State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 522.880000
		Mean R: 48.837209
		Std of mean R: 2.186007
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 522.000000
		Mean R: 48.837209
		Std of mean R: 2.187849
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 768.000000
		Mean R: 46.614583
		Std of mean R: 1.800079
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 768.000000
		Mean R: 46.614583
		Std of mean R: 1.800079
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 438.600000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 2.385970
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419
	Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 534.000000
		Mean R: 52.808989
		Std of mean R: 2.160294
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582
	Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 377.250000
		Mean R: 52.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.572217
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158
	Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 420.000000
		Mean R: 52.857143
		Std of mean R: 2.435764
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1769.000000
		Mean R: 52.389186
		Std of mean R: 1.187435
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 743.750000
		Mean R: 54.117647
		Std of mean R: 1.827169
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788
	Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 838.000000
		Mean R: 58.711217
		Std of mean R: 1.700805
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1581.000000
		Mean R: 56.551288
		Std of mean R: 1.246648
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 546.000000
		Mean R: 51.648352
		Std of mean R: 2.138639
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
	Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 680.000000
		Mean R: 48.235294
		Std of mean R: 1.916218
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302
	Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 882.960000
		Mean R: 51.282051
		Std of mean R: 1.682119
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075
	Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 658.750000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 1.946879
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263
	Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 353.420000
		Mean R: 48.780488
		Std of mean R: 2.658859
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3121.000000
		Mean R: 50.500940
		Std of mean R: 0.894955
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 830.000000
		Mean R: 52.289157
		Std of mean R: 1.733705
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055
	Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 552.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.128141
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1382.000000
		Mean R: 51.374819
		Std of mean R: 1.344472
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 921.400000
		Mean R: 36.470588
		Std of mean R: 1.585750
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 921.000000
		Mean R: 36.470588
		Std of mean R: 1.586094
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 522.000000
		Mean R: 50.574713
		Std of mean R: 2.188296
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862
	Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 646.000000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 1.965998
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1168.000000
		Mean R: 51.232877
		Std of mean R: 1.462570
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648

State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 883.920000
		Mean R: 51.724138
		Std of mean R: 1.680758
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826
	Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1106.790000
		Mean R: 51.898734
		Std of mean R: 1.501841
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868
	Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 493.800000
		Mean R: 52.612394
		Std of mean R: 2.246989
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756
	Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 526.440000
		Mean R: 52.439024
		Std of mean R: 2.176598
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018
	Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 552.000000
		Mean R: 53.260870
		Std of mean R: 2.123611
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3562.000000
		Mean R: 52.245190
		Std of mean R: 0.836922
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 929.000000
		Mean R: 54.574812
		Std of mean R: 1.633566
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158
	Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 938.280000
		Mean R: 57.142857
		Std of mean R: 1.615572
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1867.000000
		Mean R: 55.865216
		Std of mean R: 1.149183
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 510.000000
		Mean R: 43.529412
		Std of mean R: 2.195419
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 510.000000
		Mean R: 43.529412
		Std of mean R: 2.195419
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 556.160000
		Mean R: 44.318182
		Std of mean R: 2.106434
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 556.000000
		Mean R: 44.318182
		Std of mean R: 2.106737
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 492.800000
		Mean R: 51.250000
		Std of mean R: 2.251640
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429
	Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 558.000000
		Mean R: 51.612903
		Std of mean R: 2.115567
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661
	Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 811.780000
		Mean R: 54.054054
		Std of mean R: 1.749116
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973
	Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 852.000000
		Mean R: 52.347418
		Std of mean R: 1.711083
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749
	Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 587.052000
		Mean R: 51.932367
		Std of mean R: 2.062088
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3301.000000
		Mean R: 52.405295
		Std of mean R: 0.869249
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 711.020000
		Mean R: 65.753425
		Std of mean R: 1.779618
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 711.000000
		Mean R: 65.753425
		Std of mean R: 1.779643
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 552.000000
		Mean R: 52.173913
		Std of mean R: 2.126129
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 552.000000
		Mean R: 52.173913
		Std of mean R: 2.126129
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841

State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 741.480000
		Mean R: 37.837838
		Std of mean R: 1.781052
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 741.000000
		Mean R: 37.837838
		Std of mean R: 1.781628
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

[ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
[ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
[ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
[ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
[ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
[ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
[ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
[ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
[ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
[ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
[ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
[ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
[ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
[ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
[ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
[ 146,  147):  0.00% (0%)
[ 147,  148):  0.00% (0%)
[ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
[ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
[ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
[ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
[ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
[ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
[ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
[ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
[ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
[ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
[ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
[ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
[ 160,  161):  0.00% (0%)
[ 161,  162):  0.00% (0%)
[ 162,  163):  0.00% (0%)
[ 163,  164):  0.00% (0%)
[ 164,  165):  0.00% (0%)
[ 165,  166):  0.00% (0%)
[ 166,  167):  0.00% (0%)
[ 167,  168):  0.00% (0%)
[ 168,  169):  0.00% (0%)
[ 169,  170):  0.00% (0%)
[ 170,  171):  0.00% (0%)
[ 171,  172):  0.00% (0%)
[ 172,  173):  0.00% (0%)
[ 173,  174):  0.00% (0%)
[ 174,  175):  0.00% (0%)
[ 175,  176):  0.00% (0%)
[ 176,  177):  0.01% (0%)
[ 177,  178):  0.00% (0%)
[ 178,  179):  0.01% (0%)
[ 179,  180):  0.00% (0%)
[ 180,  181):  0.00% (0%)
[ 181,  182):  0.01% (0%)
[ 182,  183):  0.01% (0%)
[ 183,  184):  0.01% (0%)
[ 184,  185):  0.01% (0%)
[ 185,  186):  0.01% (0%)
[ 186,  187):  0.01% (0%)
[ 187,  188):  0.01% (0%)
[ 188,  189):  0.02% (0%)
[ 189,  190):  0.02% (0%)
[ 190,  191):  0.01% (0%)
[ 191,  192):  0.01% (0%)
[ 192,  193):  0.02% (0%)
[ 193,  194): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 194,  195):  0.02% (0%)
[ 195,  196):  0.02% (0%)
[ 196,  197):  0.02% (0%)
[ 197,  198): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 198,  199): █ 0.04% (0%)
[ 199,  200): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 200,  201): █ 0.04% (0%)
[ 201,  202): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 202,  203): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 203,  204): ██ 0.06% (1%)
[ 204,  205): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 205,  206): ██ 0.06% (1%)
[ 206,  207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 207,  208): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 208,  209): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 209,  210): ███ 0.09% (1%)
[ 210,  211): ███ 0.08% (1%)
[ 211,  212): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 212,  213): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 213,  214): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 214,  215): █████ 0.12% (2%)
[ 215,  216): █████ 0.12% (2%)
[ 216,  217): ██████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 217,  218): ██████ 0.15% (2%)
[ 218,  219): ███████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 219,  220): ███████ 0.17% (2%)
[ 220,  221): ████████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 221,  222): ████████ 0.20% (3%)
[ 222,  223): █████████ 0.21% (3%)
[ 223,  224): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
[ 224,  225): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
[ 225,  226): ██████████ 0.23% (4%)
[ 226,  227): ██████████ 0.24% (4%)
[ 227,  228): ████████████ 0.29% (4%)
[ 228,  229): ██████████████ 0.32% (4%)
[ 229,  230): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
[ 230,  231): ███████████████ 0.35% (5%)
[ 231,  232): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
[ 232,  233): ████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
[ 233,  234): ███████████████████ 0.44% (6%)
[ 234,  235): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
[ 235,  236): ██████████████████ 0.41% (7%)
[ 236,  237): ████████████████████ 0.45% (8%)
[ 237,  238): ███████████████████████ 0.51% (8%)
[ 238,  239): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
[ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████ 0.65% (9%)
[ 240,  241): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%)
[ 241,  242): ████████████████████████ 0.54% (11%)
[ 242,  243): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (11%)
[ 243,  244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (12%)
[ 244,  245): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (13%)
[ 245,  246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (13%)
[ 246,  247): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (14%)
[ 247,  248): ███████████████████████████████ 0.71% (15%)
[ 248,  249): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (16%)
[ 249,  250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (17%)
[ 250,  251): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (18%)
[ 251,  252): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (19%)
[ 252,  253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%)
[ 253,  254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.01% (21%)
[ 254,  255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (22%)
[ 255,  256): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (23%)
[ 256,  257): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (24%)
[ 257,  258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%)
[ 258,  259): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (26%)
[ 259,  260): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (27%)
[ 260,  261): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (29%)
[ 261,  262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (30%)
[ 262,  263): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (31%)
[ 263,  264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (33%)
[ 264,  265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (34%)
[ 265,  266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (35%)
[ 266,  267): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (37%)
[ 267,  268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (38%)
[ 268,  269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (40%)
[ 269,  270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (41%)
[ 270,  271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (43%)
[ 271,  272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (44%)
[ 272,  273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (46%)
[ 273,  274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (47%)
[ 274,  275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (49%)
[ 275,  276): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (50%)
[ 276,  277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (52%)
[ 277,  278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (53%)
[ 278,  279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (55%)
[ 279,  280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (56%)
[ 280,  281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (58%)
[ 281,  282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (60%)
[ 282,  283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (61%)
[ 283,  284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (62%)
[ 284,  285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
[ 285,  286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (65%)
[ 286,  287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (67%)
[ 287,  288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (68%)
[ 288,  289): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (69%)
[ 289,  290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (71%)
[ 290,  291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (72%)
[ 291,  292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (74%)
[ 292,  293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (75%)
[ 293,  294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (76%)
[ 294,  295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.28% (77%)
[ 295,  296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (79%)
[ 296,  297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (80%)
[ 297,  298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (81%)
[ 298,  299): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (82%)
[ 299,  300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (83%)
[ 300,  301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (84%)
[ 301,  302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (85%)
[ 302,  303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%)
[ 303,  304): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%)
[ 304,  305): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (88%)
[ 305,  306): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (89%)
[ 306,  307): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (90%)
[ 307,  308): ████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (90%)
[ 308,  309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (91%)
[ 309,  310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%)
[ 310,  311): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (92%)
[ 311,  312): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (93%)
[ 312,  313): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%)
[ 313,  314): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%)
[ 314,  315): ███████████████████████ 0.52% (95%)
[ 315,  316): ████████████████████ 0.46% (95%)
[ 316,  317): ████████████████████ 0.45% (96%)
[ 317,  318): ████████████████ 0.37% (96%)
[ 318,  319): ████████████████ 0.36% (96%)
[ 319,  320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
[ 320,  321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%)
[ 321,  322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%)
[ 322,  323): ████████████ 0.28% (98%)
[ 323,  324): ███████████ 0.26% (98%)
[ 324,  325): ██████████ 0.22% (98%)
[ 325,  326): ████████ 0.19% (98%)
[ 326,  327): ████████ 0.18% (98%)
[ 327,  328): ██████ 0.14% (99%)
[ 328,  329): ██████ 0.15% (99%)
[ 329,  330): ████████ 0.19% (99%)
[ 330,  331): █████ 0.13% (99%)
[ 331,  332): ███ 0.09% (99%)
[ 332,  333): ████ 0.10% (99%)
[ 333,  334): ████ 0.10% (99%)
[ 334,  335): ████ 0.10% (99%)
[ 335,  336): ████ 0.09% (100%)
[ 336,  337): ███ 0.08% (100%)
[ 337,  338): ██ 0.06% (100%)
[ 338,  339): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 339,  340): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 340,  341): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 341,  342):  0.02% (100%)
[ 342,  343): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 343,  344): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 344,  345): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 345,  346):  0.01% (100%)
[ 346,  347):  0.01% (100%)
[ 347,  348):  0.02% (100%)
[ 348,  349):  0.01% (100%)
[ 349,  350):  0.01% (100%)
[ 350,  351):  0.01% (100%)
[ 351,  352):  0.00% (100%)
[ 352,  353):  0.01% (100%)
[ 353,  354):  0.01% (100%)
[ 354,  355):  0.00% (100%)
[ 355,  356):  0.00% (100%)
[ 356,  357):  0.00% (100%)
[ 357,  358):  0.00% (100%)
[ 358,  359):  0.00% (100%)
[ 359,  360):  0.00% (100%)
[ 360,  361):  0.00% (100%)
[ 361,  362):  0.00% (100%)
[ 362,  363):  0.00% (100%)
[ 363,  364):  0.00% (100%)
[ 364,  365):  0.00% (100%)
[ 365,  366):  0.00% (100%)
[ 366,  367):  0.00% (100%)
[ 367,  368):  0.00% (100%)
[ 368,  369):  0.00% (100%)
[ 369,  370):  0.00% (100%)
[ 370,  371):  0.00% (100%)
[ 371,  372):  0.00% (100%)
[ 372,  373):  0.00% (100%)
[ 373,  374):  0.00% (100%)
[ 374,  375):  0.00% (100%)
[ 375,  376):  0.00% (100%)
[ 376,  377):  0.00% (100%)
[ 377,  378):  0.00% (100%)
[ 378,  379):  0.00% (100%)
[ 379,  380):  0.00% (100%)
[ 380,  381):  0.00% (100%)
[ 381,  382):  0.00% (100%)
[ 382,  383):  0.00% (100%)
[ 383,  384):  0.00% (100%)
[ 384,  385):  0.00% (100%)
[ 385,  386):  0.00% (100%)
[ 386,  387):  0.00% (100%)
[ 387,  388):  0.00% (100%)
[ 388,  389):  0.00% (100%)
[ 389,  390):  0.00% (100%)
[ 390,  391):  0.00% (100%)
[ 391,  392):  0.00% (100%)
[ 392,  393):  0.00% (100%)
[ 393,  394):  0.00% (100%)
[ 394,  395):  0.00% (100%)
[ 395,  396):  0.00% (100%)
[ 396,  397):  0.00% (100%)
[ 397,  398):  0.00% (100%)
[ 398,  399):  0.00% (100%)
[ 399,  400):  0.00% (100%)

% republicans: 0.588200