+ Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created + prediction markets. +
++ Our mission is to expand humanity's collective knowledge by making + prediction markets accessible to all. +
++ + Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of + future events. + +
++ Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US + presidential election?" +
++ If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I + might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). + This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning. +
++ Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability + one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to + bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to + the{' '} + + market's best estimate + + . This is the power of prediction markets! +
++ You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove its + 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" Then use the information + to plan your trip. +
++ You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I enjoy + my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your family and + friends. +
++ You get M$ 100 just for signing up, so you can start betting + immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, + you'll win money from people who bet against you. +
++ If you run out of money, you can purchase more at a rate of $1 USD to M$ + 100. (Note that Mantic Dollars are not convertible to cash and can only + be used within our platform.) +
+ + ++ Prediction markets work best when bettors have skin in the game. By + restricting the supply of our currency, you know that the other bettors + have thought carefully about where to spend their M$, and that the + market prices line up with reality. +
+By buying M$, you support:
++ We also have some thoughts on how to reward bettors: physical swag, + exclusive conversations with market creators, NFTs...? If you have + ideas, let us know! +
++ Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets + provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '} + + sports betting + {' '} + and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '} + + Google + + . +
++ Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on + top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, + bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to + better-calibrated forecasts over time. +
++ The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 0.5% + of the trade volume for their effort. +
++ This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a + diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will + lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market + resolution. +
++ What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many + new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective + or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the + Metaverse in 2023?") +
++ Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would + not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can + influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to + scientific research and education. +
++ Prediction markets can predict{' '} + + which research papers will replicate + + ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most + tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea + is the most promising. +
++ By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society + become wiser. +
++ We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin + in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency + they use on our platform. +
++ With Mantic Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more + carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts. + The result is more accurate predictions. +
++ Mantic Markets is also focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to + quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power + to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own + judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number, + variety, and usefulness of prediction markets. +
++ Mantic Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on a + dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system. +
++ Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the + time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pot when + the event ends). +
++ Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that + you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always + getting fair odds. +
++ The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low + without any risk to the market creator. +
+Mantic Markets is currently a team of three:
++ We've previously launched consumer-facing startups ( + Throne,{' '} + One Word), and worked at top + tech and finance companies (Google, Susquehanna). +
++ Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us — unlike + praying mantises, we don’t bite! +
+info@mantic.markets
+ + + Join the Mantic Markets Discord Server! + +
+