State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 253.500000
		Mean R: 46.666667
		Std of mean R: 3.133385
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
	Poll: {PollId:87212 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:0.8 Trump:43.8 West:0.4] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 858.000000
		Mean R: 51.048951
		Std of mean R: 1.706596
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.730605
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.706596
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.572920
	Poll: {PollId:87165 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:0] Date:2024-06-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 440.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.383656
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.383656
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1551 PollResults:map[Biden:49.96455043506284 Trump:50.03544956493716] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1551.000000
		Mean R: 50.035450
		Std of mean R: 1.269591
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.511138
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.269591
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.502684

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87205 SampleSize:805 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:39] Date:2024-06-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 692.300000
		Mean R: 45.348837
		Std of mean R: 1.892063
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.006981
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.225396
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074645
	Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1000.000000
		Mean R: 44.800000
		Std of mean R: 1.572565
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1692 PollResults:map[Biden:54.975477161259825 Trump:45.02452283874018] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1692.000000
		Mean R: 45.024523
		Std of mean R: 1.209508
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000019
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.542842
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.025194

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87132 SampleSize:857 PollResults:map[Biden:20 Kennedy:20 Trump:49] Date:2024-06-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 591.330000
		Mean R: 71.014493
		Std of mean R: 1.865731
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.199064
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 1.000000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:591 PollResults:map[Biden:28.98550724637681 Trump:71.01449275362319] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 591.000000
		Mean R: 71.014493
		Std of mean R: 1.866252
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.199585
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 1.000000

State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 861.000000
		Mean R: 56.097561
		Std of mean R: 1.691277
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
	Poll: {PollId:87153 SampleSize:883 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Trump:45] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 750.550000
		Mean R: 52.941176
		Std of mean R: 1.821912
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.946773
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.821912
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693288
	Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 935.250000
		Mean R: 54.022989
		Std of mean R: 1.629656
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
	Poll: {PollId:87177 SampleSize:432 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 345.600000
		Mean R: 53.750000
		Std of mean R: 2.681997
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.918975
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.681997
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.712673
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2892 PollResults:map[Biden:45.6727976766699 Trump:54.32720232333011] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2892.000000
		Mean R: 54.327202
		Std of mean R: 0.926272
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.926272
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810135

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87196 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Trump:45] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 492.000000
		Mean R: 54.878049
		Std of mean R: 2.243421
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.985162
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.243421
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.782690
	Poll: {PollId:87180 SampleSize:534 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 443.220000
		Mean R: 51.807229
		Std of mean R: 2.373430
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.776803
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.373430
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.611625
	Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1212.120000
		Mean R: 52.747253
		Std of mean R: 1.433972
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
	Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 456.000000
		Mean R: 57.894737
		Std of mean R: 2.312093
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2603 PollResults:map[Biden:46.10846066975501 Trump:53.89153933024499] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2603.000000
		Mean R: 53.891539
		Std of mean R: 0.977043
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999966
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.977043
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.782863

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87219 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:13 Oliver:2 Stein:3 Trump:42] Date:2024-06-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 444.000000
		Mean R: 56.756757
		Std of mean R: 2.351129
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997972
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351129
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.856306
	Poll: {PollId:87207 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.7 Stein:1.2 Trump:42.7 West:0.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 820.000000
		Mean R: 52.073171
		Std of mean R: 1.744574
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.882653
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.744574
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640910
	Poll: {PollId:87176 SampleSize:430 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 335.400000
		Mean R: 51.282051
		Std of mean R: 2.729265
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.680730
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.729265
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575549
	Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 952.650000
		Mean R: 52.873563
		Std of mean R: 1.617279
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
	Poll: {PollId:87160 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:11 Oliver:0 Stein:3 Trump:50] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 564.000000
		Mean R: 53.191489
		Std of mean R: 2.101087
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.935615
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.101087
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699548
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3116 PollResults:map[Biden:46.89751448147494 Trump:53.10248551852505] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3116.000000
		Mean R: 53.102486
		Std of mean R: 0.893992
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999740
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.893992
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.736939

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87208 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.1 Kennedy:7.2 Stein:1.6 Trump:42.1 West:1.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 812.000000
		Mean R: 51.847291
		Std of mean R: 1.753458
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.853947
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.753458
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625923
	Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 908.650000
		Mean R: 52.941176
		Std of mean R: 1.655842
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
	Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 546.910000
		Mean R: 51.648352
		Std of mean R: 2.136859
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2267 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76235248460901 Trump:52.237647515391] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2267.000000
		Mean R: 52.237648
		Std of mean R: 1.049081
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.983536
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.049081
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.671182

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87195 SampleSize:555 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:41] Date:2024-06-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 493.950000
		Mean R: 46.067416
		Std of mean R: 2.242751
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.039761
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.242751
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.264366
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Biden:53.93258426966292 Trump:46.06741573033708] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 493.000000
		Mean R: 46.067416
		Std of mean R: 2.244911
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.039906
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.244911
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.264437

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 918.810000
		Mean R: 49.397590
		Std of mean R: 1.649399
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:918 PollResults:map[Biden:50.60240963855422 Trump:49.39759036144578] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 918.000000
		Mean R: 49.397590
		Std of mean R: 1.650126
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357530
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.650126
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457546

State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87216 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.5 Stein:0.6 Trump:50.4 West:1] Date:2024-06-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 850.000000
		Mean R: 59.294118
		Std of mean R: 1.685097
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.018430
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998962
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:850 PollResults:map[Biden:40.70588235294119 Trump:59.294117647058826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 850.000000
		Mean R: 59.294118
		Std of mean R: 1.685097
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.018430
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998962

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1011.930000
		Mean R: 53.932584
		Std of mean R: 1.566922
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
	Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 705.760000
		Mean R: 54.545455
		Std of mean R: 1.874301
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1717.000000
		Mean R: 54.184399
		Std of mean R: 1.202427
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87152 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1086.520000
		Mean R: 51.086957
		Std of mean R: 1.516521
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763234
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.516521
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.578101
	Poll: {PollId:87181 SampleSize:456 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 392.160000
		Mean R: 51.162791
		Std of mean R: 2.524183
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.677479
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.524183
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570728
	Poll: {PollId:87211 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:4.9 Stein:0.9 Trump:44.8 West:0.2] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 870.000000
		Mean R: 51.494253
		Std of mean R: 1.694402
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.811078
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.694402
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.603496
	Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 856.800000
		Mean R: 49.411765
		Std of mean R: 1.708049
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3205 PollResults:map[Biden:49.24098730923294 Trump:50.75901269076706] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3205.000000
		Mean R: 50.759013
		Std of mean R: 0.883092
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.804966
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.883092
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.561762

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 385.120000
		Mean R: 66.265060
		Std of mean R: 2.409263
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 385.000000
		Mean R: 66.265060
		Std of mean R: 2.409639
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87167 SampleSize:1098 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:31] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 944.280000
		Mean R: 36.046512
		Std of mean R: 1.562476
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895809
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:944 PollResults:map[Biden:63.95348837209303 Trump:36.04651162790697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 944.000000
		Mean R: 36.046512
		Std of mean R: 1.562708
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.896041
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87178 SampleSize:471 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 390.930000
		Mean R: 53.012048
		Std of mean R: 2.524242
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.883614
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.524242
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677841
	Poll: {PollId:87213 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:37.4 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:0.9 Trump:44.9 West:1.4] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 823.000000
		Mean R: 54.556501
		Std of mean R: 1.735638
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995671
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.735638
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.786524
	Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 962.400000
		Mean R: 53.750000
		Std of mean R: 1.607190
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2176 PollResults:map[Biden:46.077570956610444 Trump:53.92242904338956] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2176.000000
		Mean R: 53.922429
		Std of mean R: 1.068563
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999879
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.068563
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780497

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87209 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41.9 Kennedy:5.2 Stein:0.8 Trump:44 West:1.2] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 859.000000
		Mean R: 51.222352
		Std of mean R: 1.705468
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763228
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.705468
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.584821
	Poll: {PollId:87179 SampleSize:594 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:37] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 433.620000
		Mean R: 50.684932
		Std of mean R: 2.400903
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.612285
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.400903
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.542608
	Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 628.140000
		Mean R: 49.425287
		Std of mean R: 1.994863
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
	Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 648.940000
		Mean R: 50.656455
		Std of mean R: 1.962593
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2569 PollResults:map[Biden:49.4505195158968 Trump:50.549480484103206] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2569.000000
		Mean R: 50.549480
		Std of mean R: 0.986420
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.711252
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.986420
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543873

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87175 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Oliver:2 Trump:50] Date:2024-06-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 518.240000
		Mean R: 60.975610
		Std of mean R: 2.142795
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.142795
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.963011
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:518 PollResults:map[Biden:39.02439024390244 Trump:60.97560975609756] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 518.000000
		Mean R: 60.975610
		Std of mean R: 2.143292
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.143292
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.962999

State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 525.000000
		Mean R: 36.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.094892
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:525 PollResults:map[Biden:64 Trump:36] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 525.000000
		Mean R: 36.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.094892
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87203 SampleSize:1200 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:2] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1020.000000
		Mean R: 54.117647
		Std of mean R: 1.560243
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995844
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.893576
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.922636
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1020 PollResults:map[Biden:45.88235294117647 Trump:54.11764705882353] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1020.000000
		Mean R: 54.117647
		Std of mean R: 1.560243
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995844
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.893576
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.922636

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 680.800000
		Mean R: 47.708578
		Std of mean R: 1.914272
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
	Poll: {PollId:87173 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 552.000000
		Mean R: 51.086957
		Std of mean R: 2.127638
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.695281
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.460972
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.623263
	Poll: {PollId:87198 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:41] Date:2024-06-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 550.880000
		Mean R: 46.590909
		Std of mean R: 2.125346
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.054355
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.458680
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.162149
	Poll: {PollId:87210 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.9 Kennedy:6.3 Stein:1.1 Trump:41.6 West:0.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 825.000000
		Mean R: 50.424242
		Std of mean R: 1.740714
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.596275
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.074047
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.554883
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2608 PollResults:map[Biden:50.95373905576766 Trump:49.04626094423233] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2608.000000
		Mean R: 49.046261
		Std of mean R: 0.978897
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.164954
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312231
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.339995

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87214 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Trump:57] Date:2024-06-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 470.000000
		Mean R: 60.638298
		Std of mean R: 2.253520
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.586854
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998491
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:39.361702127659576 Trump:60.638297872340424] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 470.000000
		Mean R: 60.638298
		Std of mean R: 2.253520
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.586854
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998491

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

[ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
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[ 187,  188): █ 0.02% (0%)
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[ 193,  194): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 194,  195): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 195,  196): ██ 0.03% (0%)
[ 196,  197): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 197,  198): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 198,  199): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 199,  200): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 200,  201): ███ 0.05% (1%)
[ 201,  202): ██ 0.04% (1%)
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[ 211,  212): ███████ 0.12% (2%)
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[ 218,  219): ██████████ 0.18% (3%)
[ 219,  220): ███████████ 0.19% (3%)
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[ 221,  222): ███████████████ 0.26% (3%)
[ 222,  223): ██████████████ 0.24% (4%)
[ 223,  224): ███████████████ 0.25% (4%)
[ 224,  225): ████████████████ 0.27% (4%)
[ 225,  226): █████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
[ 226,  227): ██████████████████ 0.30% (5%)
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[ 228,  229): ████████████████████ 0.33% (5%)
[ 229,  230): ██████████████████████ 0.36% (6%)
[ 230,  231): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
[ 231,  232): █████████████████████████ 0.41% (6%)
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[ 236,  237): █████████████████████████████ 0.49% (9%)
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[ 238,  239): █████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (10%)
[ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (10%)
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[ 241,  242): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (12%)
[ 242,  243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (12%)
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[ 244,  245): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (14%)
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[ 246,  247): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (15%)
[ 247,  248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (16%)
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[ 250,  251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (19%)
[ 251,  252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (20%)
[ 252,  253): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (21%)
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[ 254,  255): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%)
[ 255,  256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (24%)
[ 256,  257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (25%)
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% republicans: 0.589444