From c27c76ac6004d29a0a6d904592d5a3c03a2912f6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 20:09:52 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] add uncertainty due to being far away, change README --- README.md | 41 +- data/poll-errors/note.txt | 3 + main.go | 55 +- output.txt | 1491 +++++++++++++++++-------------------- 4 files changed, 754 insertions(+), 836 deletions(-) create mode 100644 data/poll-errors/note.txt diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 22ca3cd..0f4fe59 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ ## About -This is a simple model of the US electoral college. It aims to be conceptually simple and replicatable. Currently, it incorporates data from the electoral history in each state, since the 2000 election, as well as states-specific polls, if they exist. +This is a simple model of the US electoral college. It aims to be conceptually simple and replicatable. Currently, it incorporates data from state specific polls, and otherwise defaults to the state's electoral history baserate. Other projects, like [538](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight), [Nate Silver's substack](https://www.natesilver.net/) or [Gelman's model](https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model) are to this project as a sportscar is to a walking stick. They are much more sophisticated, and probably more accurate. However, they are also more difficult to understand and to maintain. @@ -59,7 +59,9 @@ Essentially, Obama won by much more than Bush, Trump or Biden. But our naïve mo So the story here is that our model is not very sophisticated. But another might be that Obama was much more popular than Biden, and if Democrats can tap into that again, they will do better. -### The polls story +Still, *for states in which there is no polling*, the electoral history seems like a decent enough proxy: these are the states which are solid Republican or solid Democrat. + +### The unadjusted polls story If we only look at polls (and use baserates when there are no polls—which happens for states like Alabama, which lean strongly towards one party already), this time the Republicans win by a mile: with 95% probability. @@ -73,11 +75,21 @@ What's happening here is that: - In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system. - In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump. +However, this 95% really doesn't feel right. It is only accounting, and very naively, for the sample size of the poll. It not only assumes that the poll is a representative sample, it also assumes that opinions will not drift between now and election time. This later assumption is fatal. + +### The adjusted polls story + +If we look at how [Gallup presidential election polls](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx) did between 1936 and 2008, we get a sense that polls in mid April just aren't very informative as to the eventual result. Doing the tally, for republicans, polls have a 15% relative standard error: huge when races in battleground states tend to be close to 50/50 (49/51, 48/52, 47/53, etc.) + +Moreover, these are national polls: state polls will have smaller samples and thus more uncertainty. And current pollsters are nor as good as gallup. And... there might be other sources of uncertainty that I'm missing. + +But incorporating reasonable estimates of uncertainty, the probability of a republican win the model gives is 51%. This is now in line with [prediction markets](https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html). + ## Notes on other models **FiveThirtyEight** [2020](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/), [2016](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/) -Notes on 2020: +Notes on 2020 model: - Adjusted for COVID pandemic - Manually increased uncertainty @@ -144,20 +156,13 @@ Notes on 2020: ## Roadmap -It's not clear to me what I will do with this. As a result of writting down the model, I've realized that 80/20-ing a 538 would involve more effort than what I was expecting. I may just add the national drift + election day error + idiosyncratic error terms and then just call it a day. +It's not clear to me what I will do with this. After starting to program this, I realized that creating a model that was in the same ballpark as The Economist's or 538's would just be too much effort. After adding national drift + election day error + idiosyncratic error terms, this isn't quite at the 80/20 stage, but it feels like it's at a good point, and I may just leave it here. ### To do General: - [ ] Share with Samotsvety -- [ ] Implement possible next steps: - - Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election - - Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share -- [ ] Better prior by incorporating more past elections -- Think about how to: - - [ ] Inject error - - [ ] Inject correlated error - [ ] Think about whether I want to monetize this - Maybe with Vox? - Otherwise: add MIT license & publish @@ -166,15 +171,17 @@ General: Steps to make this more accurate: +- [ ] Better prior by incorporating more past elections +- Think about how to: + - [x] Inject error + - [ ] Inject correlated error - [ ] Think about correlation between states. - How? - [ ] Consider conditional probabilities - See how other models account for the correlation - [ ] Add more years - [ ] Polling company errors -- [ ] Make polling errors wider? - [ ] Economic fundamentals? -- [ ] Print more data for polls ### Done @@ -197,6 +204,12 @@ Consider polls: - [x] Exclude polls older than one month? - [x] Inspect polling stderrs +Uncertainty + +- [x] Implement key possible next steps: + - [x] Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election + - [x] Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share + General - [x] Work on README @@ -204,6 +217,8 @@ General - [x] Histogram distributions of electoral college votes - [x] Think about next steps - [x] Get clarity on next steps +- [x] Make polling errors wider? +- [x] Print more data for polls ### Discarded diff --git a/data/poll-errors/note.txt b/data/poll-errors/note.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..449fddc --- /dev/null +++ b/data/poll-errors/note.txt @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +Properly, the 0.15 relative std isn't over the *normalized* rep/democrat share of vote (i.e., excluding independents). + +However, I think that's a relatively unimportant effect, so I'm ignoring it for now. diff --git a/main.go b/main.go index 5f3b12d..85b85b0 100644 --- a/main.go +++ b/main.go @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f return getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, candidate_p, std) } -func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 { +func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool, std_additional_uncertainty float64) float64 { biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] @@ -240,7 +240,8 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 { joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize) std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size) - p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error_poll_mean) + std_error := std_error_poll_mean + std_additional_uncertainty + p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error) if pretty_print { fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_biden_sample_size) @@ -259,18 +260,18 @@ func printStates(states []State) { fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes) fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory) - p_baserate_republican := 0.0 + p_baserate_republican_win := 0.0 for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory { if party == "R" { - p_baserate_republican++ + p_baserate_republican_win++ } } - fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican) + fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican_win) // Individual poll for _, poll := range state.Polls { fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll) - _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll, true) + _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll, true, 0.0) } // Aggregate poll @@ -292,7 +293,7 @@ func printStates(states []State) { aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll) - _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true) + _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true, 0.0) } } @@ -335,21 +336,19 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { default: { /* Consider the base rate for the state */ - p_baserate_republican := 0.0 + p_baserate_republican_win := 0.0 for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory { if party == "R" { - p_baserate_republican++ + p_baserate_republican_win++ } } - p_baserate_republican = p_baserate_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)) - p_republican := p_baserate_republican // if no polls + p_baserate_republican_win = p_baserate_republican_win / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)) + p_republican_win := p_baserate_republican_win // if no polls /* Consider polls */ num_biden_votes := 0.0 num_trump_votes := 0.0 for _, poll := range state.Polls { - // p_republican_win_poll = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll) - biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] if !biden_exists || !trump_exists { @@ -364,12 +363,20 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)} aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size - p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false) - weight_polls := 0.5 - p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican + + national_drift := 0.15 + state_more_uncertain_than_national := 0.03 + not_as_good_as_gallup := 0.03 + idiosyncratic := 0.03 + std_additional_uncertainty := national_drift + state_more_uncertain_than_national + not_as_good_as_gallup + idiosyncratic + p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false, std_additional_uncertainty) + + // weight_polls := 0.75 + // p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win + p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls } - if r.Float64() < p_republican { + if r.Float64() < p_republican_win { return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes} } else { return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0} @@ -418,7 +425,12 @@ func printElectoralCollegeHistogram(samples []int) { p := float64(count) / float64(len(samples)) * 100 cp += p - fmt.Printf("[ %2d, %4d): %s %.2f%% (%.0f%%)\n", i, i+1, barString(bar_length), p, cp) + if i > 130 && i < 400 { + fmt.Printf("[ %2d, %4d): %s %.2f%% (%.0f%%)\n", i, i+1, barString(bar_length), p, cp) + } else if p >= 0.01 { + fmt.Printf(">0.01 probability outside of domain, you might want to change histogram parameters\n") + + } } } @@ -430,7 +442,7 @@ func main() { return } - n_sims := 100_000 + n_sims := 1_000_000 printStates(states) fmt.Printf("\n\n") @@ -444,8 +456,9 @@ func main() { p_republicans++ } } - p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims) - fmt.Printf("\n%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans) printElectoralCollegeHistogram(results) + p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims) + fmt.Printf("\n%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans) + } diff --git a/output.txt b/output.txt index 3b6c83a..2b16c57 100644 --- a/output.txt +++ b/output.txt @@ -1,180 +1,45 @@ go run main.go -State: Texas - Votes: 40 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449 - Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Alaska - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: Indiana - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 - -State: Missouri - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: Nebraska - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000 - -State: Nevada - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 - -State: New Mexico - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: South Dakota - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: Massachusetts - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Alabama - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: California - Votes: 54 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Colorado - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499 - -State: Connecticut - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Kentucky - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: Maine - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Maryland - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Ohio - Votes: 17 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000 - -State: Vermont - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Washington - Votes: 12 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 - -State: Wyoming - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - -State: District of Columbia - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Minnesota - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544 - State: New Hampshire Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Rhode Island - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Arizona - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580 - Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248 - Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601 - Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893 - -State: Arkansas - Votes: 6 +State: Alaska + Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 -State: Delaware - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Georgia + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 646.000000 + Mean R: 51.764706 + Std of mean R: 1.965998 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304 + Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.000000 + Mean R: 50.574713 + Std of mean R: 2.188296 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1168.000000 + Mean R: 51.232877 + Std of mean R: 1.462570 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373 + +State: Idaho + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Iowa + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000 State: Kansas Votes: 6 @@ -186,37 +51,63 @@ State: Michigan History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 492.800000 + Mean R: 51.250000 + Std of mean R: 2.251640 Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604 - Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461 - Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951 Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 811.780000 + Mean R: 54.054054 + Std of mean R: 1.749116 Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769 + Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 852.000000 + Mean R: 52.347418 + Std of mean R: 1.711083 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951 Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 558.000000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 2.115567 Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089 Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 587.052000 + Mean R: 51.932367 + Std of mean R: 2.062088 Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645 + Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 539.220000 + Mean R: 51.162791 + Std of mean R: 2.152631 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176 + Sample size: 3840.000000 + Mean R: 52.230859 + Std of mean R: 0.806068 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176 State: Mississippi Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 -State: Utah - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 +State: Vermont + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Idaho +State: District of Columbia + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Maine Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Louisiana - Votes: 8 +State: North Dakota + Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 @@ -225,274 +116,406 @@ State: West Virginia History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 -State: Wisconsin +State: Maryland Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647 - Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745 - -State: Oregon - Votes: 8 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Florida - Votes: 30 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888 - Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Hawaii - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Iowa - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000 - -State: Montana - Votes: 4 +State: Missouri + Votes: 10 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 -State: New York - Votes: 28 +State: Washington + Votes: 12 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: North Carolina - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934 - Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508 - Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509 - Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673 - Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.2451900812529] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348 - -State: Oklahoma - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 510.000000 + Mean R: 43.529412 + Std of mean R: 2.195419 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 510.000000 + Mean R: 43.529412 + Std of mean R: 2.195419 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 State: Pennsylvania Votes: 19 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 658.750000 + Mean R: 51.764706 + Std of mean R: 1.946879 Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645 - Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019 Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 353.420000 + Mean R: 48.780488 + Std of mean R: 2.658859 Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239 Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 680.000000 + Mean R: 48.235294 + Std of mean R: 1.916218 Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543 + Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 882.960000 + Mean R: 51.282051 + Std of mean R: 1.682119 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019 Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.000000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.138639 Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.500940364547446] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3121.000000 + Mean R: 50.500940 + Std of mean R: 0.894955 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171 -State: Tennessee - Votes: 11 +State: Alabama + Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 -State: Virginia - Votes: 13 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 - -State: Georgia - Votes: 16 +State: Arizona + Votes: 11 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304 - Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373 + Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 377.250000 + Mean R: 52.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.572217 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580 + Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 438.600000 + Mean R: 51.764706 + Std of mean R: 2.385970 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234 + Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 420.000000 + Mean R: 52.857143 + Std of mean R: 2.435764 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601 + Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 534.000000 + Mean R: 52.808989 + Std of mean R: 2.160294 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1769.000000 + Mean R: 52.389186 + Std of mean R: 1.187435 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893 -State: Illinois - Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: New Jersey - Votes: 14 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 - -State: North Dakota - Votes: 3 +State: Arkansas + Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 +State: Florida + Votes: 30 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 838.000000 + Mean R: 58.711217 + Std of mean R: 1.700805 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 743.750000 + Mean R: 54.117647 + Std of mean R: 1.827169 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1581.000000 + Mean R: 56.551288 + Std of mean R: 1.246648 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Louisiana + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Nebraska + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000 + +State: Oklahoma + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Rhode Island + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + State: South Carolina Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 +State: New Mexico + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Colorado + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 556.160000 + Mean R: 44.318182 + Std of mean R: 2.106434 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 556.000000 + Mean R: 44.318182 + Std of mean R: 2.106737 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499 + +State: Connecticut + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Delaware + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Indiana + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 + +State: Massachusetts + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 741.480000 + Mean R: 37.837838 + Std of mean R: 1.781052 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 741.000000 + Mean R: 37.837838 + Std of mean R: 1.781628 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Minnesota + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.880000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.186007 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.000000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.187849 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544 + +State: Nevada + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 52.173913 + Std of mean R: 2.126129 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 52.173913 + Std of mean R: 2.126129 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 + +State: North Carolina + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 883.920000 + Mean R: 51.724138 + Std of mean R: 1.680758 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509 + Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 526.440000 + Mean R: 52.439024 + Std of mean R: 2.176598 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764 + Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 53.260870 + Std of mean R: 2.123611 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673 + Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1106.790000 + Mean R: 51.898734 + Std of mean R: 1.501841 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934 + Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 493.800000 + Mean R: 52.612394 + Std of mean R: 2.246989 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.2451900812529] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3562.000000 + Mean R: 52.245190 + Std of mean R: 0.836922 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348 + +State: Texas + Votes: 40 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 938.280000 + Mean R: 57.142857 + Std of mean R: 1.615572 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995 + Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 929.000000 + Mean R: 54.574812 + Std of mean R: 1.633566 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1867.000000 + Mean R: 55.865216 + Std of mean R: 1.149183 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Utah + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Wyoming + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: California + Votes: 54 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 921.400000 + Mean R: 36.470588 + Std of mean R: 1.585750 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 921.000000 + Mean R: 36.470588 + Std of mean R: 1.586094 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Hawaii + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Kentucky + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Oregon + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: South Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: Virginia + Votes: 13 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000 + +State: Wisconsin + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.128141 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 830.000000 + Mean R: 52.289157 + Std of mean R: 1.733705 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1382.000000 + Mean R: 51.374819 + Std of mean R: 1.344472 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745 + +State: New York + Votes: 28 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Illinois + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Montana + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + +State: New Jersey + Votes: 14 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 768.000000 + Mean R: 46.614583 + Std of mean R: 1.800079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 768.000000 + Mean R: 46.614583 + Std of mean R: 1.800079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 + +State: Ohio + Votes: 17 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000 + +State: Tennessee + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 711.020000 + Mean R: 65.753425 + Std of mean R: 1.779618 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 711.000000 + Mean R: 65.753425 + Std of mean R: 1.779643 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 -% republicans: 0.630840 -[ 0, 1): 0.00% (0%) -[ 1, 2): 0.00% (0%) -[ 2, 3): 0.00% (0%) -[ 3, 4): 0.00% (0%) -[ 4, 5): 0.00% (0%) -[ 5, 6): 0.00% (0%) -[ 6, 7): 0.00% (0%) -[ 7, 8): 0.00% (0%) -[ 8, 9): 0.00% (0%) -[ 9, 10): 0.00% (0%) -[ 10, 11): 0.00% (0%) -[ 11, 12): 0.00% (0%) -[ 12, 13): 0.00% (0%) -[ 13, 14): 0.00% (0%) -[ 14, 15): 0.00% (0%) -[ 15, 16): 0.00% (0%) -[ 16, 17): 0.00% (0%) -[ 17, 18): 0.00% (0%) -[ 18, 19): 0.00% (0%) -[ 19, 20): 0.00% (0%) -[ 20, 21): 0.00% (0%) -[ 21, 22): 0.00% (0%) -[ 22, 23): 0.00% (0%) -[ 23, 24): 0.00% (0%) -[ 24, 25): 0.00% (0%) -[ 25, 26): 0.00% (0%) -[ 26, 27): 0.00% (0%) -[ 27, 28): 0.00% (0%) -[ 28, 29): 0.00% (0%) -[ 29, 30): 0.00% (0%) -[ 30, 31): 0.00% (0%) -[ 31, 32): 0.00% (0%) -[ 32, 33): 0.00% (0%) -[ 33, 34): 0.00% (0%) -[ 34, 35): 0.00% (0%) -[ 35, 36): 0.00% (0%) -[ 36, 37): 0.00% (0%) -[ 37, 38): 0.00% (0%) -[ 38, 39): 0.00% (0%) -[ 39, 40): 0.00% (0%) -[ 40, 41): 0.00% (0%) -[ 41, 42): 0.00% (0%) -[ 42, 43): 0.00% (0%) -[ 43, 44): 0.00% (0%) -[ 44, 45): 0.00% (0%) -[ 45, 46): 0.00% (0%) -[ 46, 47): 0.00% (0%) -[ 47, 48): 0.00% (0%) -[ 48, 49): 0.00% (0%) -[ 49, 50): 0.00% (0%) -[ 50, 51): 0.00% (0%) -[ 51, 52): 0.00% (0%) -[ 52, 53): 0.00% (0%) -[ 53, 54): 0.00% (0%) -[ 54, 55): 0.00% (0%) -[ 55, 56): 0.00% (0%) -[ 56, 57): 0.00% (0%) -[ 57, 58): 0.00% (0%) -[ 58, 59): 0.00% (0%) -[ 59, 60): 0.00% (0%) -[ 60, 61): 0.00% (0%) -[ 61, 62): 0.00% (0%) -[ 62, 63): 0.00% (0%) -[ 63, 64): 0.00% (0%) -[ 64, 65): 0.00% (0%) -[ 65, 66): 0.00% (0%) -[ 66, 67): 0.00% (0%) -[ 67, 68): 0.00% (0%) -[ 68, 69): 0.00% (0%) -[ 69, 70): 0.00% (0%) -[ 70, 71): 0.00% (0%) -[ 71, 72): 0.00% (0%) -[ 72, 73): 0.00% (0%) -[ 73, 74): 0.00% (0%) -[ 74, 75): 0.00% (0%) -[ 75, 76): 0.00% (0%) -[ 76, 77): 0.00% (0%) -[ 77, 78): 0.00% (0%) -[ 78, 79): 0.00% (0%) -[ 79, 80): 0.00% (0%) -[ 80, 81): 0.00% (0%) -[ 81, 82): 0.00% (0%) -[ 82, 83): 0.00% (0%) -[ 83, 84): 0.00% (0%) -[ 84, 85): 0.00% (0%) -[ 85, 86): 0.00% (0%) -[ 86, 87): 0.00% (0%) -[ 87, 88): 0.00% (0%) -[ 88, 89): 0.00% (0%) -[ 89, 90): 0.00% (0%) -[ 90, 91): 0.00% (0%) -[ 91, 92): 0.00% (0%) -[ 92, 93): 0.00% (0%) -[ 93, 94): 0.00% (0%) -[ 94, 95): 0.00% (0%) -[ 95, 96): 0.00% (0%) -[ 96, 97): 0.00% (0%) -[ 97, 98): 0.00% (0%) -[ 98, 99): 0.00% (0%) -[ 99, 100): 0.00% (0%) -[ 100, 101): 0.00% (0%) -[ 101, 102): 0.00% (0%) -[ 102, 103): 0.00% (0%) -[ 103, 104): 0.00% (0%) -[ 104, 105): 0.00% (0%) -[ 105, 106): 0.00% (0%) -[ 106, 107): 0.00% (0%) -[ 107, 108): 0.00% (0%) -[ 108, 109): 0.00% (0%) -[ 109, 110): 0.00% (0%) -[ 110, 111): 0.00% (0%) -[ 111, 112): 0.00% (0%) -[ 112, 113): 0.00% (0%) -[ 113, 114): 0.00% (0%) -[ 114, 115): 0.00% (0%) -[ 115, 116): 0.00% (0%) -[ 116, 117): 0.00% (0%) -[ 117, 118): 0.00% (0%) -[ 118, 119): 0.00% (0%) -[ 119, 120): 0.00% (0%) -[ 120, 121): 0.00% (0%) -[ 121, 122): 0.00% (0%) -[ 122, 123): 0.00% (0%) -[ 123, 124): 0.00% (0%) -[ 124, 125): 0.00% (0%) -[ 125, 126): 0.00% (0%) -[ 126, 127): 0.00% (0%) -[ 127, 128): 0.00% (0%) -[ 128, 129): 0.00% (0%) -[ 129, 130): 0.00% (0%) -[ 130, 131): 0.00% (0%) [ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) [ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) [ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) @@ -508,395 +531,259 @@ State: South Carolina [ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%) [ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%) [ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%) -[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%) -[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%) -[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%) -[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%) -[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%) -[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%) -[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%) -[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%) -[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%) -[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%) -[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%) -[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%) -[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%) -[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%) -[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%) -[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%) -[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%) -[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%) -[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%) -[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%) -[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%) -[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%) -[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%) -[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%) -[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%) -[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%) -[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%) -[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%) -[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%) -[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%) -[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%) -[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%) -[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%) -[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%) -[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%) -[ 181, 182): 0.00% (0%) -[ 182, 183): 0.00% (0%) -[ 183, 184): 0.00% (0%) -[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%) -[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%) -[ 186, 187): 0.00% (0%) -[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) -[ 188, 189): 0.01% (0%) -[ 189, 190): 0.00% (0%) -[ 190, 191): 0.00% (0%) -[ 191, 192): 0.00% (0%) -[ 192, 193): 0.00% (0%) -[ 193, 194): 0.01% (0%) -[ 194, 195): 0.01% (0%) -[ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%) -[ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%) -[ 197, 198): 0.01% (0%) -[ 198, 199): 0.02% (0%) -[ 199, 200): 0.02% (0%) -[ 200, 201): 0.01% (0%) -[ 201, 202): 0.01% (0%) -[ 202, 203): 0.01% (0%) -[ 203, 204): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 204, 205): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 205, 206): 0.02% (0%) -[ 206, 207): 0.02% (0%) -[ 207, 208): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 208, 209): █ 0.05% (0%) -[ 209, 210): ██ 0.06% (0%) -[ 210, 211): █ 0.05% (0%) -[ 211, 212): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 212, 213): █ 0.04% (0%) -[ 213, 214): ██ 0.06% (1%) -[ 214, 215): ███ 0.10% (1%) -[ 215, 216): ████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 216, 217): ███ 0.08% (1%) -[ 217, 218): ██ 0.07% (1%) -[ 218, 219): ████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 219, 220): ███ 0.10% (1%) -[ 220, 221): █████ 0.13% (1%) -[ 221, 222): ████ 0.12% (1%) -[ 222, 223): ████ 0.12% (1%) -[ 223, 224): ██████ 0.16% (2%) -[ 224, 225): ███████ 0.18% (2%) -[ 225, 226): ███████ 0.19% (2%) -[ 226, 227): ██████ 0.16% (2%) -[ 227, 228): ██████ 0.16% (2%) -[ 228, 229): ██████████ 0.26% (3%) -[ 229, 230): ███████████ 0.29% (3%) -[ 230, 231): ██████████ 0.27% (3%) -[ 231, 232): ██████████ 0.27% (3%) -[ 232, 233): ████████████ 0.32% (4%) -[ 233, 234): ████████████ 0.31% (4%) -[ 234, 235): ██████████████ 0.37% (4%) -[ 235, 236): ███████████████ 0.38% (5%) -[ 236, 237): ██████████████ 0.36% (5%) -[ 237, 238): ██████████████ 0.37% (6%) -[ 238, 239): █████████████████ 0.45% (6%) -[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████ 0.58% (7%) -[ 240, 241): ████████████████████ 0.52% (7%) -[ 241, 242): █████████████████ 0.45% (8%) -[ 242, 243): ██████████████████ 0.45% (8%) -[ 243, 244): ██████████████████████ 0.56% (9%) -[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████ 0.71% (9%) -[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████ 0.78% (10%) -[ 246, 247): █████████████████████████ 0.64% (11%) -[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████ 0.64% (11%) -[ 248, 249): ███████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%) -[ 249, 250): █████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (13%) -[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (14%) -[ 251, 252): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (15%) -[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████ 0.77% (15%) -[ 253, 254): ███████████████████████████████ 0.80% (16%) -[ 254, 255): █████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (17%) -[ 255, 256): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (18%) -[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (20%) -[ 257, 258): ████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (21%) -[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (22%) -[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (23%) -[ 260, 261): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (24%) -[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (26%) -[ 262, 263): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (27%) -[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.18% (28%) -[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (30%) -[ 265, 266): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (31%) -[ 266, 267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (33%) -[ 267, 268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (34%) -[ 268, 269): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (36%) -[ 269, 270): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (37%) -[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (39%) -[ 271, 272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.75% (40%) -[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (42%) -[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (44%) -[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (45%) -[ 275, 276): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (47%) -[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.85% (49%) -[ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.88% (51%) -[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (52%) -[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.69% (54%) -[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.79% (56%) -[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.80% (57%) -[ 282, 283): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (59%) -[ 283, 284): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%) -[ 284, 285): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (62%) -[ 285, 286): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (64%) -[ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (66%) -[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.70% (67%) -[ 288, 289): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (69%) -[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (70%) -[ 290, 291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.79% (72%) -[ 291, 292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (74%) -[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (75%) -[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (76%) -[ 294, 295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (78%) -[ 295, 296): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (79%) -[ 296, 297): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (81%) -[ 297, 298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (82%) -[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (83%) -[ 299, 300): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (84%) -[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (85%) -[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (87%) -[ 302, 303): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (88%) -[ 303, 304): █████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (88%) -[ 304, 305): ██████████████████████████████ 0.75% (89%) -[ 305, 306): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (90%) -[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (91%) -[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████ 0.75% (92%) -[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████ 0.57% (93%) -[ 309, 310): ████████████████████████████ 0.72% (93%) -[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████ 0.69% (94%) -[ 311, 312): ███████████████████████ 0.60% (95%) -[ 312, 313): ████████████████████████ 0.61% (95%) -[ 313, 314): █████████████████████ 0.53% (96%) -[ 314, 315): ███████████████ 0.39% (96%) -[ 315, 316): █████████████████ 0.43% (96%) -[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.44% (97%) -[ 317, 318): ██████████ 0.25% (97%) -[ 318, 319): ████████████ 0.30% (97%) -[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.43% (98%) -[ 320, 321): ███████████ 0.29% (98%) -[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.19% (98%) -[ 322, 323): ███████ 0.19% (99%) -[ 323, 324): ███████ 0.18% (99%) -[ 324, 325): ███████ 0.18% (99%) -[ 325, 326): █████████ 0.23% (99%) -[ 326, 327): ████ 0.11% (99%) -[ 327, 328): ██ 0.07% (99%) -[ 328, 329): ███ 0.10% (99%) -[ 329, 330): █████ 0.14% (100%) -[ 330, 331): ███ 0.09% (100%) -[ 331, 332): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 332, 333): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 333, 334): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 334, 335): ██ 0.05% (100%) -[ 335, 336): ██ 0.07% (100%) -[ 336, 337): 0.02% (100%) -[ 337, 338): 0.01% (100%) -[ 338, 339): 0.02% (100%) -[ 339, 340): 0.02% (100%) -[ 340, 341): 0.02% (100%) -[ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%) -[ 342, 343): 0.00% (100%) -[ 343, 344): 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+[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (27%) +[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (28%) +[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (29%) +[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (30%) +[ 248, 249): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (31%) +[ 249, 250): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (31%) +[ 250, 251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (32%) +[ 251, 252): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (33%) +[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (34%) +[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (35%) +[ 254, 255): 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██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (44%) +[ 265, 266): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (45%) +[ 266, 267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (46%) +[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (47%) +[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (48%) +[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (49%) +[ 270, 271): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (50%) +[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (51%) +[ 272, 273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (52%) +[ 273, 274): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (53%) +[ 274, 275): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (53%) +[ 275, 276): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (54%) +[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (55%) +[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (56%) +[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (57%) +[ 279, 280): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (58%) +[ 280, 281): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (59%) +[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (60%) +[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (60%) +[ 283, 284): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (61%) +[ 284, 285): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (62%) +[ 285, 286): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (63%) +[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (64%) +[ 287, 288): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (65%) +[ 288, 289): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (66%) +[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (66%) +[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (67%) +[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (68%) +[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (69%) +[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (70%) +[ 294, 295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (70%) +[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (71%) +[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (72%) +[ 297, 298): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (73%) +[ 298, 299): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (73%) +[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (74%) +[ 300, 301): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (75%) +[ 301, 302): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (75%) +[ 302, 303): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (76%) +[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (77%) +[ 304, 305): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (77%) +[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (78%) +[ 306, 307): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (79%) +[ 307, 308): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (79%) +[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (80%) +[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (81%) +[ 310, 311): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (81%) +[ 311, 312): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (82%) +[ 312, 313): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (82%) +[ 313, 314): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (83%) +[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (83%) +[ 315, 316): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (84%) +[ 316, 317): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.52% (84%) +[ 317, 318): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.50% (85%) +[ 318, 319): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.50% (85%) +[ 319, 320): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.49% (86%) +[ 320, 321): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (86%) +[ 321, 322): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.46% (87%) +[ 322, 323): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.45% (87%) +[ 323, 324): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (88%) +[ 324, 325): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (88%) +[ 325, 326): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.42% (89%) +[ 326, 327): █████████████████████████████████ 0.41% (89%) +[ 327, 328): █████████████████████████████████ 0.41% (89%) +[ 328, 329): ████████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%) +[ 329, 330): ███████████████████████████████ 0.38% (90%) +[ 330, 331): ██████████████████████████████ 0.37% (91%) +[ 331, 332): █████████████████████████████ 0.36% (91%) +[ 332, 333): █████████████████████████████ 0.36% (91%) +[ 333, 334): ███████████████████████████ 0.33% (92%) +[ 334, 335): ████████████████████████████ 0.34% (92%) +[ 335, 336): ██████████████████████████ 0.32% (92%) +[ 336, 337): ██████████████████████████ 0.32% (93%) +[ 337, 338): ████████████████████████ 0.30% (93%) +[ 338, 339): ████████████████████████ 0.30% (93%) +[ 339, 340): ███████████████████████ 0.29% (93%) +[ 340, 341): ███████████████████████ 0.28% (94%) +[ 341, 342): ██████████████████████ 0.28% (94%) +[ 342, 343): █████████████████████ 0.27% (94%) +[ 343, 344): ████████████████████ 0.25% (95%) +[ 344, 345): ████████████████████ 0.26% (95%) +[ 345, 346): ███████████████████ 0.24% (95%) +[ 346, 347): ███████████████████ 0.24% (95%) +[ 347, 348): ██████████████████ 0.22% (95%) +[ 348, 349): █████████████████ 0.22% (96%) +[ 349, 350): ██████████████████ 0.22% (96%) +[ 350, 351): █████████████████ 0.22% (96%) +[ 351, 352): ███████████████ 0.19% (96%) +[ 352, 353): ███████████████ 0.19% (97%) +[ 353, 354): ██████████████ 0.18% (97%) +[ 354, 355): ██████████████ 0.18% (97%) +[ 355, 356): ██████████████ 0.17% (97%) +[ 356, 357): ████████████ 0.16% (97%) +[ 357, 358): █████████████ 0.16% (97%) +[ 358, 359): ████████████ 0.15% (98%) +[ 359, 360): ███████████ 0.14% (98%) +[ 360, 361): ███████████ 0.13% (98%) +[ 361, 362): ██████████ 0.13% (98%) +[ 362, 363): ██████████ 0.13% (98%) +[ 363, 364): █████████ 0.12% (98%) +[ 364, 365): █████████ 0.12% (98%) +[ 365, 366): ████████ 0.11% (98%) +[ 366, 367): ████████ 0.10% (98%) +[ 367, 368): ████████ 0.10% (99%) +[ 368, 369): ███████ 0.09% (99%) +[ 369, 370): ███████ 0.09% (99%) +[ 370, 371): ██████ 0.09% (99%) +[ 371, 372): ██████ 0.08% (99%) +[ 372, 373): ██████ 0.08% (99%) +[ 373, 374): █████ 0.07% (99%) +[ 374, 375): █████ 0.07% (99%) +[ 375, 376): █████ 0.07% (99%) +[ 376, 377): ████ 0.06% (99%) +[ 377, 378): ████ 0.06% (99%) +[ 378, 379): ████ 0.05% (99%) +[ 379, 380): ███ 0.05% (99%) +[ 380, 381): ████ 0.05% (99%) +[ 381, 382): ███ 0.04% (100%) +[ 382, 383): ███ 0.04% (100%) +[ 383, 384): ███ 0.04% (100%) +[ 384, 385): ██ 0.03% (100%) +[ 385, 386): ██ 0.03% (100%) +[ 386, 387): ██ 0.03% (100%) +[ 387, 388): ██ 0.03% (100%) +[ 388, 389): ██ 0.03% (100%) +[ 389, 390): █ 0.02% (100%) +[ 390, 391): █ 0.02% (100%) +[ 391, 392): █ 0.02% (100%) +[ 392, 393): █ 0.02% (100%) +[ 393, 394): █ 0.01% (100%) +[ 394, 395): █ 0.01% (100%) +[ 395, 396): █ 0.01% (100%) +[ 396, 397): 0.01% (100%) +[ 397, 398): 0.01% (100%) +[ 398, 399): 0.01% (100%) +[ 399, 400): 0.01% (100%) + +% republicans: 0.510923