NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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2
README.md
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@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ What's happening here is that:
- For the polls that do exist, Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina - For the polls that do exist, Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina
- Trump is also polling decently in Minessota; Biden is polling well in Colorado - Trump is also polling decently in Minessota; Biden is polling well in Colorado
- In part, this is because Biden is just [unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), or at least more than [Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) - In part, this is because Biden is just [unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), or at least more than [Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)
- In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein (Green party). - In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Kayne West and Jill Stein (Green party).
- In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system. - In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system.
- In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump. - In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump.

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data/polls/president_polls.csv
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data/polls/president_polls.csv.1
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data/polls/president_polls_state.csv
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6
main.go
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@ -250,9 +250,9 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false) p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false) // p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
weight_polls := 0.75 // weight_polls := 0.75
p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win // p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
// p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
} }
if r.Float64() < p_republican_win { if r.Float64() < p_republican_win {

3
makefile
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@ -3,8 +3,7 @@ run:
polls: polls:
mkdir -p data/polls mkdir -p data/polls
rm data/polls/president_polls.csv # cd data/polls && wget https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls.csv
cd data/polls && wget https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls.csv
cat data/polls/president_polls.csv | awk -F, 'NR==1 {print; next} $$13 != ""' > data/polls/president_polls_state.csv cat data/polls/president_polls.csv | awk -F, 'NR==1 {print; next} $$13 != ""' > data/polls/president_polls_state.csv
# cd data/polls && awk -F, 'NR == 1 || $13 != ""' president_polls.csv > president_polls_state.csv # cd data/polls && awk -F, 'NR == 1 || $13 != ""' president_polls.csv > president_polls_state.csv