You can not select more than 25 topics
Topics must start with a letter or number, can include dashes ('-') and can be up to 35 characters long.
19 lines
531 B
19 lines
531 B
- Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election
|
|
- Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share
|
|
- Better prior by incorporating more past elections
|
|
- Think about how to:
|
|
- Inject error
|
|
- Inject correlated error
|
|
|
|
---
|
|
|
|
Not as good as gallup.
|
|
State uncertainty higher than national.
|
|
Should calculate republican error instead.
|
|
|
|
Final error:
|
|
National drift + state more uncertain than national + not as good as gallup error + idosyncratic state error
|
|
|
|
later: error correlated across states
|
|
|