go run main.go


State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 456.000000
		Mean R: 57.894737
		Std of mean R: 2.312093
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
	Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 659.650000
		Mean R: 51.898734
		Std of mean R: 1.945359
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
	Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 534.890000
		Mean R: 53.932584
		Std of mean R: 2.155214
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
	Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1212.120000
		Mean R: 52.747253
		Std of mean R: 1.433972
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
	Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 410.640000
		Mean R: 51.724138
		Std of mean R: 2.465932
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3273.000000
		Mean R: 53.358690
		Std of mean R: 0.871997
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 407.000000
		Mean R: 61.425061
		Std of mean R: 2.412838
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 407.000000
		Mean R: 61.425061
		Std of mean R: 2.412838
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 253.500000
		Mean R: 46.666667
		Std of mean R: 3.133385
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
	Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 658.350000
		Mean R: 51.578947
		Std of mean R: 1.947713
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
	Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 429.440000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.412786
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 452.700000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.349983
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1793.000000
		Mean R: 50.108418
		Std of mean R: 1.180807
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 390.100000
		Mean R: 50.602410
		Std of mean R: 2.531340
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
	Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 546.000000
		Mean R: 51.648352
		Std of mean R: 2.138639
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
	Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 962.400000
		Mean R: 53.750000
		Std of mean R: 1.607190
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1898.000000
		Mean R: 52.498815
		Std of mean R: 1.146249
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1011.930000
		Mean R: 53.932584
		Std of mean R: 1.566922
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
	Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 705.760000
		Mean R: 54.545455
		Std of mean R: 1.874301
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1717.000000
		Mean R: 54.184399
		Std of mean R: 1.202427
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 423.690000
		Mean R: 48.275862
		Std of mean R: 2.427658
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
	Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 678.900000
		Mean R: 51.612903
		Std of mean R: 1.917967
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
	Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 856.800000
		Mean R: 49.411765
		Std of mean R: 1.708049
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1959.000000
		Mean R: 49.928804
		Std of mean R: 1.129672
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 578.100000
		Mean R: 41.489362
		Std of mean R: 2.049200
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
	Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 306.280000
		Mean R: 44.736842
		Std of mean R: 2.841131
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 884.000000
		Mean R: 42.614035
		Std of mean R: 1.663233
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 680.800000
		Mean R: 47.708578
		Std of mean R: 1.914272
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 680.000000
		Mean R: 47.708578
		Std of mean R: 1.915398
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 952.650000
		Mean R: 52.873563
		Std of mean R: 1.617279
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
	Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 499.989000
		Mean R: 52.131547
		Std of mean R: 2.234060
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794
	Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 792.370000
		Mean R: 54.430380
		Std of mean R: 1.769271
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735
	Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 469.030000
		Mean R: 50.561798
		Std of mean R: 2.308566
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480
	Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 411.600000
		Mean R: 52.380952
		Std of mean R: 2.461724
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
	Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1002.120000
		Mean R: 52.380952
		Std of mean R: 1.577674
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 4127.000000
		Mean R: 52.651136
		Std of mean R: 0.777215
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 525.000000
		Mean R: 36.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.094892
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
	Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 526.000000
		Mean R: 32.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.033933
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1051.000000
		Mean R: 33.998097
		Std of mean R: 1.461182
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 935.250000
		Mean R: 54.022989
		Std of mean R: 1.629656
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
	Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 422.820000
		Mean R: 55.172414
		Std of mean R: 2.418555
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836
	Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 861.000000
		Mean R: 56.097561
		Std of mean R: 1.691277
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
	Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1003.850000
		Mean R: 57.647059
		Std of mean R: 1.559538
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3222.000000
		Mean R: 55.856801
		Std of mean R: 0.874797
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211

State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 648.940000
		Mean R: 50.656455
		Std of mean R: 1.962593
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
	Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 628.140000
		Mean R: 49.425287
		Std of mean R: 1.994863
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
	Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 414.520000
		Mean R: 48.837209
		Std of mean R: 2.455160
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524
	Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 634.270000
		Mean R: 50.549451
		Std of mean R: 1.985211
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
	Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 557.520000
		Mean R: 51.086957
		Std of mean R: 2.117079
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2883.000000
		Mean R: 50.186413
		Std of mean R: 0.931204
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 918.810000
		Mean R: 49.397590
		Std of mean R: 1.649399
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
	Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 554.580000
		Mean R: 48.717949
		Std of mean R: 2.122487
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1473.000000
		Mean R: 49.141775
		Std of mean R: 1.302581
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 908.650000
		Mean R: 52.941176
		Std of mean R: 1.655842
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
	Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 407.160000
		Mean R: 50.574713
		Std of mean R: 2.477757
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
	Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 357.780000
		Mean R: 55.056180
		Std of mean R: 2.629844
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
	Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 546.910000
		Mean R: 51.648352
		Std of mean R: 2.136859
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
	Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 426.000000
		Mean R: 52.112676
		Std of mean R: 2.420344
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
	Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 431.460000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.407131
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 449.964000
		Mean R: 53.596288
		Std of mean R: 2.351012
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3527.000000
		Mean R: 52.305945
		Std of mean R: 0.841017
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082

State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1140.000000
		Mean R: 48.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.479687
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
	Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 630.122000
		Mean R: 50.068399
		Std of mean R: 1.991853
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554
	Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 468.000000
		Mean R: 46.153846
		Std of mean R: 2.304403
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2238.000000
		Mean R: 48.196300
		Std of mean R: 1.056227
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 538.000000
		Mean R: 40.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.112100
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 538.000000
		Mean R: 40.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.112100
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1000.000000
		Mean R: 44.800000
		Std of mean R: 1.572565
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
	Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1012.350000
		Mean R: 44.705882
		Std of mean R: 1.562631
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2012.000000
		Mean R: 44.752652
		Std of mean R: 1.108539
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 385.120000
		Mean R: 66.265060
		Std of mean R: 2.409263
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 385.000000
		Mean R: 66.265060
		Std of mean R: 2.409639
		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

[ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
[ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
[ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
[ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
[ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
[ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
[ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
[ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
[ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
[ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
[ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
[ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
[ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
[ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
[ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
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[ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
[ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
[ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
[ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
[ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
[ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
[ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
[ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
[ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
[ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
[ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
[ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
[ 160,  161):  0.00% (0%)
[ 161,  162):  0.00% (0%)
[ 162,  163):  0.00% (0%)
[ 163,  164):  0.00% (0%)
[ 164,  165):  0.00% (0%)
[ 165,  166):  0.00% (0%)
[ 166,  167):  0.00% (0%)
[ 167,  168):  0.00% (0%)
[ 168,  169):  0.00% (0%)
[ 169,  170):  0.00% (0%)
[ 170,  171):  0.00% (0%)
[ 171,  172):  0.00% (0%)
[ 172,  173):  0.00% (0%)
[ 173,  174):  0.00% (0%)
[ 174,  175):  0.00% (0%)
[ 175,  176):  0.00% (0%)
[ 176,  177):  0.00% (0%)
[ 177,  178):  0.00% (0%)
[ 178,  179):  0.00% (0%)
[ 179,  180):  0.00% (0%)
[ 180,  181):  0.00% (0%)
[ 181,  182):  0.00% (0%)
[ 182,  183):  0.01% (0%)
[ 183,  184):  0.01% (0%)
[ 184,  185):  0.00% (0%)
[ 185,  186):  0.00% (0%)
[ 186,  187):  0.01% (0%)
[ 187,  188):  0.01% (0%)
[ 188,  189):  0.01% (0%)
[ 189,  190):  0.01% (0%)
[ 190,  191):  0.00% (0%)
[ 191,  192):  0.01% (0%)
[ 192,  193):  0.02% (0%)
[ 193,  194): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 194,  195): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 195,  196):  0.01% (0%)
[ 196,  197):  0.01% (0%)
[ 197,  198): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 198,  199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 199,  200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 200,  201): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 201,  202): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 202,  203): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 203,  204): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 204,  205): ███ 0.06% (0%)
[ 205,  206): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 206,  207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 207,  208): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 208,  209): ████ 0.07% (1%)
[ 209,  210): █████ 0.09% (1%)
[ 210,  211): ████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 211,  212): ████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 212,  213): █████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 213,  214): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
[ 214,  215): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
[ 215,  216): ████████ 0.15% (1%)
[ 216,  217): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 217,  218): ████████ 0.15% (2%)
[ 218,  219): █████████ 0.17% (2%)
[ 219,  220): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
[ 220,  221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 221,  222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%)
[ 222,  223): ████████████ 0.21% (3%)
[ 223,  224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
[ 224,  225): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
[ 225,  226): ███████████████ 0.27% (3%)
[ 226,  227): ███████████████ 0.27% (4%)
[ 227,  228): ████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
[ 228,  229): █████████████████████ 0.37% (4%)
[ 229,  230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%)
[ 230,  231): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
[ 231,  232): ████████████████████ 0.35% (5%)
[ 232,  233): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (6%)
[ 233,  234): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (6%)
[ 234,  235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%)
[ 235,  236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%)
[ 236,  237): ████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
[ 237,  238): ███████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%)
[ 238,  239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
[ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%)
[ 240,  241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (10%)
[ 241,  242): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (11%)
[ 242,  243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (12%)
[ 243,  244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%)
[ 244,  245): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (13%)
[ 245,  246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%)
[ 246,  247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (15%)
[ 247,  248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%)
[ 248,  249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (17%)
[ 249,  250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (18%)
[ 250,  251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (19%)
[ 251,  252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%)
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% republicans: 0.557435