE * betP * bet const platformFee = PLATFORM_FEE * betP * bet const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * betP * bet const fees: Fees = { liquidityFee, platformFee, creatorFee } const totalFees = liquidityFee + platformFee + creatorFee const remainingBet = bet - totalFees return { remainingBet, totalFees, fees } } export function calculateCpmmSharesAfterFee( state: CpmmState, bet: number, outcome: string ) { const { pool, p } = state const { remainingBet } = getCpmmFees(state, bet, outcome) return calculateCpmmShares(pool, p, remainingBet, outcome) } export function calculateCpmmPurchase( state: CpmmState, bet: number, outcome: string ) { const { pool, p } = state const { remainingBet, fees } = getCpmmFees(state, bet, outcome) const shares = calculateCpmmShares(pool, p, remainingBet, outcome) const { YES: y, NO: n } = pool const { liquidityFee: fee } = fees const [newY, newN] = outcome === 'YES' ? [y - shares + remainingBet + fee, n + remainingBet + fee] : [y + remainingBet + fee, n - shares + remainingBet + fee] const postBetPool = { YES: newY, NO: newN } const { newPool, newP } = addCpmmLiquidity(postBetPool, p, fee) return { shares, newPool, newP, fees } } // Note: there might be a closed form solution for this. // If so, feel free to switch out this implementation. export function calculateCpmmAmountToProb( state: CpmmState, prob: number, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { if (prob <= 0 || prob >= 1 || isNaN(prob)) return Infinity if (outcome === 'NO') prob = 1 - prob // First, find an upper bound that leads to a more extreme probability than prob. let maxGuess = 10 let newProb = 0 do { maxGuess *= 10 newProb = getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(state, outcome, maxGuess) } while (newProb < prob) // Then, binary search for the amount that gets closest to prob. const amount = binarySearch(0, maxGuess, (amount) => { const newProb = getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(state, outcome, amount) return newProb - prob }) return amount } function calculateAmountToBuyShares( state: CpmmState, shares: number, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', unfilledBets: LimitBet[], balanceByUserId: { [userId: string]: number } ) { // Search for amount between bounds (0, shares). // Min share price is M$0, and max is M$1 each. return binarySearch(0, shares, (amount) => { const { takers } = computeFills( outcome, amount, state, undefined, unfilledBets, balanceByUserId ) const totalShares = sumBy(takers, (taker) => taker.shares) return totalShares - shares }) } export function calculateCpmmSale( state: CpmmState, shares: number, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', unfilledBets: LimitBet[], balanceByUserId: { [userId: string]: number } ) { if (Math.round(shares) < 0) { throw new Error('Cannot sell non-positive shares') } const oppositeOutcome = outcome === 'YES' ? 'NO' : 'YES' const buyAmount = calculateAmountToBuyShares( state, shares, oppositeOutcome, unfilledBets, balanceByUserId ) const { cpmmState, makers, takers, totalFees, ordersToCancel } = computeFills( oppositeOutcome, buyAmount, state, undefined, unfilledBets, balanceByUserId ) // Transform buys of opposite outcome into sells. const saleTakers = takers.map((taker) => ({ ...taker, // You bought opposite shares, which combine with existing shares, removing them. shares: -taker.shares, // Opposite shares combine with shares you are selling for M$ of shares. // You paid taker.amount for the opposite shares. // Take the negative because this is money you gain. amount: -(taker.shares - taker.amount), isSale: true, })) const saleValue = -sumBy(saleTakers, (taker) => taker.amount) return { saleValue, cpmmState, fees: totalFees, makers, takers: saleTakers, ordersToCancel, } } export function getCpmmProbabilityAfterSale( state: CpmmState, shares: number, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', unfilledBets: LimitBet[], balanceByUserId: { [userId: string]: number } ) { const { cpmmState } = calculateCpmmSale( state, shares, outcome, unfilledBets, balanceByUserId ) return getCpmmProbability(cpmmState.pool, cpmmState.p) } export function getCpmmLiquidity( pool: { [outcome: string]: number }, p: number ) { const { YES, NO } = pool return YES ** p * NO ** (1 - p) } export function addCpmmLiquidity( pool: { [outcome: string]: number }, p: number, amount: number ) { const prob = getCpmmProbability(pool, p) //https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=p%28n%2Bb%29%2F%28%281-p%29%28y%2Bb%29%2Bp%28n%2Bb%29%29%3Dq%2C+solve+p const { YES: y, NO: n } = pool const numerator = prob * (amount + y) const denominator = amount - n * (prob - 1) + prob * y const newP = numerator / denominator const newPool = { YES: y + amount, NO: n + amount } const oldLiquidity = getCpmmLiquidity(pool, newP) const newLiquidity = getCpmmLiquidity(newPool, newP) const liquidity = newLiquidity - oldLiquidity return { newPool, liquidity, newP } } export function getCpmmLiquidityPoolWeights(liquidities: LiquidityProvision[]) { const userAmounts = groupBy(liquidities, (w) => w.userId) const totalAmount = sumBy(liquidities, (w) => w.amount) return mapValues( userAmounts, (amounts) => sumBy(amounts, (w) => w.amount) / totalAmount ) } export function getUserLiquidityShares( userId: string, state: CpmmState, liquidities: LiquidityProvision[] ) { const weights = getCpmmLiquidityPoolWeights(liquidities) const userWeight = weights[userId] ?? 0 return mapValues(state.pool, (shares) => userWeight * shares) }