State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87546 SampleSize:850 PollResults:map[Harris:44.3 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0.4 Stein:0.7 Trump:46.1 West:0.6] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 768.400000
		Mean R: 50.995575
		Std of mean R: 1.803392
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.709545
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.833392
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.706443
	Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 52.083333
		Std of mean R: 1.798163
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.828163
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.872769
	Poll: {PollId:87485 SampleSize:624 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Shapiro:47 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 536.640000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.158383
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.188383
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87540 SampleSize:147 PollResults:map[Biden:35 Harris:45 Kennedy:10 Oliver:2 Stein:2 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 135.240000
		Mean R: 51.086957
		Std of mean R: 4.298479
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.599816
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.328479
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599138
	Poll: {PollId:87575 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 704.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.884446
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.914446
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 595.650000
		Mean R: 50.526316
		Std of mean R: 2.048568
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.078568
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599947
	Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 540.000000
		Mean R: 47.777778
		Std of mean R: 2.149531
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.179531
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.153962
	Poll: {PollId:87563 SampleSize:851 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 748.880000
		Mean R: 52.272727
		Std of mean R: 1.825218
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.893467
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.855218
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.889721
	Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 470.000000
		Mean R: 50.638298
		Std of mean R: 2.306140
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.336140
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607661
	Poll: {PollId:87583 SampleSize:1034 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:54 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1 Whitmer:48] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 961.620000
		Mean R: 47.311828
		Std of mean R: 1.610051
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.047497
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.640051
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050598
	Poll: {PollId:87518 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:46 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 480.000000
		Mean R: 52.083333
		Std of mean R: 2.280195
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.819553
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.310195
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.816418
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:6712 PollResults:map[Harris:49.694514672383555 Trump:50.305485327616445] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 6712.000000
		Mean R: 50.305485
		Std of mean R: 0.610290
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.691659
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.640290
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683356

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87577 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 475.000000
		Mean R: 51.578947
		Std of mean R: 2.293013
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.754460
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.323013
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.751652
	Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 670.700000
		Mean R: 44.210526
		Std of mean R: 1.917674
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.947674
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001477
	Poll: {PollId:87572 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:41.6 Kennedy:9.7 Newsom:32.7 Oliver:0.7 Stein:0.3 Trump:40.3 Whitmer:43.3] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 491.400000
		Mean R: 49.206349
		Std of mean R: 2.255266
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.362453
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.285266
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364187
	Poll: {PollId:87544 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:43.8 Kennedy:4.7 Oliver:0.3 Stein:0.6 Trump:44.1 West:0.5] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 703.200000
		Mean R: 50.170648
		Std of mean R: 1.885507
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.536057
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.915507
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535494
	Poll: {PollId:87585 SampleSize:1012 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:47 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:1 Whitmer:52] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 981.640000
		Mean R: 49.484536
		Std of mean R: 1.595772
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.373341
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.625772
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.375600
	Poll: {PollId:87486 SampleSize:650 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:45 Whitmer:46] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 559.000000
		Mean R: 52.325581
		Std of mean R: 2.112486
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.864524
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.142486
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.861141
	Poll: {PollId:87569 SampleSize:512 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:7 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 435.200000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 2.395272
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.769361
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.425272
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.766581
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4316 PollResults:map[Harris:50.42653852748058 Trump:49.57346147251943] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 4316.000000
		Mean R: 49.573461
		Std of mean R: 0.761051
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.287583
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.791051
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.294873

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87496 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Harris:52 Trump:41] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 465.000000
		Mean R: 44.086022
		Std of mean R: 2.302418
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.005106
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312418
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005272
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:465 PollResults:map[Harris:55.913978494623656 Trump:44.086021505376344] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 465.000000
		Mean R: 44.086022
		Std of mean R: 2.302418
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.005106
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312418
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005272

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87564 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 521.540000
		Mean R: 51.685393
		Std of mean R: 2.188161
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779419
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.218161
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.776318
	Poll: {PollId:87526 SampleSize:573 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Cooper:41 Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 509.970000
		Mean R: 50.561798
		Std of mean R: 2.213963
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.600156
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.243963
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.598845
	Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 663.640000
		Mean R: 51.063830
		Std of mean R: 1.940463
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.970463
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705363
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1695 PollResults:map[Harris:48.895967908444675 Trump:51.104032091555325] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1695.000000
		Mean R: 51.104032
		Std of mean R: 1.214169
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.818401
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.244169
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.812559

State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 672.000000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.928373
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.958373
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.297396
	Poll: {PollId:87571 SampleSize:523 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 460.240000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.330654
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.360654
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87582 SampleSize:1046 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Shapiro:46 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1 Whitmer:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1025.080000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.561677
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.591677
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87545 SampleSize:845 PollResults:map[Harris:45.4 Kennedy:3.4 Stein:0.5 Trump:44.9] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 763.035000
		Mean R: 49.723145
		Std of mean R: 1.810052
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.439217
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.840052
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.440201
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2920 PollResults:map[Harris:50.31203398216997 Trump:49.68796601783002] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2920.000000
		Mean R: 49.687966
		Std of mean R: 0.925273
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.367970
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.955273
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.371969

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87570 SampleSize:475 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:41] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 403.750000
		Mean R: 48.235294
		Std of mean R: 2.486813
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.238968
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.496813
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.239851
	Poll: {PollId:87581 SampleSize:656 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 590.400000
		Mean R: 44.444444
		Std of mean R: 2.045028
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003298
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.055028
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.003432
	Poll: {PollId:87584 SampleSize:1071 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:49 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1 Whitmer:49] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1038.870000
		Mean R: 46.391753
		Std of mean R: 1.547233
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.009849
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.557233
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.010249
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2033 PollResults:map[Harris:53.80763593078278 Trump:46.19236406921723] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2033.000000
		Mean R: 46.192364
		Std of mean R: 1.105703
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000287
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.115703
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000322

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87525 SampleSize:736 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:40 Kelly:43 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 625.600000
		Mean R: 52.941176
		Std of mean R: 1.995579
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.929738
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.025579
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.926752
	Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:19 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.799335
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.829335
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.284534
	Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 593.280000
		Mean R: 51.041667
		Std of mean R: 2.052324
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.082324
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.691548
	Poll: {PollId:87566 SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 453.900000
		Mean R: 51.685393
		Std of mean R: 2.345541
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763792
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.375541
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760986
	Poll: {PollId:87542 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:39.8 Kennedy:5.2 Oliver:0.6 Stein:0.5 Trump:47.5 West:0.6] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 698.400000
		Mean R: 54.410080
		Std of mean R: 1.884612
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990359
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.914612
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.989371
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3143 PollResults:map[Harris:48.250408842450895 Trump:51.74959115754911] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3143.000000
		Mean R: 51.749591
		Std of mean R: 0.891316
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.975173
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.921316
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.971219

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 704.340000
		Mean R: 53.846154
		Std of mean R: 1.878409
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.908409
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.978067
	Poll: {PollId:87567 SampleSize:572 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 491.920000
		Mean R: 54.651163
		Std of mean R: 2.244582
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.980875
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.274582
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979565
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1196 PollResults:map[Harris:45.82281443833281 Trump:54.1771855616672] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1196.000000
		Mean R: 54.177186
		Std of mean R: 1.440733
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.998130
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.470733
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997746

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 628.900000
		Mean R: 49.473684
		Std of mean R: 1.993679
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.023679
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.397402
	Poll: {PollId:87510 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41.8 Harris:45.9 Kennedy:7.7 Oliver:1.3 Trump:50.5] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 964.000000
		Mean R: 52.385892
		Std of mean R: 1.608557
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.930996
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.638557
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.927317
	Poll: {PollId:87543 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:43.3 Kennedy:4.1 Oliver:0.1 Stein:0.5 Trump:45.9 West:0.8] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 713.600000
		Mean R: 51.457399
		Std of mean R: 1.870932
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.782001
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.900932
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778363
	Poll: {PollId:87534 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:44.3 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0.3 Stein:0.3 Trump:45.8 West:1.1] Date:2024-07-22 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 360.400000
		Mean R: 50.832408
		Std of mean R: 2.633404
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.624035
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.663404
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.622683
	Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 751.060000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.824453
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.854453
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87568 SampleSize:1180 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:3 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1050.200000
		Mean R: 52.808989
		Std of mean R: 1.540450
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.965885
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.570450
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.963165
	Poll: {PollId:87588 SampleSize:505 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:49.9] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 486.315000
		Mean R: 51.817238
		Std of mean R: 2.265813
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.788731
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.295813
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.785687
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4954 PollResults:map[Harris:48.5583235357934 Trump:51.441676464206594] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 4954.000000
		Mean R: 51.441676
		Std of mean R: 0.710087
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.978836
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.740087
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.974292

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 417.680000
		Mean R: 48.913043
		Std of mean R: 2.445938
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.475938
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.330328
	Poll: {PollId:87562 SampleSize:435 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 382.800000
		Mean R: 51.136364
		Std of mean R: 2.554888
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.671761
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.584888
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.669893
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:50.023735758544866 Trump:49.97626424145513] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 800.000000
		Mean R: 49.976264
		Std of mean R: 1.767767
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.494644
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.797767
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494733

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87576 SampleSize:581 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:6 Trump:38] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 522.900000
		Mean R: 42.222222
		Std of mean R: 2.159940
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000159
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.169940
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000169
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Harris:57.77777777777778 Trump:42.22222222222222] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 522.000000
		Mean R: 42.222222
		Std of mean R: 2.161801
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000160
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.171801
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000171

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87609 SampleSize:2121 PollResults:map[Biden:52 De la Cruz:2 Harris:54 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-22 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1887.690000
		Mean R: 39.325843
		Std of mean R: 1.124283
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.134283
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Trump:35] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1789.760000
		Mean R: 37.234043
		Std of mean R: 1.142707
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.152707
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3677 PollResults:map[Harris:61.69220519653564 Trump:38.30779480346436] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3677.000000
		Mean R: 38.307795
		Std of mean R: 0.801700
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.811700
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87558 SampleSize:1445 PollResults:map[Harris:54 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1430.550000
		Mean R: 45.454545
		Std of mean R: 1.316487
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000277
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.326487
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000305
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1430 PollResults:map[Harris:54.54545454545454 Trump:45.454545454545446] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1430.000000
		Mean R: 45.454545
		Std of mean R: 1.316740
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000278
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.326740
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000306

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87560 SampleSize:2083 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1958.020000
		Mean R: 46.808511
		Std of mean R: 1.127652
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.002326
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.157652
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.002918
	Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 891.000000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 1.670871
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.700871
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.018829
	Poll: {PollId:87559 SampleSize:2875 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2846.250000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 0.934857
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000078
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.964857
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000124
	Poll: {PollId:87509 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:39.4 Harris:39.3 Kennedy:20.5 Trump:40.2] Date:2024-07-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 477.795000
		Mean R: 50.566038
		Std of mean R: 2.287291
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.597728
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.317291
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596488
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:6173 PollResults:map[Harris:53.10883653420141 Trump:46.89116346579859] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 6173.000000
		Mean R: 46.891163
		Std of mean R: 0.635157
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.665157
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87634 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 595.000000
		Mean R: 47.058824
		Std of mean R: 2.046251
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.056251
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.076307
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:595 PollResults:map[Harris:52.94117647058823 Trump:47.05882352941177] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 595.000000
		Mean R: 47.058824
		Std of mean R: 2.046251
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.056251
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.076307

State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

[ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
[ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
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[ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
[ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
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[ 190,  191):  0.00% (0%)
[ 191,  192):  0.00% (0%)
[ 192,  193):  0.01% (0%)
[ 193,  194):  0.01% (0%)
[ 194,  195):  0.01% (0%)
[ 195,  196):  0.00% (0%)
[ 196,  197):  0.00% (0%)
[ 197,  198):  0.01% (0%)
[ 198,  199):  0.02% (0%)
[ 199,  200):  0.02% (0%)
[ 200,  201):  0.01% (0%)
[ 201,  202):  0.01% (0%)
[ 202,  203):  0.01% (0%)
[ 203,  204):  0.02% (0%)
[ 204,  205): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 205,  206):  0.02% (0%)
[ 206,  207):  0.02% (0%)
[ 207,  208):  0.02% (0%)
[ 208,  209): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 209,  210): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 210,  211): █ 0.04% (0%)
[ 211,  212): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 212,  213): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 213,  214): █ 0.04% (0%)
[ 214,  215): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 215,  216): ███ 0.08% (1%)
[ 216,  217): ██ 0.06% (1%)
[ 217,  218): ██ 0.07% (1%)
[ 218,  219): ███ 0.09% (1%)
[ 219,  220): ███ 0.08% (1%)
[ 220,  221): ███ 0.08% (1%)
[ 221,  222): ███ 0.09% (1%)
[ 222,  223): █████ 0.12% (1%)
[ 223,  224): ██████ 0.16% (1%)
[ 224,  225): █████ 0.14% (1%)
[ 225,  226): █████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 226,  227): █████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 227,  228): ██████ 0.16% (2%)
[ 228,  229): ███████████ 0.28% (2%)
[ 229,  230): ████████████ 0.29% (3%)
[ 230,  231): ████████ 0.20% (3%)
[ 231,  232): ███████ 0.19% (3%)
[ 232,  233): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
[ 233,  234): ████████████ 0.31% (3%)
[ 234,  235): █████████████████ 0.41% (4%)
[ 235,  236): ██████████████ 0.35% (4%)
[ 236,  237): ███████████ 0.28% (4%)
[ 237,  238): ███████████ 0.28% (5%)
[ 238,  239): ███████████████████ 0.47% (5%)
[ 239,  240): ███████████████████████████ 0.68% (6%)
[ 240,  241): ███████████████████████ 0.58% (6%)
[ 241,  242): █████████████████ 0.43% (7%)
[ 242,  243): ███████████████████ 0.46% (7%)
[ 243,  244): ██████████████████ 0.45% (8%)
[ 244,  245): ███████████████████████████████ 0.75% (9%)
[ 245,  246): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (10%)
[ 246,  247): █████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (10%)
[ 247,  248): ██████████████████████████ 0.65% (11%)
[ 248,  249): ████████████████████████████ 0.69% (12%)
[ 249,  250): █████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (13%)
[ 250,  251): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (14%)
[ 251,  252): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (15%)
[ 252,  253): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (16%)
[ 253,  254): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (16%)
[ 254,  255): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (17%)
[ 255,  256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (19%)
[ 256,  257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (20%)
[ 257,  258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (21%)
[ 258,  259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (23%)
[ 259,  260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.24% (24%)
[ 260,  261): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (25%)
[ 261,  262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (27%)
[ 262,  263): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.78% (29%)
[ 263,  264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (30%)
[ 264,  265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.78% (32%)
[ 265,  266): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (34%)
[ 266,  267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (35%)
[ 267,  268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (37%)
[ 268,  269): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.77% (38%)
[ 269,  270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.78% (40%)
[ 270,  271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.80% (42%)
[ 271,  272): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.82% (44%)
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[ 273,  274): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (47%)
[ 274,  275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.07% (49%)
[ 275,  276): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.28% (52%)
[ 276,  277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.76% (53%)
[ 277,  278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (55%)
[ 278,  279): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (57%)
[ 279,  280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.74% (58%)
[ 280,  281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.16% (61%)
[ 281,  282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.42% (63%)
[ 282,  283): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (65%)
[ 283,  284): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (66%)
[ 284,  285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (68%)
[ 285,  286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.95% (70%)
[ 286,  287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.75% (71%)
[ 287,  288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.79% (73%)
[ 288,  289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (74%)
[ 289,  290): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (76%)
[ 290,  291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.69% (77%)
[ 291,  292): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.93% (79%)
[ 292,  293): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (81%)
[ 293,  294): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (82%)
[ 294,  295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (83%)
[ 295,  296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (84%)
[ 296,  297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (86%)
[ 297,  298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (87%)
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[ 299,  300): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (89%)
[ 300,  301): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (90%)
[ 301,  302): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (91%)
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[ 303,  304): ███████████████████████████████ 0.77% (92%)
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[ 310,  311): █████████████████████ 0.53% (97%)
[ 311,  312): ██████████████ 0.35% (97%)
[ 312,  313): ██████████████ 0.35% (97%)
[ 313,  314): ██████████████ 0.34% (98%)
[ 314,  315): █████████████ 0.34% (98%)
[ 315,  316): ███████████ 0.28% (98%)
[ 316,  317): ████████ 0.21% (98%)
[ 317,  318): █████ 0.14% (99%)
[ 318,  319): ███████ 0.18% (99%)
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% republicans: 0.598283