State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 670.700000
		Mean R: 44.210526
		Std of mean R: 1.917674
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.417674
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.008318
	Poll: {PollId:87569 SampleSize:512 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:7 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 435.200000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 2.395272
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.769361
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895272
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.728908
	Poll: {PollId:87572 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:41.6 Kennedy:9.7 Newsom:32.7 Oliver:0.7 Stein:0.3 Trump:40.3 Whitmer:43.3] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 491.400000
		Mean R: 49.206349
		Std of mean R: 2.255266
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.362453
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.755266
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.386655
	Poll: {PollId:87585 SampleSize:1012 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:47 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:1 Whitmer:52] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 981.640000
		Mean R: 49.484536
		Std of mean R: 1.595772
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.373341
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.095772
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.402859
	Poll: {PollId:87577 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 475.000000
		Mean R: 51.578947
		Std of mean R: 2.293013
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.754460
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.793013
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714072
	Poll: {PollId:87645 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 360.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.635231
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.135231
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87685 SampleSize:771 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 639.930000
		Mean R: 50.602410
		Std of mean R: 1.976388
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.619742
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.476388
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596099
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4053 PollResults:map[Harris:50.70932220322803 Trump:49.290677796771966] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 4053.000000
		Mean R: 49.290678
		Std of mean R: 0.785304
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.183198
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.285304
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.290518

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87687 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Harris:40 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 376.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.578553
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.078553
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87646 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 364.000000
		Mean R: 50.549451
		Std of mean R: 2.620554
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.583037
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.120554
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.569882
	Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 417.680000
		Mean R: 48.913043
		Std of mean R: 2.445938
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.945938
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.356076
	Poll: {PollId:87562 SampleSize:435 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 382.800000
		Mean R: 51.136364
		Std of mean R: 2.554888
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.671761
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.054888
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.645047
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1540 PollResults:map[Harris:49.88250415454923 Trump:50.11749584545077] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1540.000000
		Mean R: 50.117496
		Std of mean R: 1.274114
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.536737
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.774114
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.526402

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87678 SampleSize:1199 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:2 Trump:37 West:1] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1031.140000
		Mean R: 43.023256
		Std of mean R: 1.541848
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708515
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1031 PollResults:map[Harris:56.97674418604652 Trump:43.02325581395349] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1031.000000
		Mean R: 43.023256
		Std of mean R: 1.541953
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708620
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87564 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 521.540000
		Mean R: 51.685393
		Std of mean R: 2.188161
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779419
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.688161
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.734660
	Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 663.640000
		Mean R: 51.063830
		Std of mean R: 1.940463
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.440463
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.668550
	Poll: {PollId:87689 SampleSize:714 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 606.900000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 2.028340
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.807857
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.528340
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757402
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1792 PollResults:map[Harris:48.51792330699522 Trump:51.48207669300478] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1792.000000
		Mean R: 51.482077
		Std of mean R: 1.180620
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.895322
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.680620
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.811075

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87634 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 595.000000
		Mean R: 47.058824
		Std of mean R: 2.046251
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.212917
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.091908
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:595 PollResults:map[Harris:52.94117647058823 Trump:47.05882352941177] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 595.000000
		Mean R: 47.058824
		Std of mean R: 2.046251
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.212917
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.091908

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 628.900000
		Mean R: 49.473684
		Std of mean R: 1.993679
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.493679
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.416420
	Poll: {PollId:87568 SampleSize:1180 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:3 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1050.200000
		Mean R: 52.808989
		Std of mean R: 1.540450
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.965885
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.040450
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915690
	Poll: {PollId:87684 SampleSize:1128 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1015.200000
		Mean R: 51.111111
		Std of mean R: 1.568870
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.760597
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.068870
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.704388
	Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 751.060000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.824453
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.324453
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87588 SampleSize:505 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:49.9] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 486.315000
		Mean R: 51.817238
		Std of mean R: 2.265813
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.788731
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.765813
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.744421
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3931 PollResults:map[Harris:48.82219410302225 Trump:51.17780589697775] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3931.000000
		Mean R: 51.177806
		Std of mean R: 0.797256
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.930206
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.297256
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.818040

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87688 SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:37] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 399.330000
		Mean R: 45.679012
		Std of mean R: 2.492736
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.041509
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.992736
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074394
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:399 PollResults:map[Harris:54.32098765432099 Trump:45.67901234567901] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 399.000000
		Mean R: 45.679012
		Std of mean R: 2.493766
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.041573
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.993766
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074464

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 891.000000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 1.670871
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705
	Poll: {PollId:87560 SampleSize:2083 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1958.020000
		Mean R: 46.808511
		Std of mean R: 1.127652
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.002326
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.627652
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.024952
	Poll: {PollId:87559 SampleSize:2875 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2846.250000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 0.934857
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000078
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.434857
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006872
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:5695 PollResults:map[Harris:53.41713386722666 Trump:46.58286613277333] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 5695.000000
		Mean R: 46.582866
		Std of mean R: 0.661008
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.161008
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001624

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87691 SampleSize:597 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 513.420000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.206651
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.706651
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87582 SampleSize:1046 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Shapiro:46 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1 Whitmer:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1025.080000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.561677
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.061677
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 672.000000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.928373
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.428373
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.333977
	Poll: {PollId:87648 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 376.000000
		Mean R: 48.936170
		Std of mean R: 2.577969
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.339927
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.077969
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364811
	Poll: {PollId:87571 SampleSize:523 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 460.240000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.330654
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.830654
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3046 PollResults:map[Harris:50.36104163794745 Trump:49.638958362052556] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3046.000000
		Mean R: 49.638958
		Std of mean R: 0.905928
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.345119
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.405928
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.398667

State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87576 SampleSize:581 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:6 Trump:38] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 522.900000
		Mean R: 42.222222
		Std of mean R: 2.159940
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000159
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.326606
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000414
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Harris:57.77777777777778 Trump:42.22222222222222] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 522.000000
		Mean R: 42.222222
		Std of mean R: 2.161801
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000160
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.328468
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000418

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87558 SampleSize:1445 PollResults:map[Harris:54 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1430.550000
		Mean R: 45.454545
		Std of mean R: 1.316487
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000277
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.483153
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001089
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1430 PollResults:map[Harris:54.54545454545454 Trump:45.454545454545446] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1430.000000
		Mean R: 45.454545
		Std of mean R: 1.316740
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000278
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.483406
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001091

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87581 SampleSize:656 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 590.400000
		Mean R: 44.444444
		Std of mean R: 2.045028
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003298
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.211695
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006004
	Poll: {PollId:87584 SampleSize:1071 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:49 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1 Whitmer:49] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1038.870000
		Mean R: 46.391753
		Std of mean R: 1.547233
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.009849
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.713899
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.017633
	Poll: {PollId:87686 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 468.060000
		Mean R: 47.126437
		Std of mean R: 2.307283
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.106487
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.473949
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122713
	Poll: {PollId:87570 SampleSize:475 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:41] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 403.750000
		Mean R: 48.235294
		Std of mean R: 2.486813
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.238968
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.653479
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.253008
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2501 PollResults:map[Harris:53.63283061717338 Trump:46.36716938282662] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2501.000000
		Mean R: 46.367169
		Std of mean R: 0.997158
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000135
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.163824
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000900

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87650 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:9 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:52] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 564.000000
		Mean R: 55.319149
		Std of mean R: 2.093432
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:564 PollResults:map[Harris:44.680851063829785 Trump:55.319148936170215] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 564.000000
		Mean R: 55.319149
		Std of mean R: 2.093432
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 593.280000
		Mean R: 51.041667
		Std of mean R: 2.052324
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.552324
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.658409
	Poll: {PollId:87644 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 364.000000
		Mean R: 52.747253
		Std of mean R: 2.616753
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.853111
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.116753
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810962
	Poll: {PollId:87566 SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 453.900000
		Mean R: 51.685393
		Std of mean R: 2.345541
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763792
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.845541
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.723173
	Poll: {PollId:87682 SampleSize:567 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 493.290000
		Mean R: 49.425287
		Std of mean R: 2.251076
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.399243
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.751076
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417261
	Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.799335
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.299335
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325264
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2676 PollResults:map[Harris:49.51593798924638 Trump:50.484062010753604] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2676.000000
		Mean R: 50.484062
		Std of mean R: 0.966511
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.691756
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.466511
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.629329

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Stein:2 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1789.760000
		Mean R: 37.234043
		Std of mean R: 1.142707
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309373
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1789 PollResults:map[Harris:62.765957446808514 Trump:37.23404255319149] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1789.000000
		Mean R: 37.234043
		Std of mean R: 1.142949
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309616
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87583 SampleSize:1034 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:54 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1 Whitmer:48] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 961.620000
		Mean R: 47.311828
		Std of mean R: 1.610051
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.047497
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.110051
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.101334
	Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 540.000000
		Mean R: 47.777778
		Std of mean R: 2.149531
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.649531
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.200812
	Poll: {PollId:87690 SampleSize:743 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 668.700000
		Mean R: 51.111111
		Std of mean R: 1.933068
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.717284
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.433068
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676046
	Poll: {PollId:87667 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:4 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 540.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.151657
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.651657
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 595.650000
		Mean R: 50.526316
		Std of mean R: 2.048568
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.548568
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.581805
	Poll: {PollId:87647 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 372.000000
		Mean R: 48.387097
		Std of mean R: 2.591030
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.266808
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.091030
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.300904
	Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 470.000000
		Mean R: 50.638298
		Std of mean R: 2.306140
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.806140
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589969
	Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 52.083333
		Std of mean R: 1.798163
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.298163
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.817670
	Poll: {PollId:87575 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 704.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.884446
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.384446
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87563 SampleSize:851 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 748.880000
		Mean R: 52.272727
		Std of mean R: 1.825218
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.893467
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.325218
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.835821
	Poll: {PollId:87668 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Oliver:2 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 480.000000
		Mean R: 47.916667
		Std of mean R: 2.280195
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.180447
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.780195
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.226824
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:6852 PollResults:map[Harris:50.10484933653791 Trump:49.89515066346208] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 6852.000000
		Mean R: 49.895151
		Std of mean R: 0.604033
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.431097
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.104033
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.462170

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87567 SampleSize:572 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 491.920000
		Mean R: 54.651163
		Std of mean R: 2.244582
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.980875
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.744582
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.954931
	Poll: {PollId:87683 SampleSize:976 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 858.880000
		Mean R: 53.409091
		Std of mean R: 1.702127
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.977403
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.202127
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.939200
	Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 704.340000
		Mean R: 53.846154
		Std of mean R: 1.878409
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.378409
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.947073
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2055 PollResults:map[Harris:46.143815019901325 Trump:53.85618498009868] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2055.000000
		Mean R: 53.856185
		Std of mean R: 1.099686
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999773
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.599686
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.992037

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% republicans: 0.520766