From 98064be7bafa5c9e2f3acd2c86d3e3f8ac064b30 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 18:03:38 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] update top of histogram --- out/output-2024-06-11.txt | 1554 ++++++++++++++++++++----------------- 1 file changed, 846 insertions(+), 708 deletions(-) diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt index b9d51b4..a41e2b5 100644 --- a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt +++ b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt @@ -1,74 +1,63 @@ go run main.go -State: Pennsylvania +State: Illinois Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 678.900000 - Mean R: 51.612903 - Std of mean R: 1.917967 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398 - Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 423.690000 - Mean R: 48.275862 - Std of mean R: 2.427658 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258 - Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 856.800000 - Mean R: 49.411765 - Std of mean R: 1.708049 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1959.000000 - Mean R: 49.928804 - Std of mean R: 1.129672 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463 - -State: Maine - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Maryland - Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Mississippi - Votes: 6 +State: North Carolina + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 456.000000 + Mean R: 57.894737 + Std of mean R: 2.312093 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484 + Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 659.650000 + Mean R: 51.898734 + Std of mean R: 1.945359 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275 + Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 534.890000 + Mean R: 53.932584 + Std of mean R: 2.155214 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557 + Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1212.120000 + Mean R: 52.747253 + Std of mean R: 1.433972 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421 + Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 410.640000 + Mean R: 51.724138 + Std of mean R: 2.465932 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3273.000000 + Mean R: 53.358690 + Std of mean R: 0.871997 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710 + +State: Oklahoma + Votes: 7 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Missouri - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: New Mexico - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - -State: North Dakota - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Oregon - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - State: South Dakota Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] @@ -92,342 +81,11 @@ State: South Dakota Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855 -State: Texas - Votes: 40 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Arkansas - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Connecticut - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Montana - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Delaware +State: Vermont Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: District of Columbia - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Indiana - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - -State: Tennessee - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Ohio - Votes: 17 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1011.930000 - Mean R: 53.932584 - Std of mean R: 1.566922 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036 - Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 705.760000 - Mean R: 54.545455 - Std of mean R: 1.874301 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1717.000000 - Mean R: 54.184399 - Std of mean R: 1.202427 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393 - -State: Arizona - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 499.989000 - Mean R: 52.131547 - Std of mean R: 2.234060 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794 - Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1002.120000 - Mean R: 52.380952 - Std of mean R: 1.577674 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264 - Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 792.370000 - Mean R: 54.430380 - Std of mean R: 1.769271 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735 - Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 411.600000 - Mean R: 52.380952 - Std of mean R: 2.461724 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739 - Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 469.030000 - Mean R: 50.561798 - Std of mean R: 2.308566 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480 - Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 952.650000 - Mean R: 52.873563 - Std of mean R: 1.617279 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 4127.000000 - Mean R: 52.651136 - Std of mean R: 0.777215 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537 - -State: Florida - Votes: 30 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 861.000000 - Mean R: 56.097561 - Std of mean R: 1.691277 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002 - Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1003.850000 - Mean R: 57.647059 - Std of mean R: 1.559538 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509 - Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 935.250000 - Mean R: 54.022989 - Std of mean R: 1.629656 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574 - Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 422.820000 - Mean R: 55.172414 - Std of mean R: 2.418555 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.14319933476474 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3222.000000 - Mean R: 55.856801 - Std of mean R: 0.874797 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211 - -State: Louisiana - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Michigan - Votes: 15 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 634.270000 - Mean R: 50.549451 - Std of mean R: 1.985211 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572 - Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 648.940000 - Mean R: 50.656455 - Std of mean R: 1.962593 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833 - Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 414.520000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.455160 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524 - Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 557.520000 - Mean R: 51.086957 - Std of mean R: 2.117079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518 - Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 628.140000 - Mean R: 49.425287 - Std of mean R: 1.994863 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2883.000000 - Mean R: 50.186413 - Std of mean R: 0.931204 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077 - -State: Nebraska - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: Nevada - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 357.780000 - Mean R: 55.056180 - Std of mean R: 2.629844 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161 - Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 908.650000 - Mean R: 52.941176 - Std of mean R: 1.655842 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477 - Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 449.964000 - Mean R: 53.596288 - Std of mean R: 2.351012 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390 - Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 407.160000 - Mean R: 50.574713 - Std of mean R: 2.477757 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348 - Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 546.910000 - Mean R: 51.648352 - Std of mean R: 2.136859 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881 - Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Sample size: 426.000000 - Mean R: 52.112676 - Std of mean R: 2.420344 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945 - Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 431.460000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.407131 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3527.000000 - Mean R: 52.305945 - Std of mean R: 0.841017 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082 - -State: New York - Votes: 28 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1012.350000 - Mean R: 44.705882 - Std of mean R: 1.562631 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767 - Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1000.000000 - Mean R: 44.800000 - Std of mean R: 1.572565 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2012.000000 - Mean R: 44.752652 - Std of mean R: 1.108539 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821 - -State: Virginia - Votes: 13 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 554.580000 - Mean R: 48.717949 - Std of mean R: 2.122487 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068 - Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 918.810000 - Mean R: 49.397590 - Std of mean R: 1.649399 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1473.000000 - Mean R: 49.141775 - Std of mean R: 1.302581 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712 - State: Wisconsin Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] @@ -468,48 +126,102 @@ State: Wisconsin Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348 -State: Alabama - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: California - Votes: 54 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Hawaii - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Iowa - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: Minnesota +State: Colorado Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 680.800000 - Mean R: 47.708578 - Std of mean R: 1.914272 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 680.000000 - Mean R: 47.708578 - Std of mean R: 1.915398 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + +State: Georgia + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 390.100000 + Mean R: 50.602410 + Std of mean R: 2.531340 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744 + Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.000000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.138639 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851 + Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 962.400000 + Mean R: 53.750000 + Std of mean R: 1.607190 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1898.000000 + Mean R: 52.498815 + Std of mean R: 1.146249 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361 + +State: Ohio + Votes: 17 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1011.930000 + Mean R: 53.932584 + Std of mean R: 1.566922 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036 + Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 705.760000 + Mean R: 54.545455 + Std of mean R: 1.874301 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1717.000000 + Mean R: 54.184399 + Std of mean R: 1.202427 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393 + +State: Pennsylvania + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 423.690000 + Mean R: 48.275862 + Std of mean R: 2.427658 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258 + Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 678.900000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 1.917967 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398 + Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 856.800000 + Mean R: 49.411765 + Std of mean R: 1.708049 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1959.000000 + Mean R: 49.928804 + Std of mean R: 1.129672 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463 State: Washington Votes: 12 @@ -543,125 +255,118 @@ State: Washington Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854 -State: Wyoming - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Colorado - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - -State: Georgia - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 962.400000 - Mean R: 53.750000 - Std of mean R: 1.607190 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183 - Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 390.100000 - Mean R: 50.602410 - Std of mean R: 2.531340 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744 - Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 546.000000 - Mean R: 51.648352 - Std of mean R: 2.138639 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1898.000000 - Mean R: 52.498815 - Std of mean R: 1.146249 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361 - -State: New Hampshire - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 630.122000 - Mean R: 50.068399 - Std of mean R: 1.991853 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554 - Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 468.000000 - Mean R: 46.153846 - Std of mean R: 2.304403 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906 - Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1140.000000 - Mean R: 48.000000 - Std of mean R: 1.479687 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2238.000000 - Mean R: 48.196300 - Std of mean R: 1.056227 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648 - -State: Oklahoma - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Rhode Island - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 538.000000 - Mean R: 40.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.112100 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 538.000000 - Mean R: 40.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.112100 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 - -State: South Carolina +State: Alabama Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Idaho - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - State: Kansas Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 +State: Kentucky + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Minnesota + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 680.800000 + Mean R: 47.708578 + Std of mean R: 1.914272 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 680.000000 + Mean R: 47.708578 + Std of mean R: 1.915398 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303 + +State: Missouri + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Tennessee + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Arizona + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 952.650000 + Mean R: 52.873563 + Std of mean R: 1.617279 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520 + Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 499.989000 + Mean R: 52.131547 + Std of mean R: 2.234060 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794 + Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 792.370000 + Mean R: 54.430380 + Std of mean R: 1.769271 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735 + Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 469.030000 + Mean R: 50.561798 + Std of mean R: 2.308566 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480 + Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 411.600000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 2.461724 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739 + Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1002.120000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 1.577674 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 4127.000000 + Mean R: 52.651136 + Std of mean R: 0.777215 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537 + +State: Iowa + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Maine + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + State: Massachusetts Votes: 11 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] @@ -694,83 +399,373 @@ State: Massachusetts Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 -State: North Carolina - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 456.000000 - Mean R: 57.894737 - Std of mean R: 2.312093 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484 - Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 534.890000 - Mean R: 53.932584 - Std of mean R: 2.155214 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557 - Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 410.640000 - Mean R: 51.724138 - Std of mean R: 2.465932 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131 - Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 659.650000 - Mean R: 51.898734 - Std of mean R: 1.945359 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275 - Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1212.120000 - Mean R: 52.747253 - Std of mean R: 1.433972 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3273.000000 - Mean R: 53.358690 - Std of mean R: 0.871997 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710 +State: Mississippi + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Alaska +State: Montana + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Nebraska + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Texas + Votes: 40 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: District of Columbia Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Illinois - Votes: 19 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Kentucky - Votes: 8 +State: Florida + Votes: 30 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 935.250000 + Mean R: 54.022989 + Std of mean R: 1.629656 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574 + Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 422.820000 + Mean R: 55.172414 + Std of mean R: 2.418555 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836 + Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 861.000000 + Mean R: 56.097561 + Std of mean R: 1.691277 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002 + Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1003.850000 + Mean R: 57.647059 + Std of mean R: 1.559538 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3222.000000 + Mean R: 55.856801 + Std of mean R: 0.874797 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211 + +State: Idaho + Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: New Jersey - Votes: 14 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Michigan + Votes: 15 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 648.940000 + Mean R: 50.656455 + Std of mean R: 1.962593 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833 + Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 628.140000 + Mean R: 49.425287 + Std of mean R: 1.994863 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813 + Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 414.520000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.455160 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524 + Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 634.270000 + Mean R: 50.549451 + Std of mean R: 1.985211 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572 + Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 557.520000 + Mean R: 51.086957 + Std of mean R: 2.117079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2883.000000 + Mean R: 50.186413 + Std of mean R: 0.931204 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077 State: Utah Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Vermont +State: Virginia + Votes: 13 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 918.810000 + Mean R: 49.397590 + Std of mean R: 1.649399 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540 + Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 554.580000 + Mean R: 48.717949 + Std of mean R: 2.122487 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1473.000000 + Mean R: 49.141775 + Std of mean R: 1.302581 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712 + +State: Delaware Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: California + Votes: 54 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Hawaii + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Indiana + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + +State: New Jersey + Votes: 14 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Oregon + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Alaska + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Louisiana + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Nevada + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 908.650000 + Mean R: 52.941176 + Std of mean R: 1.655842 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477 + Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 407.160000 + Mean R: 50.574713 + Std of mean R: 2.477757 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348 + Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 357.780000 + Mean R: 55.056180 + Std of mean R: 2.629844 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161 + Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.910000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.136859 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881 + Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 426.000000 + Mean R: 52.112676 + Std of mean R: 2.420344 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945 + Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 431.460000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.407131 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 449.964000 + Mean R: 53.596288 + Std of mean R: 2.351012 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3527.000000 + Mean R: 52.305945 + Std of mean R: 0.841017 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082 + +State: New Hampshire + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1140.000000 + Mean R: 48.000000 + Std of mean R: 1.479687 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562 + Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 630.122000 + Mean R: 50.068399 + Std of mean R: 1.991853 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554 + Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 468.000000 + Mean R: 46.153846 + Std of mean R: 2.304403 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2238.000000 + Mean R: 48.196300 + Std of mean R: 1.056227 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648 + +State: New Mexico + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + +State: North Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Rhode Island + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 + +State: South Carolina + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Arkansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Wyoming + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Maryland + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: New York + Votes: 28 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1000.000000 + Mean R: 44.800000 + Std of mean R: 1.572565 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770 + Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1012.350000 + Mean R: 44.705882 + Std of mean R: 1.562631 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2012.000000 + Mean R: 44.752652 + Std of mean R: 1.108539 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821 + State: West Virginia Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] @@ -794,6 +789,11 @@ State: West Virginia Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972 Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993 +State: Connecticut + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + [ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) [ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) [ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) @@ -853,7 +853,7 @@ State: West Virginia [ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) [ 188, 189): 0.01% (0%) [ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%) -[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%) +[ 190, 191): 0.00% (0%) [ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%) [ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%) [ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%) @@ -861,147 +861,147 @@ State: West Virginia [ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%) [ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%) [ 197, 198): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%) [ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%) [ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 201, 202): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 202, 203): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 203, 204): ███ 0.05% (0%) +[ 201, 202): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (0%) +[ 203, 204): ██ 0.05% (0%) [ 204, 205): ███ 0.06% (0%) [ 205, 206): ███ 0.06% (1%) [ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%) -[ 207, 208): ███ 0.05% (1%) +[ 207, 208): ███ 0.06% (1%) [ 208, 209): ████ 0.07% (1%) [ 209, 210): █████ 0.09% (1%) -[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%) +[ 210, 211): ████ 0.08% (1%) [ 211, 212): ████ 0.08% (1%) [ 212, 213): █████ 0.10% (1%) [ 213, 214): ██████ 0.11% (1%) -[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.12% (1%) -[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.14% (1%) -[ 216, 217): ███████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 217, 218): ███████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 218, 219): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) -[ 219, 220): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.13% (1%) +[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.15% (1%) +[ 216, 217): ████████ 0.14% (2%) +[ 217, 218): ████████ 0.15% (2%) +[ 218, 219): █████████ 0.17% (2%) +[ 219, 220): ███████████ 0.19% (2%) [ 220, 221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) [ 221, 222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%) -[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.22% (3%) +[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.21% (3%) [ 223, 224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%) -[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.26% (3%) -[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.28% (3%) -[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.26% (4%) -[ 227, 228): ███████████████ 0.28% (4%) -[ 228, 229): ████████████████████ 0.36% (4%) +[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%) +[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.27% (3%) +[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.27% (4%) +[ 227, 228): ████████████████ 0.28% (4%) +[ 228, 229): █████████████████████ 0.37% (4%) [ 229, 230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%) -[ 230, 231): █████████████████████ 0.37% (5%) -[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%) -[ 232, 233): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (6%) -[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████ 0.45% (6%) +[ 230, 231): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%) +[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.35% (5%) +[ 232, 233): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (6%) +[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (6%) [ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%) [ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%) -[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (8%) -[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%) -[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (9%) +[ 236, 237): ████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%) +[ 237, 238): ███████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%) +[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%) [ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%) -[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (10%) -[ 241, 242): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (11%) -[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (12%) -[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (12%) -[ 244, 245): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (13%) +[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (10%) +[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (11%) +[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (12%) +[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%) +[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (13%) [ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%) -[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (15%) -[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%) -[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (17%) -[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (18%) -[ 250, 251): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (19%) +[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (15%) +[ 247, 248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%) +[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (17%) +[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (18%) +[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (19%) [ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%) -[ 252, 253): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (21%) -[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (22%) -[ 254, 255): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%) +[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%) +[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%) +[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%) [ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (24%) -[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (26%) -[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (27%) -[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (28%) -[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%) -[ 260, 261): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (31%) -[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%) -[ 262, 263): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (34%) -[ 263, 264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (35%) -[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (36%) -[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (38%) -[ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (40%) -[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (41%) +[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%) +[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (27%) +[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (28%) +[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%) +[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (31%) +[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%) +[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (34%) +[ 263, 264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (35%) +[ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (36%) +[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (38%) +[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (40%) +[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (41%) [ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (43%) -[ 269, 270): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (44%) -[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (46%) -[ 271, 272): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%) -[ 272, 273): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (49%) -[ 273, 274): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (51%) -[ 274, 275): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (52%) -[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.75% (54%) -[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%) -[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (57%) -[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (59%) -[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%) -[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (62%) -[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (64%) -[ 282, 283): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (65%) -[ 283, 284): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (67%) -[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (68%) -[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (70%) -[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (71%) -[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (73%) -[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%) -[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (75%) -[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (77%) -[ 291, 292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (78%) +[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (44%) +[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (46%) +[ 271, 272): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%) +[ 272, 273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (49%) +[ 273, 274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (51%) +[ 274, 275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (52%) +[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.73% (54%) +[ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%) +[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (57%) +[ 278, 279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (59%) +[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%) +[ 280, 281): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (62%) +[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (64%) +[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (65%) +[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (67%) +[ 284, 285): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (68%) +[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (70%) +[ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (71%) +[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (73%) +[ 288, 289): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (74%) +[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (75%) +[ 290, 291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (77%) +[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (78%) [ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%) [ 293, 294): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (81%) [ 294, 295): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (82%) -[ 295, 296): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%) -[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (84%) -[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (85%) -[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (86%) +[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%) +[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (84%) +[ 297, 298): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (85%) +[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (86%) [ 299, 300): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%) -[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (88%) -[ 301, 302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (89%) -[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (90%) -[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (90%) -[ 304, 305): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (91%) -[ 305, 306): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%) -[ 306, 307): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (93%) +[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (88%) +[ 301, 302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (89%) +[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%) +[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (91%) +[ 304, 305): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (91%) +[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%) +[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (93%) [ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%) -[ 308, 309): ████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%) +[ 308, 309): ███████████████████████████████ 0.55% (94%) [ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%) -[ 310, 311): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (95%) +[ 310, 311): ████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (95%) [ 311, 312): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (95%) -[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████ 0.40% (96%) -[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (96%) -[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.42% (97%) -[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.34% (97%) -[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.31% (97%) -[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.24% (98%) -[ 318, 319): ██████████████ 0.26% (98%) -[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.31% (98%) -[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.24% (98%) -[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.13% (98%) +[ 312, 313): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (96%) +[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%) +[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (97%) +[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.33% (97%) +[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.30% (97%) +[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.23% (98%) +[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%) +[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.32% (98%) +[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.23% (98%) +[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.14% (98%) [ 322, 323): ████████ 0.15% (99%) [ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.19% (99%) -[ 324, 325): ██████████ 0.18% (99%) -[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.16% (99%) +[ 324, 325): █████████ 0.17% (99%) +[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.15% (99%) [ 326, 327): █████ 0.10% (99%) [ 327, 328): ███ 0.07% (99%) -[ 328, 329): █████ 0.09% (99%) +[ 328, 329): ████ 0.09% (99%) [ 329, 330): ███████ 0.13% (100%) [ 330, 331): ████ 0.07% (100%) -[ 331, 332): ██ 0.04% (100%) +[ 331, 332): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 332, 333): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 333, 334): ███ 0.05% (100%) [ 334, 335): ███ 0.06% (100%) [ 335, 336): ██ 0.05% (100%) [ 336, 337): █ 0.02% (100%) [ 337, 338): 0.01% (100%) -[ 338, 339): █ 0.03% (100%) +[ 338, 339): █ 0.02% (100%) [ 339, 340): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 340, 341): █ 0.02% (100%) [ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%) @@ -1009,10 +1009,10 @@ State: West Virginia [ 343, 344): 0.01% (100%) [ 344, 345): 0.01% (100%) [ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%) -[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%) +[ 346, 347): 0.00% (100%) [ 347, 348): 0.00% (100%) [ 348, 349): 0.00% (100%) -[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%) +[ 349, 350): 0.00% (100%) [ 350, 351): 0.00% (100%) [ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%) [ 352, 353): 0.00% (100%) @@ -1063,5 +1063,143 @@ State: West Virginia [ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%) [ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%) [ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%) +[ 400, 401): 0.00% (100%) +[ 401, 402): 0.00% (100%) +[ 402, 403): 0.00% (100%) +[ 403, 404): 0.00% (100%) +[ 404, 405): 0.00% (100%) +[ 405, 406): 0.00% (100%) +[ 406, 407): 0.00% (100%) +[ 407, 408): 0.00% (100%) +[ 408, 409): 0.00% (100%) +[ 409, 410): 0.00% (100%) +[ 410, 411): 0.00% (100%) +[ 411, 412): 0.00% (100%) +[ 412, 413): 0.00% (100%) +[ 413, 414): 0.00% (100%) +[ 414, 415): 0.00% (100%) +[ 415, 416): 0.00% (100%) +[ 416, 417): 0.00% (100%) +[ 417, 418): 0.00% (100%) +[ 418, 419): 0.00% (100%) +[ 419, 420): 0.00% (100%) +[ 420, 421): 0.00% (100%) +[ 421, 422): 0.00% (100%) +[ 422, 423): 0.00% (100%) +[ 423, 424): 0.00% (100%) +[ 424, 425): 0.00% (100%) +[ 425, 426): 0.00% (100%) +[ 426, 427): 0.00% (100%) +[ 427, 428): 0.00% (100%) +[ 428, 429): 0.00% (100%) +[ 429, 430): 0.00% (100%) +[ 430, 431): 0.00% (100%) +[ 431, 432): 0.00% (100%) +[ 432, 433): 0.00% (100%) +[ 433, 434): 0.00% (100%) +[ 434, 435): 0.00% (100%) +[ 435, 436): 0.00% (100%) +[ 436, 437): 0.00% (100%) +[ 437, 438): 0.00% (100%) +[ 438, 439): 0.00% (100%) +[ 439, 440): 0.00% (100%) +[ 440, 441): 0.00% (100%) +[ 441, 442): 0.00% (100%) +[ 442, 443): 0.00% (100%) +[ 443, 444): 0.00% (100%) +[ 444, 445): 0.00% (100%) +[ 445, 446): 0.00% (100%) +[ 446, 447): 0.00% (100%) +[ 447, 448): 0.00% (100%) +[ 448, 449): 0.00% (100%) +[ 449, 450): 0.00% (100%) +[ 450, 451): 0.00% (100%) +[ 451, 452): 0.00% (100%) +[ 452, 453): 0.00% (100%) +[ 453, 454): 0.00% (100%) +[ 454, 455): 0.00% (100%) +[ 455, 456): 0.00% (100%) +[ 456, 457): 0.00% (100%) +[ 457, 458): 0.00% (100%) +[ 458, 459): 0.00% (100%) +[ 459, 460): 0.00% (100%) +[ 460, 461): 0.00% (100%) +[ 461, 462): 0.00% (100%) +[ 462, 463): 0.00% (100%) +[ 463, 464): 0.00% (100%) +[ 464, 465): 0.00% (100%) +[ 465, 466): 0.00% (100%) +[ 466, 467): 0.00% (100%) +[ 467, 468): 0.00% (100%) +[ 468, 469): 0.00% (100%) +[ 469, 470): 0.00% (100%) +[ 470, 471): 0.00% (100%) +[ 471, 472): 0.00% (100%) +[ 472, 473): 0.00% (100%) +[ 473, 474): 0.00% (100%) +[ 474, 475): 0.00% (100%) +[ 475, 476): 0.00% (100%) +[ 476, 477): 0.00% (100%) +[ 477, 478): 0.00% (100%) +[ 478, 479): 0.00% (100%) +[ 479, 480): 0.00% (100%) +[ 480, 481): 0.00% (100%) +[ 481, 482): 0.00% (100%) +[ 482, 483): 0.00% (100%) +[ 483, 484): 0.00% (100%) +[ 484, 485): 0.00% (100%) +[ 485, 486): 0.00% (100%) +[ 486, 487): 0.00% (100%) +[ 487, 488): 0.00% (100%) +[ 488, 489): 0.00% (100%) +[ 489, 490): 0.00% (100%) +[ 490, 491): 0.00% (100%) +[ 491, 492): 0.00% (100%) +[ 492, 493): 0.00% (100%) +[ 493, 494): 0.00% (100%) +[ 494, 495): 0.00% (100%) +[ 495, 496): 0.00% (100%) +[ 496, 497): 0.00% (100%) +[ 497, 498): 0.00% (100%) +[ 498, 499): 0.00% (100%) +[ 499, 500): 0.00% (100%) +[ 500, 501): 0.00% (100%) +[ 501, 502): 0.00% (100%) +[ 502, 503): 0.00% (100%) +[ 503, 504): 0.00% (100%) +[ 504, 505): 0.00% (100%) +[ 505, 506): 0.00% (100%) +[ 506, 507): 0.00% (100%) +[ 507, 508): 0.00% (100%) +[ 508, 509): 0.00% (100%) +[ 509, 510): 0.00% (100%) +[ 510, 511): 0.00% (100%) +[ 511, 512): 0.00% (100%) +[ 512, 513): 0.00% (100%) +[ 513, 514): 0.00% (100%) +[ 514, 515): 0.00% (100%) +[ 515, 516): 0.00% (100%) +[ 516, 517): 0.00% (100%) +[ 517, 518): 0.00% (100%) +[ 518, 519): 0.00% (100%) +[ 519, 520): 0.00% (100%) +[ 520, 521): 0.00% (100%) +[ 521, 522): 0.00% (100%) +[ 522, 523): 0.00% (100%) +[ 523, 524): 0.00% (100%) +[ 524, 525): 0.00% (100%) +[ 525, 526): 0.00% (100%) +[ 526, 527): 0.00% (100%) +[ 527, 528): 0.00% (100%) +[ 528, 529): 0.00% (100%) +[ 529, 530): 0.00% (100%) +[ 530, 531): 0.00% (100%) +[ 531, 532): 0.00% (100%) +[ 532, 533): 0.00% (100%) +[ 533, 534): 0.00% (100%) +[ 534, 535): 0.00% (100%) +[ 535, 536): 0.00% (100%) +[ 536, 537): 0.00% (100%) +[ 537, 538): 0.00% (100%) -% republicans: 0.557333 +% republicans: 0.557435