diff --git a/functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts b/functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts
index 80ce1cc1..8e95a721 100644
--- a/functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts
+++ b/functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts
@@ -1,13 +1,18 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import * as _ from 'lodash'
 
+import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
+import { calculateShares, getProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
+import { getSellBetInfo } from '../../../common/sell-bet'
+import { User } from '../../../common/user'
 
 type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
 
 // Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
 // https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
-// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
-const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json')
+const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
+// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json')
 
 admin.initializeApp({
   credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
@@ -19,36 +24,171 @@ async function recalculateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {
     | undefined
     | { YES: number; NO: number }
 
-  if (contract.phantomShares || !startPool) return
+  if (!startPool) return
 
-  const phantomAnte = startPool.YES + startPool.NO
-  const p = startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
+  await firestore.runTransaction(async (transaction) => {
+    const contractDoc = await transaction.get(contractRef)
+    const contract = contractDoc.data() as Contract
 
-  const phantomShares = {
-    YES: Math.sqrt(p) * phantomAnte,
-    NO: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * phantomAnte,
-  }
+    const betDocs = await transaction.get(contractRef.collection('bets'))
+    const bets = _.sortBy(
+      betDocs.docs.map((d) => d.data() as Bet),
+      (b) => b.createdTime
+    )
 
-  const pool = {
-    YES: contract.pool.YES - startPool.YES,
-    NO: contract.pool.NO - startPool.NO,
-  }
+    const phantomAnte = startPool.YES + startPool.NO
 
-  const totalShares = {
-    YES: contract.totalShares.YES + phantomShares.YES,
-    NO: contract.totalShares.NO + phantomShares.NO,
-  }
+    // const s = ({ YES, NO }: any) => YES + NO
+    // const leftovers = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount) - s((contract as any).oldTotalBets || contract.totalBets)
+    // const poolTotal = s((contract as any).oldPool || contract.pool)
 
-  const update: Partial<Contract> = {
-    mechanism: 'dpm-2',
-    phantomShares,
-    pool,
-    totalShares,
-  }
+    const realAnte = 0 // poolTotal - leftovers
 
-  await contractRef.update(update)
+    // console.log(
+    //   'pool',
+    //   poolTotal,
+    //   'phantomAnte',
+    //   phantomAnte,
+    //   'realAnte',
+    //   realAnte,
+    //   'leftovers',
+    //   leftovers
+    // )
 
-  console.log('updated', contract.slug, 'with', update)
+    if (!(contract as any).oldTotalBets)
+      transaction.update(contractRef, {
+        oldTotalBets: contract.totalBets,
+        oldPool: contract.pool,
+      })
+
+    let p = startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
+
+    const phantomShares = {
+      YES: Math.sqrt(p) * phantomAnte,
+      NO: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * phantomAnte,
+    }
+
+    let totalShares = {
+      YES: Math.sqrt(p) * (phantomAnte + realAnte),
+      NO: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * (phantomAnte + realAnte),
+    }
+
+    let pool = { YES: p * realAnte, NO: (1 - p) * realAnte }
+
+    let totalBets = { YES: p * realAnte, NO: (1 - p) * realAnte }
+
+    // const yesBetRef = firestore
+    //   .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`)
+    //   .doc('auto-yes-ante-' + contract.id)
+
+    // const noBetRef = firestore
+    //   .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`)
+    //   .doc('auto-no-ante-' + contract.id)
+
+    // const yesBet: Bet = {
+    //   id: yesBetRef.id,
+    //   userId: contract.creatorId,
+    //   contractId: contract.id,
+    //   amount: p * realAnte,
+    //   shares: Math.sqrt(p) * realAnte,
+    //   outcome: 'YES',
+    //   probBefore: p,
+    //   probAfter: p,
+    //   createdTime: contract.createdTime,
+    // }
+
+    // const noBet: Bet = {
+    //   id: noBetRef.id,
+    //   userId: contract.creatorId,
+    //   contractId: contract.id,
+    //   amount: (1 - p) * realAnte,
+    //   shares: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * realAnte,
+    //   outcome: 'NO',
+    //   probBefore: p,
+    //   probAfter: p,
+    //   createdTime: contract.createdTime,
+    // }
+
+    // transaction.set(yesBetRef, yesBet)
+    // transaction.set(noBetRef, noBet)
+
+    const betsRef = contractRef.collection('bets')
+
+    console.log('start', { pool, totalBets, totalShares })
+
+    for (let bet of bets) {
+      if (bet.sale) {
+        const soldBet = bets.find((b) => b.id === bet.sale?.betId)
+        if (!soldBet) throw new Error('invalid sold bet' + bet.sale.betId)
+
+        const fakeUser = { id: soldBet.userId, balance: 0 } as User
+
+        const fakeContract: Contract = {
+          ...contract,
+          totalBets,
+          totalShares,
+          pool,
+          phantomShares,
+        }
+
+        const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets } =
+          getSellBetInfo(fakeUser, soldBet, fakeContract, bet.id)
+
+        newBet.createdTime = bet.createdTime
+        transaction.update(betsRef.doc(bet.id), newBet)
+
+        pool = newPool
+        totalShares = newTotalShares
+        totalBets = newTotalBets
+
+        continue
+      }
+
+      const shares = calculateShares(totalShares, bet.amount, bet.outcome)
+      const probBefore = p
+      const ind = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? 1 : 0
+
+      totalShares = {
+        YES: totalShares.YES + ind * shares,
+        NO: totalShares.NO + (1 - ind) * shares,
+      }
+
+      pool = {
+        YES: pool.YES + ind * bet.amount,
+        NO: pool.NO + (1 - ind) * bet.amount,
+      }
+
+      totalBets = {
+        YES: totalBets.YES + ind * bet.amount,
+        NO: totalBets.NO + (1 - ind) * bet.amount,
+      }
+
+      p = getProbability(totalShares)
+
+      const probAfter = p
+
+      const betUpdate: Partial<Bet> = {
+        shares,
+        probBefore,
+        probAfter,
+      }
+
+      console.log('update', { pool, totalBets, totalShares })
+
+      transaction.update(betsRef.doc(bet.id), betUpdate)
+    }
+
+    const contractUpdate: Partial<Contract> = {
+      pool,
+      totalBets,
+      totalShares,
+      phantomShares,
+    }
+
+    transaction.update(contractRef, contractUpdate)
+  })
+
+  console.log('updated', contract.slug)
   console.log()
 }
 
@@ -61,6 +201,7 @@ async function recalculateContractTotals() {
   console.log('Loaded', contracts.length, 'contracts')
 
   for (const contract of contracts) {
+    if (contract.slug !== 'another-test') continue
     const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
 
     await recalculateContract(contractRef, contract)