State: New Hampshire Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 891.000000 Mean R: 46.464646 Std of mean R: 1.670871 Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:891 PollResults:map[Harris:53.53535353535354 Trump:46.464646464646464] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 891.000000 Mean R: 46.464646 Std of mean R: 1.670871 Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705 State: New Mexico Votes: 5 History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 Poll: {PollId:87688 SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:37] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 399.330000 Mean R: 45.679012 Std of mean R: 2.492736 Poll says chance of R win: 0.041509 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.992736 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074394 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:399 PollResults:map[Harris:54.32098765432099 Trump:45.67901234567901] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 399.000000 Mean R: 45.679012 Std of mean R: 2.493766 Poll says chance of R win: 0.041573 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.993766 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074464 State: Arkansas Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Colorado Votes: 10 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 State: Kentucky Votes: 8 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Maine Votes: 4 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Minnesota Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 Poll: {PollId:87686 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 468.060000 Mean R: 47.126437 Std of mean R: 2.307283 Poll says chance of R win: 0.106487 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.473949 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122713 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Harris:52.87356321839081 Trump:47.12643678160919] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 468.000000 Mean R: 47.126437 Std of mean R: 2.307431 Poll says chance of R win: 0.106501 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.474097 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122728 State: Mississippi Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Vermont Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: North Carolina Votes: 16 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 Poll: {PollId:87718 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} Sample size: 940.000000 Mean R: 52.127660 Std of mean R: 1.629343 Poll says chance of R win: 0.904196 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.129343 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.841153 Poll: {PollId:87711 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:44.1 Kennedy:3.6 Oliver:0.6 Stein:0.4 Terry:0 Trump:47.2] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 547.800000 Mean R: 51.697700 Std of mean R: 2.135052 Poll says chance of R win: 0.786739 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.635052 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.740302 Poll: {PollId:87689 SampleSize:714 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 606.900000 Mean R: 51.764706 Std of mean R: 2.028340 Poll says chance of R win: 0.807857 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.528340 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757402 Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 663.640000 Mean R: 51.063830 Std of mean R: 1.940463 Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.440463 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.668550 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2758 PollResults:map[Harris:48.29353886757978 Trump:51.70646113242023] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 2758.000000 Mean R: 51.706461 Std of mean R: 0.951524 Poll says chance of R win: 0.963545 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.451524 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.880129 State: North Dakota Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Alabama Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Alaska Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Delaware Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Illinois Votes: 19 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Indiana Votes: 11 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 State: Nevada Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 Poll: {PollId:87717 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} Sample size: 930.000000 Mean R: 51.612903 Std of mean R: 1.638711 Poll says chance of R win: 0.837504 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.138711 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.774620 Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 417.680000 Mean R: 48.913043 Std of mean R: 2.445938 Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.945938 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.356076 Poll: {PollId:87687 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Harris:40 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 376.000000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 2.578553 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.078553 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Poll: {PollId:87646 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 364.000000 Mean R: 50.549451 Std of mean R: 2.620554 Poll says chance of R win: 0.583037 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.120554 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.569882 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2087 PollResults:map[Harris:49.4031652360515 Trump:50.59683476394849] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 2087.000000 Mean R: 50.596835 Std of mean R: 1.094404 Poll says chance of R win: 0.707244 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.594404 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.645921 State: Oklahoma Votes: 7 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: South Dakota Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Wisconsin Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 672.000000 Mean R: 48.958333 Std of mean R: 1.928373 Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.428373 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.333977 Poll: {PollId:87691 SampleSize:597 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 513.420000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 2.206651 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.706651 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Poll: {PollId:87714 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 776.000000 Mean R: 50.515464 Std of mean R: 1.794800 Poll says chance of R win: 0.613020 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.294800 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.588864 Poll: {PollId:87648 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 376.000000 Mean R: 48.936170 Std of mean R: 2.577969 Poll says chance of R win: 0.339927 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.077969 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364811 Poll: {PollId:87702 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 744.000000 Mean R: 48.387097 Std of mean R: 1.832135 Poll says chance of R win: 0.189337 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.332135 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.244594 Poll: {PollId:87698 SampleSize:877 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Terry:0 Trump:45 West:0] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 798.070000 Mean R: 49.450549 Std of mean R: 1.769796 Poll says chance of R win: 0.378106 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.269796 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.404363 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3879 PollResults:map[Harris:50.60278541767087 Trump:49.39721458232912] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 3879.000000 Mean R: 49.397215 Std of mean R: 0.802747 Poll says chance of R win: 0.226355 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.302747 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.321788 State: Connecticut Votes: 7 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Georgia Votes: 16 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 Poll: {PollId:87684 SampleSize:1128 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1015.200000 Mean R: 51.111111 Std of mean R: 1.568870 Poll says chance of R win: 0.760597 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.068870 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.704388 Poll: {PollId:87704 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-07-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 576.000000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 2.083333 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.583333 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} Sample size: 628.900000 Mean R: 49.473684 Std of mean R: 1.993679 Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.493679 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.416420 Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 751.060000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 1.824453 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.324453 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2971 PollResults:map[Harris:49.73175460089662 Trump:50.268245399103385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 2971.000000 Mean R: 50.268245 Std of mean R: 0.917302 Poll says chance of R win: 0.615021 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.417302 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575057 State: Missouri Votes: 10 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: New Jersey Votes: 14 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: West Virginia Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: California Votes: 54 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Stein:2 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1789.760000 Mean R: 37.234043 Std of mean R: 1.142707 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309373 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1789 PollResults:map[Harris:62.765957446808514 Trump:37.23404255319149] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1789.000000 Mean R: 37.234043 Std of mean R: 1.142949 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309616 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 State: District of Columbia Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Louisiana Votes: 8 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Michigan Votes: 15 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 Poll: {PollId:87685 SampleSize:771 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 639.930000 Mean R: 50.602410 Std of mean R: 1.976388 Poll says chance of R win: 0.619742 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.476388 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596099 Poll: {PollId:87645 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 360.000000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 2.635231 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.135231 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Poll: {PollId:87713 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 768.000000 Mean R: 48.958333 Std of mean R: 1.803828 Poll says chance of R win: 0.281809 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.303828 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325582 Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 670.700000 Mean R: 44.210526 Std of mean R: 1.917674 Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.417674 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.008318 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2438 PollResults:map[Harris:51.76225995743511 Trump:48.23774004256487] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 2438.000000 Mean R: 48.237740 Std of mean R: 1.012006 Poll says chance of R win: 0.040811 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.512006 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121906 State: Tennessee Votes: 11 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Washington Votes: 12 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Arizona Votes: 11 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 Poll: {PollId:87716 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} Sample size: 950.000000 Mean R: 50.526316 Std of mean R: 1.622124 Poll says chance of R win: 0.627205 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.122124 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.597938 Poll: {PollId:87644 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 364.000000 Mean R: 52.747253 Std of mean R: 2.616753 Poll says chance of R win: 0.853111 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.116753 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810962 Poll: {PollId:87682 SampleSize:567 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 493.290000 Mean R: 49.425287 Std of mean R: 2.251076 Poll says chance of R win: 0.399243 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.751076 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417261 Poll: {PollId:87706 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:44.4 Trump:41.6] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 430.000000 Mean R: 48.372093 Std of mean R: 2.409936 Poll says chance of R win: 0.249680 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.909936 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.287934 Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} Sample size: 593.280000 Mean R: 51.041667 Std of mean R: 2.052324 Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.552324 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.658409 Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 771.840000 Mean R: 48.958333 Std of mean R: 1.799335 Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.299335 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325264 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3602 PollResults:map[Harris:49.90825586204791 Trump:50.091744137952084] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 3602.000000 Mean R: 50.091744 Std of mean R: 0.833101 Poll says chance of R win: 0.543844 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.333101 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.527434 State: Oregon Votes: 8 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Pennsylvania Votes: 19 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 Poll: {PollId:87668 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Oliver:2 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} Sample size: 480.000000 Mean R: 47.916667 Std of mean R: 2.280195 Poll says chance of R win: 0.180447 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.780195 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.226824 Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 540.000000 Mean R: 47.777778 Std of mean R: 2.149531 Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.649531 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.200812 Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 771.840000 Mean R: 52.083333 Std of mean R: 1.798163 Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.298163 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.817670 Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} Sample size: 595.650000 Mean R: 50.526316 Std of mean R: 2.048568 Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.548568 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.581805 Poll: {PollId:87715 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} Sample size: 900.000000 Mean R: 51.111111 Std of mean R: 1.666255 Poll says chance of R win: 0.747560 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.166255 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695996 Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 470.000000 Mean R: 50.638298 Std of mean R: 2.306140 Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.806140 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589969 Poll: {PollId:87690 SampleSize:743 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 668.700000 Mean R: 51.111111 Std of mean R: 1.933068 Poll says chance of R win: 0.717284 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.433068 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676046 Poll: {PollId:87647 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 372.000000 Mean R: 48.387097 Std of mean R: 2.591030 Poll says chance of R win: 0.266808 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.091030 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.300904 Poll: {PollId:87667 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:4 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} Sample size: 540.000000 Mean R: 50.000000 Std of mean R: 2.151657 Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.651657 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:5338 PollResults:map[Harris:49.78185489838315 Trump:50.218145101616834] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 5338.000000 Mean R: 50.218145 Std of mean R: 0.684347 Poll says chance of R win: 0.625047 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.184347 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.573068 State: Wyoming Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Idaho Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Maryland Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Massachusetts Votes: 11 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Ohio Votes: 17 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 Poll: {PollId:87650 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:9 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:52] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 564.000000 Mean R: 55.319149 Std of mean R: 2.093432 Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:564 PollResults:map[Harris:44.680851063829785 Trump:55.319148936170215] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 564.000000 Mean R: 55.319149 Std of mean R: 2.093432 Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867 State: Texas Votes: 40 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Virginia Votes: 13 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 State: Florida Votes: 30 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 Poll: {PollId:87683 SampleSize:976 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 858.880000 Mean R: 53.409091 Std of mean R: 1.702127 Poll says chance of R win: 0.977403 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.202127 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.939200 Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 704.340000 Mean R: 53.846154 Std of mean R: 1.878409 Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.378409 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.947073 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1563 PollResults:map[Harris:46.39398165325418 Trump:53.60601834674582] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1563.000000 Mean R: 53.606018 Std of mean R: 1.261415 Poll says chance of R win: 0.997873 Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.761415 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979682 State: Hawaii Votes: 4 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Kansas Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Nebraska Votes: 5 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 State: New York Votes: 28 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 Poll: {PollId:87678 SampleSize:1199 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:2 Trump:37 West:1] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1031.140000 Mean R: 43.023256 Std of mean R: 1.541848 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708515 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1031 PollResults:map[Harris:56.97674418604652 Trump:43.02325581395349] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1031.000000 Mean R: 43.023256 Std of mean R: 1.541953 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708620 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022 State: Utah Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Iowa Votes: 6 History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 State: Montana Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 Poll: {PollId:87700 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:4.6 Oliver:0.1 Stein:0.1 Trump:53.5 West:0.1] Date:2024-08-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 925.000000 Mean R: 57.837838 Std of mean R: 1.623666 Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 N republican wins: 6 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:925 PollResults:map[Harris:42.16216216216216 Trump:57.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 925.000000 Mean R: 57.837838 Std of mean R: 1.623666 Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 N republican wins: 6 => Reducing additional uncertainty Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994 State: Rhode Island Votes: 4 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: South Carolina Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 [ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) [ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) [ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) [ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%) [ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%) [ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%) [ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%) [ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%) [ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%) [ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%) [ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%) [ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%) [ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%) [ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%) [ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%) [ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%) [ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%) [ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%) [ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%) [ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%) [ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%) [ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%) [ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%) [ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%) [ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%) [ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%) [ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%) [ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%) [ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%) [ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%) [ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%) [ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%) [ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%) [ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%) [ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%) [ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%) [ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%) [ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%) [ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%) [ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%) [ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%) [ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%) [ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%) [ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%) [ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%) [ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%) [ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%) [ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%) [ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%) [ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%) [ 181, 182): 0.00% (0%) [ 182, 183): 0.00% (0%) [ 183, 184): 0.00% (0%) [ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%) [ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%) [ 186, 187): 0.00% (0%) [ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) [ 188, 189): 0.01% (0%) [ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%) [ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%) [ 191, 192): 0.00% (0%) [ 192, 193): 0.01% (0%) [ 193, 194): 0.02% (0%) [ 194, 195): 0.02% (0%) [ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%) [ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%) [ 197, 198): 0.01% (0%) [ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%) [ 199, 200): ██ 0.05% (0%) [ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%) [ 201, 202): █ 0.02% (0%) [ 202, 203): █ 0.03% (0%) [ 203, 204): █ 0.03% (0%) [ 204, 205): ██ 0.06% (0%) [ 205, 206): ███ 0.08% (0%) [ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%) [ 207, 208): █ 0.04% (1%) [ 208, 209): ██ 0.05% (1%) [ 209, 210): ███ 0.07% (1%) [ 210, 211): ███ 0.09% (1%) [ 211, 212): ███ 0.09% (1%) [ 212, 213): ████ 0.10% (1%) [ 213, 214): ████ 0.10% (1%) [ 214, 215): ████ 0.11% (1%) [ 215, 216): ██████ 0.16% (1%) [ 216, 217): ██████ 0.14% (1%) [ 217, 218): ██████ 0.14% (2%) [ 218, 219): █████████ 0.21% (2%) [ 219, 220): ████████ 0.19% (2%) [ 220, 221): ███████ 0.17% (2%) [ 221, 222): █████████ 0.21% (2%) [ 222, 223): ████████ 0.20% (3%) [ 223, 224): ███████████ 0.26% (3%) [ 224, 225): █████████████ 0.31% (3%) [ 225, 226): ███████████ 0.27% (3%) [ 226, 227): ███████████ 0.25% (4%) [ 227, 228): ██████████ 0.25% (4%) [ 228, 229): ██████████████████ 0.42% (4%) [ 229, 230): █████████████████████████ 0.58% (5%) [ 230, 231): ███████████████████ 0.44% (5%) [ 231, 232): ███████████████ 0.35% (6%) [ 232, 233): ███████████████ 0.34% (6%) [ 233, 234): █████████████████ 0.40% (6%) [ 234, 235): ███████████████████████████████ 0.72% (7%) [ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (8%) [ 236, 237): ███████████████████████ 0.52% (9%) [ 237, 238): ██████████████████ 0.43% (9%) [ 238, 239): ████████████████████████ 0.56% (10%) [ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (10%) [ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.01% (11%) [ 241, 242): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (12%) [ 242, 243): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (13%) [ 243, 244): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (14%) [ 244, 245): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (15%) [ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (16%) [ 246, 247): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (17%) [ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (18%) [ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (19%) [ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (20%) [ 250, 251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (22%) [ 251, 252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.74% (23%) [ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (25%) [ 253, 254): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (26%) [ 254, 255): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (27%) [ 255, 256): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (29%) [ 256, 257): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.80% (31%) [ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (32%) [ 258, 259): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (34%) [ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (35%) [ 260, 261): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (37%) [ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.99% (39%) [ 262, 263): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.95% (41%) [ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (42%) [ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.03% (44%) [ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.99% (46%) [ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.71% (48%) [ 267, 268): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (50%) [ 268, 269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.77% (51%) [ 269, 270): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.00% (53%) [ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.04% (55%) [ 271, 272): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.90% (57%) [ 272, 273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.76% (59%) [ 273, 274): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (60%) [ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.93% (62%) [ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.27% (65%) [ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (66%) [ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (68%) [ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (69%) [ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (71%) [ 280, 281): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.96% (73%) [ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 2.04% (75%) [ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (76%) [ 283, 284): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (77%) [ 284, 285): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (79%) [ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (80%) [ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (82%) [ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (83%) [ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (84%) [ 289, 290): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (85%) [ 290, 291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (86%) [ 291, 292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (88%) [ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (89%) [ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (89%) [ 294, 295): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (90%) [ 295, 296): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (91%) [ 296, 297): █████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (92%) [ 297, 298): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (93%) [ 298, 299): ██████████████████████████████ 0.69% (94%) [ 299, 300): █████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%) [ 300, 301): ████████████████████████████ 0.64% (95%) [ 301, 302): █████████████████████████ 0.58% (95%) [ 302, 303): █████████████████ 0.40% (96%) [ 303, 304): ███████████████████ 0.45% (96%) [ 304, 305): ████████████████████████ 0.56% (97%) [ 305, 306): ███████████████ 0.34% (97%) [ 306, 307): ████████████ 0.29% (97%) [ 307, 308): ███████████ 0.27% (98%) [ 308, 309): ███████████ 0.26% (98%) [ 309, 310): █████████████ 0.30% (98%) [ 310, 311): █████████████ 0.31% (99%) [ 311, 312): ████████ 0.18% (99%) [ 312, 313): █████ 0.13% (99%) [ 313, 314): ███████ 0.17% (99%) [ 314, 315): ████████ 0.19% (99%) [ 315, 316): █████ 0.13% (99%) [ 316, 317): ███ 0.07% (99%) [ 317, 318): ██ 0.05% (99%) [ 318, 319): ███ 0.07% (100%) [ 319, 320): ████ 0.11% (100%) [ 320, 321): ████ 0.09% (100%) [ 321, 322): █ 0.04% (100%) [ 322, 323): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 323, 324): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 324, 325): █ 0.04% (100%) [ 325, 326): █ 0.04% (100%) [ 326, 327): 0.02% (100%) [ 327, 328): 0.00% (100%) [ 328, 329): 0.01% (100%) [ 329, 330): 0.02% (100%) [ 330, 331): 0.01% (100%) [ 331, 332): 0.00% (100%) [ 332, 333): 0.00% (100%) [ 333, 334): 0.00% (100%) [ 334, 335): 0.01% (100%) [ 335, 336): 0.01% (100%) [ 336, 337): 0.00% (100%) [ 337, 338): 0.00% (100%) [ 338, 339): 0.00% (100%) [ 339, 340): 0.00% (100%) [ 340, 341): 0.00% (100%) [ 341, 342): 0.00% (100%) [ 342, 343): 0.00% (100%) [ 343, 344): 0.00% (100%) [ 344, 345): 0.00% (100%) [ 345, 346): 0.00% (100%) [ 346, 347): 0.00% (100%) [ 347, 348): 0.00% (100%) [ 348, 349): 0.00% (100%) [ 349, 350): 0.00% (100%) [ 350, 351): 0.00% (100%) [ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%) [ 352, 353): 0.00% (100%) [ 353, 354): 0.00% (100%) [ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%) [ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%) [ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%) [ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%) [ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%) [ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%) [ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%) [ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%) [ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%) [ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%) [ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%) [ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%) [ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%) [ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%) [ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%) [ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%) [ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%) [ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%) [ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%) [ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%) [ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%) [ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%) [ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%) [ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%) [ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%) [ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%) [ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%) [ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%) [ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%) [ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%) [ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%) [ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%) [ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%) [ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%) [ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%) [ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%) [ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%) [ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%) [ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%) [ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%) [ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%) [ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%) [ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%) [ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%) [ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%) [ 399, 400): 0.00% 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