# Nuño's deads imple election simulator

## First round: just consider the base rates.

- [x] Get past electoral college results since 2000
- [x] Get number of electors for each state with the new census
- [x] Combine the two to get an initial base rates analysis

This initial approach gives a 25% to republicans winning in the 2024 election. Why is this? Well, consider the number of electoral college votes: 

| Year | Republican electoral college votes | 
| ---- | --- | 
| 2000 | 271 | 
| 2004 | 286 |
| 2008 | 173 |
| 2012 | 206 |
| 2016 | 304 |
| 2020 | 232 |

| Year | Democrat electoral college votes
| ---- | --- | 
| 2000 | 266 | 
| 2004 | 251 | 
| 2008 | 365 | 
| 2012 | 332 | 
| 2016 | 227 |
| 2020 | 232 | 

When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won with Bush and Trump, they won by a smaller amount. Or, in other words, this initial approach *doesn't take into account that states are correlated*. 

Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?

## Second round: just consider polls

- [x] Download and format
- [x] Read
- [ ] Add date of poll
- [ ] Consider what the standards error should be 
- [ ] Aggregate polls?
- [ ] Exclude polls older than one month?
- [ ] ...

## Third