diff --git a/strmlt.py b/strmlt.py index 6bc1708..26bc6d7 100644 --- a/strmlt.py +++ b/strmlt.py @@ -13,13 +13,43 @@ if __name__ == "__main__": # --- - # if st.checkbox('I am new! Show me instructions.'): - # st.write(""" - # Hey! - # """) + st.sidebar.header("Welcome!") + + st.sidebar.write("Good calibration is vital for good judgemental forecasting. " + "When a calibrated forecaster predicts 70% on 10 quesions, we actually expect " + "around 7 of these to resolve positively. Unfortunately, there is " + "no easy way to see which fractoin of our 70% forecasts resolves " + "positively on Good Judgement Open. Hence I made this web app.") + + st.sidebar.subheader("On cURL") + + st.sidebar.write("I use your cookies for gathering information from GJO: which questions did you forecast on; what did you forecast on; how did they resolve.") + + st.sidebar.write("I do not use them for other purposes, neither I store them. The code is on [github](https://github.com/yagudin/gjo-calibration).") + + st.sidebar.write(""" + 1. Go to e.g [gjopen.com/questions](gjopen.com/questions) in a new tab in Chrome or in Firefox. + 2. Press `Ctrl + Shift + I`, and then navigate to the "Network" tab. + 3. Click on “Reload”, or reload the page. + 4. Right click on the first request, which loads the "questions" document. Click Copy, then "copy as cURL". Paste the results here. + """) + + # st.sidebar.subheader("On plots and methodology") + + # st.sidebar.write(""" + # - I generate two calibration curves: one in linear space and another one in 'odds' space (hopefully it will be easier to see how well calibrated you are around probabilities close to 0 and 1). + # - I generate plots with a modified [sklearn.calibration.calibration_curve](https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.calibration.calibration_curve.html), basically it groups points into bins and computes the proportions of samples resolving positively and the mean predicted probabilities. + # - The confidence intervals are a standart deviations wide. + # - If you hover over a datapoint you can see precise coordinates (x, y) and number of samples (N) contributing to it. + # """) + + st.sidebar.subheader("Authorship and acknowledgments") + + st.sidebar.write("This web app was built by [Misha Yagudin](mailto:mike.yagudin@gmail.com). I am grateful to [Nuño Sempere](https://nunosempere.github.io/) for providing feedback. All errors are mine.") # --- + platform = st.selectbox( "Which platform are you using?", ["Good Judgement Open", "CSET Foretell"],