diff --git a/web/lib/simulator/entries.ts b/web/lib/simulator/entries.ts deleted file mode 100644 index 535a59ad..00000000 --- a/web/lib/simulator/entries.ts +++ /dev/null @@ -1,73 +0,0 @@ -type Bid = { yesBid: number; noBid: number } - -// An entry has a yes/no for bid, weight, payout, return. Also a current probability -export type Entry = { - yesBid: number - noBid: number - yesWeight: number - noWeight: number - yesPayout: number - noPayout: number - yesReturn: number - noReturn: number - prob: number -} - -function makeWeights(bids: Bid[]) { - const weights = [] - let yesPot = 0 - let noPot = 0 - - // First pass: calculate all the weights - for (const { yesBid, noBid } of bids) { - const yesWeight = - yesBid + - (yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) / - (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) || 0 - const noWeight = - noBid + - (noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) || - 0 - - // Note: Need to calculate weights BEFORE updating pot - yesPot += yesBid - noPot += noBid - const prob = - Math.pow(yesPot, 2) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + Math.pow(noPot, 2)) - - weights.push({ - yesBid, - noBid, - yesWeight, - noWeight, - prob, - }) - } - return weights -} - -export function makeEntries(bids: Bid[]): Entry[] { - const YES_SEED = bids[0].yesBid - const NO_SEED = bids[0].noBid - - const weights = makeWeights(bids) - const yesPot = weights.reduce((sum, { yesBid }) => sum + yesBid, 0) - const noPot = weights.reduce((sum, { noBid }) => sum + noBid, 0) - const yesWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.yesWeight, 0) - const noWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.noWeight, 0) - - const potSize = yesPot + noPot - YES_SEED - NO_SEED - - // Second pass: calculate all the payouts - const entries: Entry[] = [] - - for (const weight of weights) { - const { yesBid, noBid, yesWeight, noWeight } = weight - const yesPayout = (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * potSize - const noPayout = (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * potSize - const yesReturn = (yesPayout - yesBid) / yesBid - const noReturn = (noPayout - noBid) / noBid - entries.push({ ...weight, yesPayout, noPayout, yesReturn, noReturn }) - } - return entries -} diff --git a/web/lib/simulator/sample-bids.ts b/web/lib/simulator/sample-bids.ts deleted file mode 100644 index 547e6dce..00000000 --- a/web/lib/simulator/sample-bids.ts +++ /dev/null @@ -1,58 +0,0 @@ -const data = `1,9 -8, -,1 -1, -,1 -1, -,5 -5, -,5 -5, -,1 -1, -100, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10, -,10 -10,` - -// Parse data into Yes/No orders -// E.g. `8,\n,1\n1,` => -// [{yesBid: 8, noBid: 0}, {yesBid: 0, noBid: 1}, {yesBid: 1, noBid: 0}] -export const bids = data.split('\n').map((line) => { - const [yesBid, noBid] = line.split(',') - return { - yesBid: parseInt(yesBid || '0'), - noBid: parseInt(noBid || '0'), - } -}) diff --git a/web/pages/simulator.tsx b/web/pages/simulator.tsx deleted file mode 100644 index 756e483b..00000000 --- a/web/pages/simulator.tsx +++ /dev/null @@ -1,332 +0,0 @@ -import React, { useMemo, useState } from 'react' -import { DatumValue } from '@nivo/core' -import { ResponsiveLine } from '@nivo/line' - -import { Entry, makeEntries } from 'web/lib/simulator/entries' -import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col' - -function TableBody(props: { entries: Entry[] }) { - return ( - - {props.entries.map((entry, i) => ( - - {props.entries.length - i} - - - - ))} - - ) -} - -function TableRowStart(props: { entry: Entry }) { - const { entry } = props - if (entry.yesBid && entry.noBid) { - return ( - <> - -
ANTE
- - - ${entry.yesBid} / ${entry.noBid} - - - ) - } else if (entry.yesBid) { - return ( - <> - -
YES
- - ${entry.yesBid} - - ) - } else { - return ( - <> - -
NO
- - ${entry.noBid} - - ) - } -} - -function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null; isNew?: boolean }) { - const { entry } = props - if (!entry) { - return ( - <> - 0 - 0 - {!props.isNew && ( - <> - N/A - N/A - - )} - - ) - } else if (entry.yesBid && entry.noBid) { - return ( - <> - {(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - N/A - {!props.isNew && ( - <> - N/A - N/A - - )} - - ) - } else if (entry.yesBid) { - return ( - <> - {(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${entry.yesWeight.toFixed(0)} - {!props.isNew && ( - <> - ${entry.yesPayout.toFixed(0)} - {(entry.yesReturn * 100).toFixed(0)}% - - )} - - ) - } else { - return ( - <> - {(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}% - ${entry.noWeight.toFixed(0)} - {!props.isNew && ( - <> - ${entry.noPayout.toFixed(0)} - {(entry.noReturn * 100).toFixed(0)}% - - )} - - ) - } -} - -type Bid = { yesBid: number; noBid: number } - -function NewBidTable(props: { - steps: number - bids: Array - setSteps: (steps: number) => void - setBids: (bids: Array) => void -}) { - const { steps, bids, setSteps, setBids } = props - // Prepare for new bids - const [newBid, setNewBid] = useState(0) - const [newBidType, setNewBidType] = useState('YES') - - function makeBid(type: string, bid: number) { - return { - yesBid: type == 'YES' ? bid : 0, - noBid: type == 'YES' ? 0 : bid, - } - } - - function submitBid() { - if (newBid <= 0) return - const bid = makeBid(newBidType, newBid) - bids.splice(steps, 0, bid) - setBids(bids) - setSteps(steps + 1) - setNewBid(0) - } - - function toggleBidType() { - setNewBidType(newBidType === 'YES' ? 'NO' : 'YES') - } - - const nextBid = makeBid(newBidType, newBid) - const fakeBids = [...bids.slice(0, steps), nextBid] - const entries = makeEntries(fakeBids) - const nextEntry = entries[entries.length - 1] - - function randomBid() { - const bidType = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 'YES' : 'NO' - // const p = bidType === 'YES' ? nextEntry.prob : 1 - nextEntry.prob - - const amount = Math.floor(Math.random() * 300) + 1 - const bid = makeBid(bidType, amount) - - bids.splice(steps, 0, bid) - setBids(bids) - setSteps(steps + 1) - setNewBid(0) - } - - return ( - <> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Order #TypeBetProbEst Payout
{steps + 1} -
- YES -
-
-
- NO -
- 		- {/* Note: Would love to make this input smaller... */} - setNewBid(parseInt(e.target.value) || 0)} - onKeyUp={(e) => { - if (e.key === 'Enter') { - submitBid() - } - }} - onFocus={(e) => e.target.select()} - /> -
- - - - ) -} - -// Show a hello world React page -export default function Simulator() { - const [steps, setSteps] = useState(1) - const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 100, noBid: 100 }]) - - const entries = useMemo( - () => makeEntries(bids.slice(0, steps)), - [bids, steps] - ) - - const reversedEntries = [...entries].reverse() - - const probs = entries.map((entry) => entry.prob) - const points = probs.map((prob, i) => ({ x: i + 1, y: prob * 100 })) - const data = [{ id: 'Yes', data: points, color: '#11b981' }] - const tickValues = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100] - - return ( - -
- {/* Left column */} -
-

- Dynamic Parimutuel Market Simulator -

- - - - {/* History of bids */} -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Order #TypeBetProbEst PayoutPayoutReturn
-
-
- - {/* Right column */} - -

- Probability of -
- YES -
-

-
- -
- {/* Range slider that sets the current step */} - - setSteps(parseInt(e.target.value))} - /> - -
- - ) -} - -function formatPercent(y: DatumValue) { - return `${Math.round(+y.toString())}%` -}