NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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README.md

Nuño's deads imple election simulator

First round: just consider the base rates.

  • Get past electoral college results since 2000
  • Get number of electors for each state with the new census
  • Combine the two to get an initial base rates analysis

This initial approach gives a 25% to republicans winning in the 2024 election. Why is this? Well, consider the number of electoral college votes:

Year Republican electoral college votes
2000 271
2004 286
2008 173
2012 206
2016 304
2020 232
Year Democrat electoral college votes
2000 266
2004 251
2008 365
2012 332
2016 227
2020 232

When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won with Bush and Trump, they won by a smaller amount. Or, in other words, this initial approach doesn't take into account that states are correlated.

Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?

Second round: just consider polls

  • Download and format
  • Read
  • Consider what the standards error should be
  • Aggregate polls?
  • Exclude polls older than one month?
  • ...

Third