diff --git a/functions/src/scripts/contest/create-markets.ts b/functions/src/scripts/contest/create-markets.ts index 1659a87a..91058d46 100644 --- a/functions/src/scripts/contest/create-markets.ts +++ b/functions/src/scripts/contest/create-markets.ts @@ -2,8 +2,10 @@ import { CEP_SUBMISSIONS } from './submissions' -// Dev API key for Cause Exploration Prizes -const API_KEY = '188f014c-0ba2-4c35-9e6d-88252e281dbf' +// Dev API key for Cause Exploration Prizes (@CEP) +// const API_KEY = '188f014c-0ba2-4c35-9e6d-88252e281dbf' +// Prod API key for @CEPBot +const API_KEY = 'b5cc8c88-64a3-45fe-a6b5-ac6a224ac56a' type CEPSubmission = { title: string @@ -14,7 +16,7 @@ type CEPSubmission = { // Use the API to create a new market for this Cause Exploration Prize submission async function postMarket(submission: CEPSubmission) { const { title, author } = submission - const response = await fetch('https://dev.manifold.markets/api/v0/market', { + const response = await fetch('https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market', { method: 'POST', headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json', @@ -27,7 +29,8 @@ async function postMarket(submission: CEPSubmission) { closeTime: Date.parse('2022-09-08').valueOf(), initialProb: 10, // Super secret options: - groupId: 'y2hcaGybXT1UfobK3XTx', // CEP Tournament + // groupId: 'y2hcaGybXT1UfobK3XTx', // [DEV] CEP Tournament + groupId: 'cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw', // [PROD] Predict CEP visibility: 'unlisted', // TODO: Increase liquidity? }), @@ -37,7 +40,7 @@ async function postMarket(submission: CEPSubmission) { } async function postAll() { - for (const submission of CEP_SUBMISSIONS.slice(10)) { + for (const submission of CEP_SUBMISSIONS.slice(5)) { await postMarket(submission) } } diff --git a/functions/src/scripts/contest/submissions.ts b/functions/src/scripts/contest/submissions.ts index ff9265be..150c1bfb 100644 --- a/functions/src/scripts/contest/submissions.ts +++ b/functions/src/scripts/contest/submissions.ts @@ -36,18 +36,18 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'mwcvitkovic', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qhn5nyRf93dsXodsw/cause-area-differential-neurotechnology-development', }, - { - title: - 'War Between the US and China: A case study for epistemic challenges around China-related catastrophic risk', - author: 'Jordan_Schneider', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic', - }, { title: 'Cause exploration prize: organophosphate pesticides and other neurotoxicants', author: 'Ben Stewart', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LSDZ22GFryC3dhWvd/cause-exploration-prize-organophosphate-pesticides-and-other', }, + { + title: + 'War Between the US and China: A case study for epistemic challenges around China-related catastrophic risk', + author: 'Jordan_Schneider', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic', + }, { title: 'The (California) case for State Capacity as an EA cause area', author: 'Locke', @@ -59,11 +59,6 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Enginar', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tykEYESbJkqT39v64/directly-purchasing-and-distributing-stunning-equipment-to', }, - { - title: 'Fix Prison Telecom', - author: 'Benj Azose', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z9esvCk8oha69vkbA/fix-prison-telecom', - }, { title: 'Doing good is a privilege. This needs to change if we want to do good long-term. ', @@ -86,6 +81,11 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'arushigupta', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gqzecJGYjqRF6c8o6/cause-area-proposal-international-macroeconomic-policy', }, + { + title: 'Fix Prison Telecom', + author: 'Benj Azose', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z9esvCk8oha69vkbA/fix-prison-telecom', + }, { title: 'Potential new cause area: Obesity', author: 'Akhil', @@ -154,33 +154,38 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Malcolm Collins', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vFfoqL74kmZbydKjp/new-cause-area-demographic-collapse', }, + { + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Economic Growth and State Capacity ', + author: 'Jeffrey Mason', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BkJepw5R2pFc55LEc/cause-exploration-prizes-economic-growth-and-state-capacity', + }, { title: 'Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: Open Philanthropy Cause Exploration Prize Submission', author: 'Tomer_Goloboy', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZPjMemurtzeumwcdw/energy-access-in-sub-saharan-africa-open-philanthropy-cause', }, - { - title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Economic Growth and State Capacity ', - author: 'Jeffrey Mason', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BkJepw5R2pFc55LEc/cause-exploration-prizes-economic-growth-and-state-capacity', - }, { title: 'Peacebuilding and Violent Conflict', author: 'Charlie Dougherty', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dPx7LiNp5MX9RWdfa/peacebuilding-and-violent-conflict', }, { - title: - 'Targeted Treatment of Anemia in Adolescents in India as a Cause Area', - author: 'Akash Kulgod', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SgqBAeoCbQeLxmMoj/targeted-treatment-of-anemia-in-adolescents-in-india-as-a', + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Training experts to be forecasters', + author: 'Sam Abbott', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WFbf2d4LHjgvWJCus/cause-exploration-prizes-training-experts-to-be-forecasters', }, { title: 'Why Genetic Rescue', author: 'David Lang', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ebBPcDxtSckRAoJfo/why-genetic-rescue', }, + { + title: + 'Targeted Treatment of Anemia in Adolescents in India as a Cause Area', + author: 'Akash Kulgod', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SgqBAeoCbQeLxmMoj/targeted-treatment-of-anemia-in-adolescents-in-india-as-a', + }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Fix the Money, Fix the world', author: 'Open Philanthropy', @@ -307,6 +312,11 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Susannah Hares', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nW7itcuaqb2CrC2mC/the-economic-benefits-of-promoting-and-protecting-the-rights-1', }, + { + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Obstetric Violence', + author: 'Tracy Brinkerhoff', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MWWFiZfBvryY8buTw/cause-exploration-prizes-obstetric-violence', + }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Trust and Science', author: 'Open Philanthropy', @@ -350,6 +360,11 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Open Philanthropy', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Kneivf7uokqqNTFAM/cause-exploration-prizes-voluntary-family-planning', }, + { + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Antimicrobial Resistance', + author: 'rhi', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jcnjwv6pHrqT2igRu/cause-exploration-prizes-antimicrobial-resistance', + }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Natural Disaster Preparedness and Research', @@ -361,11 +376,6 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Anne Fitzpatrick', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WiCEyhm2gp74pphHB/cause-exploration-prizes-early-childhood-education', }, - { - title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Obstetric Violence', - author: 'Tracy Brinkerhoff', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MWWFiZfBvryY8buTw/cause-exploration-prizes-obstetric-violence', - }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Lessons from Covid', author: 'Marcel Müller', @@ -383,9 +393,15 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GiW8rvdcNHYJnSnK3/cause-exploration-prizes-measuring-civic-engagement-an', }, { - title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Antimicrobial Resistance', - author: 'rhi', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jcnjwv6pHrqT2igRu/cause-exploration-prizes-antimicrobial-resistance', + title: 'Movable Virtual Fencing Systems and Livestock Welfare', + author: 'Open Philanthropy', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WexugYE3z8xHhYw4r/movable-virtual-fencing-systems-and-livestock-welfare', + }, + { + title: + '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Voluntary Male Circumcision in the prevention of HIV in Nyanza and Western Regions of Kenya', + author: 'Edward Kusewa', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6nxbe5AxtpH2Fjaqj/cause-exploration-prizes-voluntary-male-circumcision-in-the', }, { title: @@ -394,9 +410,9 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LFFWkoeAhXRF4HBwW/cause-exploration-prizes-advanced-market-commitments-for', }, { - title: 'Movable Virtual Fencing Systems and Livestock Welfare', + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Antimicrobial Resistance', author: 'Open Philanthropy', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WexugYE3z8xHhYw4r/movable-virtual-fencing-systems-and-livestock-welfare', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DELryFuR7pNjwRZZC/cause-exploration-prizes-antimicrobial-resistance-1', }, { title: @@ -437,6 +453,12 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Nathan Sidney', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZxF9gYQ4kXubrk2jA/cause-exploration-prizes-open-access-technology-for-the', }, + { + title: + '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Emergence research as a high-impact cause area', + author: 'Open Philanthropy', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iapfxkhbE8vRk5rKX/cause-exploration-prizes-emergence-research-as-a-high-impact', + }, { title: 'Quality matters: Early childhood education and development in Nepal', @@ -471,12 +493,6 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Open Philanthropy', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/q2EJQ7p6bJaSpE3hN/cause-exploration-prizes-legal-efforts-to-increase-american', }, - { - title: - '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Voluntary Male Circumcision in the prevention of HIV in Nyanza and Western Regions of Kenya', - author: 'Edward Kusewa', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6nxbe5AxtpH2Fjaqj/cause-exploration-prizes-voluntary-male-circumcision-in-the', - }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Investment in Fetal, Neonatal and Infant Development ', @@ -489,11 +505,6 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Kokeb Solomon', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KqffgESkpTQBeqaWy/cause-exploration-prizes-can-purpose-in-life-be-a-simple', }, - { - title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Antimicrobial Resistance', - author: 'Open Philanthropy', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DELryFuR7pNjwRZZC/cause-exploration-prizes-antimicrobial-resistance-1', - }, { title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Increasing Cause Area Impact Leverage via Empowerment of Communities', @@ -506,6 +517,11 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Open Philanthropy', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G5tF3TP7btJThcKoJ/cause-exploration-prizes-dynamic-democracy-to-guard-against', }, + { + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Expanding Circles, Improving Lives', + author: 'Chad Patrick Osorio', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/At5eJJxafx6kcQWty/cause-exploration-prizes-expanding-circles-improving-lives', + }, { title: 'Open Climate Data as a possible cause area, Open Philanthropy', author: 'Ben Yeoh', @@ -543,10 +559,9 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9t8c69fdrK9LycxxP/new-cause-area-the-meta-cause-cause-exploration-prize-10', }, { - title: - 'New cause area: Improving diagnosis and treatment of bipolar spectrum disorders', - author: 'Karolina Soltys', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ft7ChZnzyq2SwsgBa/new-cause-area-improving-diagnosis-and-treatment-of-bipolar', + title: 'Cause: biopharma R&D productivity', + author: 'BoxFan', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xzcdN6aGCGbii86BX/cause-biopharma-r-and-d-productivity', }, { title: 'Cause Area Proposal: Paperwork Reduction', @@ -564,9 +579,15 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/g7Rn2fiq52QN8pbJa/cause-exploration-adapting-to-extreme-heat-exposure-in-south', }, { - title: 'Cause: biopharma R&D productivity', - author: 'BoxFan', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xzcdN6aGCGbii86BX/cause-biopharma-r-and-d-productivity', + title: + 'New cause area: Improving diagnosis and treatment of bipolar spectrum disorders', + author: 'Karolina Soltys', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ft7ChZnzyq2SwsgBa/new-cause-area-improving-diagnosis-and-treatment-of-bipolar', + }, + { + title: '[Cause Exploration Prizes] Transnational Surrogacy', + author: 'Kelly Geddes', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uRk85GQh4x8gTgMEm/cause-exploration-prizes-transnational-surrogacy', }, { title: @@ -684,6 +705,12 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'samhbarton', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DC9AZSn4dpFptA8mS/cause-exploration-prize-unfettered-global-internet-access', }, + { + title: + 'Reciprocity & the causes of diminishing returns: cause exploration submission', + author: 'LB', + link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x9towRLtvYidkXugk/reciprocity-and-the-causes-of-diminishing-returns-cause', + }, { title: 'Potential Risks of Advanced Gene Editing Technologies', author: 'Courtney Colston', @@ -695,10 +722,4 @@ export const CEP_SUBMISSIONS = [ author: 'Susannah Hares', link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Xc7AH2Recks3RHteE/the-economic-benefits-of-promoting-and-protecting-the-rights', }, - { - title: - 'Reciprocity & the causes of diminishing returns: cause exploration submission', - author: 'LB', - link: 'https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x9towRLtvYidkXugk/reciprocity-and-the-causes-of-diminishing-returns-cause', - }, ]