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"hex-color-regex": { - "version": "1.1.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/hex-color-regex/-/hex-color-regex-1.1.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-l9sfDFsuqtOqKDsQdqrMRk0U85RZc0RtOR9yPI7mRVOa4FsR/BVnZ0shmQRM96Ji99kYZP/7hn1cedc1+ApsTQ==", - "dev": true - }, "hmac-drbg": { "version": "1.0.1", "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/hmac-drbg/-/hmac-drbg-1.0.1.tgz", @@ -9266,18 +9197,6 @@ "minimalistic-crypto-utils": "^1.0.1" } }, - "hsl-regex": { - "version": "1.0.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/hsl-regex/-/hsl-regex-1.0.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha1-1JMwx4ntgZ4nakwNJy3/owsY/m4=", - "dev": true - }, - "hsla-regex": { - "version": "1.0.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/hsla-regex/-/hsla-regex-1.0.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha1-wc56MWjIxmFAM6S194d/OyJfnDg=", - "dev": true - }, "html-tags": { "version": "3.1.0", "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/html-tags/-/html-tags-3.1.0.tgz", @@ -9440,20 +9359,6 @@ "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/is-callable/-/is-callable-1.2.4.tgz", "integrity": "sha512-nsuwtxZfMX67Oryl9LCQ+upnC0Z0BgpwntpS89m1H/TLF0zNfzfLMV/9Wa/6MZsj0acpEjAO0KF1xT6ZdLl95w==" }, - "is-color-stop": { - "version": "1.1.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/is-color-stop/-/is-color-stop-1.1.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha1-z/9HGu5N1cnhWFmPvhKWe1za00U=", - "dev": true, - "requires": { - "css-color-names": "^0.0.4", - "hex-color-regex": "^1.1.0", - "hsl-regex": "^1.0.0", - "hsla-regex": "^1.0.0", - "rgb-regex": "^1.0.1", - "rgba-regex": "^1.0.0" - } - }, "is-core-module": { "version": "2.8.0", "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/is-core-module/-/is-core-module-2.8.0.tgz", @@ -10265,13 +10170,13 @@ "integrity": "sha512-fnWVljUchTro6RiCFvCXBbNhJc2NijN7oIQxbwsyL0buWJPG85v81ehlHI9fXrJsMNgTofEoWIQeClKpgxFLrg==" }, "postcss": { - "version": "8.4.4", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/postcss/-/postcss-8.4.4.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-joU6fBsN6EIer28Lj6GDFoC/5yOZzLCfn0zHAn/MYXI7aPt4m4hK5KC5ovEZXy+lnCjmYIbQWngvju2ddyEr8Q==", + "version": "8.3.5", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/postcss/-/postcss-8.3.5.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-NxTuJocUhYGsMiMFHDUkmjSKT3EdH4/WbGF6GCi1NDGk+vbcUTun4fpbOqaPtD8IIsztA2ilZm2DhYCuyN58gA==", "requires": { - "nanoid": "^3.1.30", - "picocolors": "^1.0.0", - "source-map-js": "^1.0.1" + "colorette": "^1.2.2", + "nanoid": "^3.1.23", + "source-map-js": "^0.6.2" } }, "postcss-js": { @@ -10296,12 +10201,12 @@ } }, "postcss-nested": { - "version": "5.0.6", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/postcss-nested/-/postcss-nested-5.0.6.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-rKqm2Fk0KbA8Vt3AdGN0FB9OBOMDVajMG6ZCf/GoHgdxUJ4sBFp0A/uMIRm+MJUdo33YXEtjqIz8u7DAp8B7DA==", + "version": "5.0.5", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/postcss-nested/-/postcss-nested-5.0.5.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-GSRXYz5bccobpTzLQZXOnSOfKl6TwVr5CyAQJUPub4nuRJSOECK5AqurxVgmtxP48p0Kc/ndY/YyS1yqldX0Ew==", "dev": true, "requires": { - "postcss-selector-parser": "^6.0.6" + "postcss-selector-parser": "^6.0.4" } }, "postcss-selector-parser": { @@ -10582,18 +10487,6 @@ "integrity": "sha512-U9nH88a3fc/ekCF1l0/UP1IosiuIjyTh7hBvXVMHYgVcfGvt897Xguj2UOLDeI5BG2m7/uwyaLVT6fbtCwTyzw==", "dev": true }, - "rgb-regex": { - "version": "1.0.1", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/rgb-regex/-/rgb-regex-1.0.1.tgz", - "integrity": "sha1-wODWiC3w4jviVKR16O3UGRX+rrE=", - "dev": true - }, - "rgba-regex": { - "version": "1.0.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/rgba-regex/-/rgba-regex-1.0.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha1-QzdOLiyglosO8VI0YLfXMP8i7rM=", - "dev": true - }, "rimraf": { "version": "3.0.2", "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/rimraf/-/rimraf-3.0.2.tgz", @@ -10763,9 +10656,9 @@ } }, "source-map-js": { - "version": "1.0.1", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/source-map-js/-/source-map-js-1.0.1.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-4+TN2b3tqOCd/kaGRJ/sTYA0tR0mdXx26ipdolxcwtJVqEnqNYvlCAt1q3ypy4QMlYus+Zh34RNtYLoq2oQ4IA==" + "version": "0.6.2", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/source-map-js/-/source-map-js-0.6.2.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-/3GptzWzu0+0MBQFrDKzw/DvvMTUORvgY6k6jd/VS6iCR4RDTKWH6v6WPwQoUO8667uQEf9Oe38DxAYWY5F/Ug==" }, "sprintf-js": { "version": "1.0.3", @@ -10975,39 +10868,38 @@ } }, "tailwindcss": { - "version": "2.2.19", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tailwindcss/-/tailwindcss-2.2.19.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-6Ui7JSVtXadtTUo2NtkBBacobzWiQYVjYW0ZnKaP9S1ZCKQ0w7KVNz+YSDI/j7O7KCMHbOkz94ZMQhbT9pOqjw==", + "version": "2.2.4", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/tailwindcss/-/tailwindcss-2.2.4.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-OdBCPgazNNsknSP+JfrPzkay9aqKjhKtFhbhgxHgvEFdHy/GuRPo2SCJ4w1SFTN8H6FPI4m6qD/Jj20NWY1GkA==", "dev": true, "requires": { - "arg": "^5.0.1", + "@fullhuman/postcss-purgecss": "^4.0.3", + "arg": "^5.0.0", "bytes": "^3.0.0", - "chalk": "^4.1.2", + "chalk": "^4.1.1", "chokidar": "^3.5.2", - "color": "^4.0.1", - "cosmiconfig": "^7.0.1", + "color": "^3.1.3", + "cosmiconfig": "^7.0.0", "detective": "^5.2.0", - "didyoumean": "^1.2.2", + "didyoumean": "^1.2.1", "dlv": "^1.1.3", - "fast-glob": "^3.2.7", + "fast-glob": "^3.2.5", "fs-extra": "^10.0.0", - "glob-parent": "^6.0.1", + "glob-parent": "^6.0.0", "html-tags": "^3.1.0", - "is-color-stop": "^1.1.0", "is-glob": "^4.0.1", "lodash": "^4.17.21", "lodash.topath": "^4.5.2", "modern-normalize": "^1.1.0", - "node-emoji": "^1.11.0", + "node-emoji": "^1.8.1", "normalize-path": "^3.0.0", "object-hash": "^2.2.0", "postcss-js": "^3.0.3", "postcss-load-config": "^3.1.0", - "postcss-nested": "5.0.6", + "postcss-nested": "5.0.5", "postcss-selector-parser": "^6.0.6", "postcss-value-parser": "^4.1.0", "pretty-hrtime": "^1.0.3", - "purgecss": "^4.0.3", "quick-lru": "^5.1.1", "reduce-css-calc": "^2.1.8", "resolve": "^1.20.0", diff --git a/web/package.json b/web/package.json index 1dd9b2ee..293eb098 100644 --- a/web/package.json +++ b/web/package.json @@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ "dependencies": { "@headlessui/react": "1.4.2", "@heroicons/react": "1.0.5", + "daisyui": "^1.16.2", "next": "12.0.4", "react": "17.0.2", "react-dom": "17.0.2" diff --git a/web/pages/simulator/entries.ts b/web/pages/simulator/entries.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6f9103bf --- /dev/null +++ b/web/pages/simulator/entries.ts @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +type Bid = { yesBid: number; noBid: number } + +// An entry has a yes/no for bid, weight, payout, return. Also a current probability +export type Entry = { + yesBid: number + noBid: number + yesWeight: number + noWeight: number + yesPayout: number + noPayout: number + yesReturn: number + noReturn: number + prob: number +} + +export function makeEntries(bids: Bid[]): Entry[] { + const entries: Entry[] = [] + let yesPot = 0 + let noPot = 0 + // First pass: calculate all the weights + for (const { yesBid, noBid } of bids) { + const yesWeight = + noPot * (Math.log(yesBid + yesPot) - Math.log(yesPot)) || 0 + const noWeight = yesPot * (Math.log(noBid + noPot) - Math.log(noPot)) || 0 + + // Note: Need to calculate weights BEFORE updating pot + yesPot += yesBid + noPot += noBid + const prob = yesPot / (yesPot + noPot) + + entries.push({ + yesBid, + noBid, + yesWeight, + noWeight, + prob, + // To be filled in below + yesPayout: 0, + noPayout: 0, + yesReturn: 0, + noReturn: 0, + }) + } + + const YES_SEED = bids[0].yesBid + const NO_SEED = bids[0].noBid + const yesWeightsSum = entries.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.yesWeight, 0) + const noWeightsSum = entries.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.noWeight, 0) + // Second pass: calculate all the payouts + for (const entry of entries) { + const { yesBid, noBid, yesWeight, noWeight } = entry + // Payout: You get your initial bid back, as well as your share of the + // (noPot - seed) according to your yesWeight + entry.yesPayout = yesBid + (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * (noPot - NO_SEED) + entry.noPayout = noBid + (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * (yesPot - YES_SEED) + entry.yesReturn = (entry.yesPayout - yesBid) / yesBid + entry.noReturn = (entry.noPayout - noBid) / noBid + } + return entries +} diff --git a/web/pages/simulator/index.tsx b/web/pages/simulator/index.tsx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ddd65419 --- /dev/null +++ b/web/pages/simulator/index.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +import React, { Fragment, useState } from 'react' + +import { bids } from './sample-bids' +import { Entry, makeEntries } from './entries' + +function toTable(entries: Entry[]) { + return entries.map((entry, i) => { + return ( + + {i + 1} + {toRowStart(entry)} + {toRowEnd(entry)} + + ) + }) +} + +function toRowStart(entry: Entry) { + if (entry.yesBid && entry.noBid) { + return ( + + +
SEED
+ + + {entry.yesBid} / {entry.noBid} + + + ) + } else if (entry.yesBid) { + return ( + + +
YES
+ + {entry.yesBid} + + ) + } else if (entry.noBid) { + return ( + + +
NO
+ + {entry.noBid} + + ) + } +} + +function toRowEnd(entry: Entry) { + if (!entry.yesBid && !entry.noBid) { + return ( + + N/A + N/A + N/A + N/A + + ) + } else if (entry.yesBid && entry.noBid) { + return ( + + N/A + {entry.prob.toFixed(2)} + N/A + N/A + + ) + } else if (entry.yesBid) { + return ( + + {entry.yesWeight.toFixed(2)} + {entry.prob.toFixed(2)} + {entry.yesPayout.toFixed(2)} + {(entry.yesReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}% + + ) + } else { + return ( + + {entry.noWeight.toFixed(2)} + {entry.prob.toFixed(2)} + {entry.noPayout.toFixed(2)} + {(entry.noReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}% + + ) + } +} + +// Show a hello world React page +export default function Simulator() { + const [steps, setSteps] = useState(10) + + const entries = makeEntries(bids.slice(0, steps)) + + return ( +
+
+
+

+ Dynamic Parimutuel Market Simulator +

+ {/* Range slider that sets the current step */} + + setSteps(parseInt(e.target.value))} + /> + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + {toTable(entries)} +
Order #TypeBidWeightProdMax PayoutReturn
+
+
+
+
+ ) +} diff --git a/web/pages/simulator/sample-bids.ts b/web/pages/simulator/sample-bids.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..547e6dce --- /dev/null +++ b/web/pages/simulator/sample-bids.ts @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +const data = `1,9 +8, +,1 +1, +,1 +1, +,5 +5, +,5 +5, +,1 +1, +100, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10, +,10 +10,` + +// Parse data into Yes/No orders +// E.g. `8,\n,1\n1,` => +// [{yesBid: 8, noBid: 0}, {yesBid: 0, noBid: 1}, {yesBid: 1, noBid: 0}] +export const bids = data.split('\n').map((line) => { + const [yesBid, noBid] = line.split(',') + return { + yesBid: parseInt(yesBid || '0'), + noBid: parseInt(noBid || '0'), + } +}) diff --git a/web/tailwind.config.js b/web/tailwind.config.js index 5daa7207..1a2d0073 100644 --- a/web/tailwind.config.js +++ b/web/tailwind.config.js @@ -15,5 +15,5 @@ module.exports = { variants: { extend: {}, }, - plugins: [require('@tailwindcss/forms')], + plugins: [require('@tailwindcss/forms'), require('daisyui')], }