NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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tweak weight polls

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NunoSempere 2024-05-05 23:04:30 +02:00
parent 3c4d6ba372
commit dec133e6e0
2 changed files with 4 additions and 4 deletions
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2
README.md
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@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ What's happening here is that:
- For the polls that do exist, Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina - For the polls that do exist, Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina
- Trump is also polling decently in Minessota; Biden is polling well in Colorado - Trump is also polling decently in Minessota; Biden is polling well in Colorado
- In part, this is because Biden is just [unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), or at least more than [Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) - In part, this is because Biden is just [unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), or at least more than [Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)
- In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Kayne West and Jill Stein (Green party). - In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein (Green party).
- In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system. - In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system.
- In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump. - In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump.

6
main.go
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@ -250,9 +250,9 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false) p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false) // p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
// weight_polls := 0.75 weight_polls := 0.75
// p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls // p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
} }
if r.Float64() < p_republican_win { if r.Float64() < p_republican_win {