add simulate election function; consider Maine and Nebraska separately
This commit is contained in:
parent
d1dc3a5e75
commit
9ca60febac
3
data/results/src.txt
Normal file
3
data/results/src.txt
Normal file
|
@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|||
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
|
||||
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/[year]
|
||||
|
72
main.go
72
main.go
|
@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ type VotesForEachParty struct {
|
|||
Republicans int
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
type src = *rand.Rand
|
||||
// type src = *rand.Rand
|
||||
|
||||
/* Globals */
|
||||
var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(1), uint64(2)))
|
||||
|
@ -97,9 +97,31 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
|
|||
func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
|
||||
switch state.Name {
|
||||
case "Nebraska":
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
|
||||
// 2000: R
|
||||
// 2004: R
|
||||
// 2008: Split, 1 D, 4 R
|
||||
// 2012: R
|
||||
// 2016: R
|
||||
// 2020: Split, 1 D, 4 R
|
||||
p_split := float64(2 / 6)
|
||||
if r.Float64() < p_split {
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 4}
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: 5}
|
||||
}
|
||||
case "Maine":
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
|
||||
// 2000: D
|
||||
// 2004: D
|
||||
// 2008: D
|
||||
// 2012: D
|
||||
// 2016: Split: 3 D, 1 R
|
||||
// 2020: Split, 3 D, 1 R
|
||||
p_split := float64(2 / 6)
|
||||
if r.Float64() < p_split {
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 3, Republicans: 1}
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
|
||||
}
|
||||
default:
|
||||
{
|
||||
p_republican := 0.0
|
||||
|
@ -118,6 +140,32 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
|
|||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
func simulateElection(states []State) int {
|
||||
|
||||
republican_seats := 0
|
||||
for _, state := range states {
|
||||
election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
|
||||
republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
|
||||
/*
|
||||
fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
|
||||
for year, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
|
||||
fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
fmt.Printf("\n\tSample: Democrat seats: %d, Republican seats: %d", election_sample.Democrats, election_sample.Republicans)
|
||||
fmt.Println()
|
||||
*/
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// fmt.Printf("\nDemocrat seats: %d\n", republican_seats)
|
||||
if republican_seats > 270 {
|
||||
return 1
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
return 0
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
func main() {
|
||||
states, err := readStates()
|
||||
if err != nil {
|
||||
|
@ -125,15 +173,17 @@ func main() {
|
|||
return
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
for _, state := range states {
|
||||
fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
|
||||
for year, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
|
||||
fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
|
||||
}
|
||||
election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
|
||||
fmt.Printf("\n\tSample: Democrat seats: %d, Republican seats: %d", election_sample.Democrats, election_sample.Republicans)
|
||||
fmt.Println()
|
||||
n_sims := 100_000
|
||||
|
||||
p_republicans := 0.0
|
||||
for _ = range n_sims {
|
||||
result := simulateElection(states)
|
||||
fmt.Printf("Election result: %d\n", result)
|
||||
if result == 1 {
|
||||
p_republicans++
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims)
|
||||
fmt.Printf("%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user