diff --git a/web/pages/about.module.css b/web/pages/about.module.css new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b346e517 --- /dev/null +++ b/web/pages/about.module.css @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +.div { + /* Tailwind Gray 700 */ + color: #334155; + font-size: 1.1em; +} + +.h1, +.h2, +.h3 { + color: #4338ca; + margin-top: 2rem; + margin-bottom: 1rem; + font-family: 'Major Mono Display', monospace; +} + +.h1 { + font-size: 3rem; +} + +.h2 { + font-size: 2rem; +} + +.h3 { + font-size: 1.5rem; +} + +.p { + margin-bottom: 0.75rem; +} + +.a { + /* Tailwind Indigo 700 */ + color: #4338ca; +} + +.a:hover { + text-decoration: solid underline #4338ca 2px; +} + +.aside { + border-radius: 0.5rem; + /* Tailwind Slate 200 */ + background-color: #e2e8f0; + padding: 1.5rem; +} + +.hr { + margin-top: -0.5rem; + margin-bottom: 1rem; +} + +.ul { + list-style-type: disc; +} + +.ol { + list-style-type: decimal; +} + +.li { + margin-left: 2rem; + margin-bottom: 0.5rem; +} diff --git a/web/pages/about.tsx b/web/pages/about.tsx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a53aa9db --- /dev/null +++ b/web/pages/about.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,314 @@ +import { cloneElement } from 'react' +import { Header } from '../components/header' +import { SEO } from '../components/SEO' +import styles from './about.module.css' + +export default function About() { + return ( +
+ +
+
+ +
+
+ ) +} + +// Return a copy of the JSX node tree, with the style applied +const cloneWithStyle = (node: JSX.Element) => { + // Base case: Node is a string + if (!node.type) return node + + // Find the appropriate style from the module.css + const className = styles[node.type] + + // Recursively call this function on each child + let children = node.props.children + if (children?.map) { + // Multiple child elements + children = children.map(cloneWithStyle) + } else if (children) { + // Single child element + children = cloneWithStyle(children) + } + + // Note: This probably strips out any existing classNames + return cloneElement(node, { className, children }) +} + +// Copied from https://www.notion.so/mantic/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2 +// And then run through https://markdowntohtml.com/ +function Contents() { + return cloneWithStyle( +
+

About mantic markets

+
+

+ Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created + prediction markets. +

+

+ Our mission is to expand humanity's collective knowledge by making + prediction markets accessible to all. +

+

FAQ

+
+

What are prediction markets?

+

+ + Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of + future events. + +

+

+ Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US + presidential election?" +

+

+ If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I + might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). + This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning. +

+

+ Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability + one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to + bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to + the{' '} + + market's best estimate + + . This is the power of prediction markets! +

+

How does Mantic Markets work?

+
    +
  1. + + Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question. + +
  2. +
+

+ You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove its + 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" Then use the information + to plan your trip. +

+

+ You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I enjoy + my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your family and + friends. +

+
    +
  1. + + Anyone can bet on a market using Mantic Dollars (M$), our platform + currency. + +
  2. +
+

+ You get M$ 100 just for signing up, so you can start betting + immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, + you'll win money from people who bet against you. +

+

+ If you run out of money, you can purchase more at a rate of $1 USD to M$ + 100. (Note that Mantic Dollars are not convertible to cash and can only + be used within our platform.) +

+ + +

+ Why do I want to bet with play-money? +

+

+ Prediction markets work best when bettors have skin in the game. By + restricting the supply of our currency, you know that the other bettors + have thought carefully about where to spend their M$, and that the + market prices line up with reality. +

+

By buying M$, you support:

+ +

+ We also have some thoughts on how to reward bettors: physical swag, + exclusive conversations with market creators, NFTs...? If you have + ideas, let us know! +

+

+ Can prediction markets work without real money? +

+

+ Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets + provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '} + + sports betting + {' '} + and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '} + + Google + + . +

+

+ Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on + top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, + bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to + better-calibrated forecasts over time. +

+

How are markets resolved?

+

+ The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 0.5% + of the trade volume for their effort. +

+

+ This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a + diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will + lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market + resolution. +

+

+ What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many + new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective + or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the + Metaverse in 2023?") +

+

Why is this important?

+

+ Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would + not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can + influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to + scientific research and education. +

+

+ Prediction markets can predict{' '} + + which research papers will replicate + + ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most + tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea + is the most promising. +

+

+ By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society + become wiser. +

+

+ How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind? +

+

+ We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin + in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency + they use on our platform. +

+

+ With Mantic Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more + carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts. + The result is more accurate predictions. +

+

+ Mantic Markets is also focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to + quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power + to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own + judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number, + variety, and usefulness of prediction markets. +

+

+ How does betting in a market work on a technical level? +

+

+ Mantic Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on a + dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system. +

+

+ Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the + time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pot when + the event ends). +

+

+ Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that + you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always + getting fair odds. +

+

+ The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low + without any risk to the market creator. +

+

Who are we?

+

Mantic Markets is currently a team of three:

+ +

+ We've previously launched consumer-facing startups ( + Throne,{' '} + One Word), and worked at top + tech and finance companies (Google, Susquehanna). +

+

Talk to us!

+
+

+ Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us — unlike + praying mantises, we don’t bite! +

+ +

+ + Join the Mantic Markets Discord Server! + +

+

Further Reading

+
+ +
+ ) +} diff --git a/web/pages/landing-page.tsx b/web/pages/landing-page.tsx index 51366eb1..19559a9a 100644 --- a/web/pages/landing-page.tsx +++ b/web/pages/landing-page.tsx @@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import { useContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts' import { SearchableGrid } from '../components/contracts-list' import { Col } from '../components/layout/col' import { Header } from '../components/header' +import Link from 'next/link' export default function LandingPage() { return ( @@ -82,9 +83,6 @@ function Hero() { ) } -const notionAboutUrl = - 'https://mantic.notion.site/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2' - function FeaturesSection() { const features = [ { @@ -150,13 +148,9 @@ function FeaturesSection() { - - Learn more - + + Learn more +