# Fermi: A terminal DSL for Fermi estimation with distributions This project is a minimalist, calculator-style DSL for fermi estimation. It can multiply, divide, add and subtract scalars, lognormals and beta distributions, and supports variables and mixtures. ## Usage ``` $ fermi 5M 12M # number of people living in Chicago beta 1 200 # fraction of people that have a piano 30 180 # minutes it takes to tune a piano, including travel time / 48 52 # weeks a year that piano tuners work for / 5 6 # days a week in which piano tuners work / 6 8 # hours a day in which piano tuners work / 60 # minutes to an hour =: piano_tuners ``` Here are some real-life examples: [Chance for a Russian male of fighting age of being drafted](https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1829525844169248912), [did the startup Friend burn too much cash](https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1818810770932568308), [how much did Nikita Bier make mentoring?](https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1815169781907042504), [what fraction of North Korea's caloric intake is Russia supporting?](https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1855666428835140078). In general, as a terminal guy, I've found that having zero startup cost makes creating small fermi models much cheaper, and thus happen more often. ## Build instructions Install the [go toolchain](https://go.dev/dl/), then: ``` git clone https://git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/fermi cd fermi make build ./fermi # sudo make install # fermi ``` ## Tips & tricks - It's conceptually clearer to have all the multiplications first and then all the divisions - For distributions between 0 and 1, consider using a beta distribution - The default operation is multiplication If you type "help" (or run fermi -h), you can see a small grammar and some optional command flags: ``` $ fermi -h 1. Grammar: Operation | Variable assignment | Special Operation: operator operand operator: (empty) | * | / | + | - operand: scalar | lognormal | beta | variable lognormal: low high beta: beta alpha beta Variable assignment: =: variable_name Variable assignment and clear stack: =. variable_name Special commands: Comment: # this is a comment Summary stats: stats Clear stack: clear | c | . Print debug info: debug | d Print help message: help | h Start additional stack: operator ( Return from additional stack ) Exit: exit | e Examples: + 2 / 2.5 * 1 10 (interpreted as lognormal) + 1 10 * beta 1 10 1 10 (multiplication taken as default operation) =: x . 1 100 + x # this is a comment * 1 12 # this is an operation followed by a comment * ( 1 10 + beta 1 100 ) / 1% =. y mx x 1 y 2.33 + mx x 30% y 70% exit 2. Command flags: -echo Specifies whether inputs should be echoed back. Useful if reading from a file . -f string Specifies a file with a model to run -n int Specifies the number of samples to draw when using samples (default 100000) -h Shows help message ``` ### Integrations with Linux utilities Because the model reads from standard input, you can pipe a model to it: ``` $ cat more/piano-tuners.fermi | fermi ``` In that case, you will probably want to use the echo flag as well ``` $ cat more/piano-tuners-commented.fermi | fermi -echo ``` You can make a model an executable file by running `$ chmod -x model.fermi` and then adding the following at the top, XD. ``` #!/bin/usr/fermi -f ``` You can save a session to a logfile with tee: ``` fermi | tee -a fermi.log ``` ## Different levels of complexity The mainline code has a bunch of complexity: variables, parenthesis, samples, beta distributions, number of samples, mixtures etc. In the simple/ folder: - f_simple.go (370 lines) strips variables and parenthesis, but keeps beta distributions, samples, and addition and subtraction - f_minimal.go (140 lines) strips everything that isn't lognormal and scalar multiplication and addition, plus a few debug options. ## Roadmap Done: - [x] Write README - [x] Add division? - [x] Read from file? - [x] Save to file? - [x] Allow comments? - [x] Use a sed filter? - [x] Add proper comment processing - [x] Add show more info version - [x] Scalar multiplication and division - [x] Think how to integrate with squiggle.c to draw samples - [x] Copy the time to botec go code - [x] Define samplers - [x] Call those samplers when operating on distributions that can't be operated on algebraically - [x] Display output more nicely, with K/M/B/T - [x] Consider the following: make this into a stack-based DSL, with: - [x] Variables that can be saved to and then displayed - [x] Other types of distributions, particularly beta distributions? => But then this requires moving to bags of samples. It could still be ~instantaneous though. - [x] Added bags of samples to support addition and multiplication of betas and lognormals - [x] Figure out go syntax for - Maps - Joint types - Enums - [x] Fix correlation problem, by spinning up a new randomness thing every time some serial computation is done. - [x] Clean up error code. Right now only needed for division - [x] Maintain *both* a more complex thing that's more featureful *and* the more simple multiplication of lognormals thing. - [x] Allow input with K/M/T - [x] Document parenthesis syntax - [x] Specify number of samples as a command line option - [x] Figure out how to make models executable, by adding a #!/bin/bash-style command at the top? - [x] Make -n flag work - [x] Add flag to repeat input lines (useful when reading from files) - [x] Add percentages - [x] Consider adding an understanding of percentages - [x] Improve and rationalize error messages a bit - [x] Add, then document mixture distributions To (possibly) do: - [ ] Consider implications of sampling strategy for operating variables. - [ ] Fix lognormal multiplication and division by 0 or < 0 - [ ] With the -f command line option, the program doesn't read from stdin after finishing reading the file - [ ] Add functions. Now easier to do with an explicit representation of the stack - [ ] Think about how to draw a histogram from samples - [ ] Dump samples to file - [ ] Represent samples/statistics in some other way - [ ] Perhaps use qsort rather than full sorting - [ ] Program into a small device, like a calculator? - [ ] Units? Discarded: - [ ] ~~Think of some way of calling bc~~