import { FeedItem } from 'web/components/feed/feed-items' import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col' import { Page } from 'web/components/page' import { SiteLink } from 'web/components/site-link' import { Title } from 'web/components/title' export default function MyPage() { return ( <div className=""> Manifold Markets is a novel site where users can bet against each other to predict the outcomes of all types of questions. Engage in intense discussion, have fun with friends, and become better informed all whilst putting play-money where your mouth is. </div> <Title text="Mana" /> <p className=""> Mana (M$) is our virtual play currency that cannot be converted to real money. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold">Its value </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> You can redeem your Mana and we will donate to a  <SiteLink href="/charity" className="font-semibold text-blue-700 "> charity </SiteLink>  on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1. You will be able to redeem it for merch and other cool items soon too! </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold"> Its sets us apart{' '} </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Using play-money sets us apart from other similar sites as we don’t want our users to solely focus on monetary gains. Instead we prioritize in providing a fun, social space to play with friends and facilitating a more informed world through the power of prediction markets. </p> <Title className="pt-2" text="How Probabilities work" /> <p className="px-2"> The probability of a market represents what the collective bets of users predict the chances of an outcome occurring is. How this is calculated depends on the type of market - see below! </p> <Title className="pt-2" text="Types of markets" /> <p className="px-2"> There are currently 3 types of markets: Yes/No (binary), Free response, and Numerical. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold">Yes/No (Binary) </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> The creator asks a question where traders can bet yes or no. The % represents what users believe the probability of the event occuring to be. Check out our{' '} <SiteLink href="http://bit.ly/maniswap" className="font-semibold text-blue-700" > Maniswap doc </SiteLink>  for more info on its automated market maker. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold">Free response</div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> The creator asks an open ended question. Both the creator and users can propose answers which can be bet on. Don’t be intimidated to add new answers! The payout system and initial liquidity rewards users who bet on new answers early. The algorithm used to determine the probability and payout is complicated but if you want to learn more check out this{' '} <SiteLink href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/DPM-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5" className="font-semibold text-blue-700 " > DPM doc </SiteLink> . </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold">Numerical </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Retracted whilst we make improvements. You still may see some old ones floating around though. Questions which can be answered by a number within a given range. Betting on a value will cause you to buy shares from ‘buckets’ surrounding the number you choose. </p> <Title className="pt-2" text="Build your portfolio" /> <p className="px-2"> Generate profits to prove your expertise and shine above your friends on the leaderboards. To the moon 🚀 </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold"> Find inaccurate probabilities </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Use your superior knowledge on topics to identify markets which have inaccurate probabilities. This gives you favorable odds, so bet accordingly to shift the probability to what you think it should be. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold">React to news </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Markets are dynamic and ongoing events can drastically affect what the probability should look like. Be the keenest to react and there is a lot of Mana to be made. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold"> Buy low, sell high{' '} </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Similar to a stock market, probabilities can be overvalued and undervalued. If you bet (buy shares) at one end of the spectrum and subsequently other users buy even more shares of that same type, the value of your own shares will increase. Sometimes it will be most profitable to wait for the market to resolve but often it can be wise to sell your shares and take the immediate profits. This can also be a great way to free up Mana if you are lacking funds. </p> <div className="px-12 py-3 text-xl font-semibold"> Create innovative answers </div> <p className="px-12 text-base"> Certain free response markets provide room for creativity! The answers themselves can often affect the outcome based on how compelling they are. </p> <p className="pt-12"> {' '} Check out our  <SiteLink href="https://docs.manifold.markets/" className="font-semibold text-blue-700 " > docs page </SiteLink>  to learn more! There you will find information about specific market mechanisms, our API, open source projects, bounties, and more detailed guides. </p> <p className="pt-4"> {' '} Still haven't answered your question? Join our  <SiteLink href="https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh" className="font-semibold text-blue-700 " > Discord server </SiteLink>  and one of our team will be happy to talk with you! </p> </Col> </Page> ) }