diff --git a/main.go b/main.go index 6f12807..891bb4a 100644 --- a/main.go +++ b/main.go @@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett - Increased polarization Also note that the polls already have some error already */ - std_additional_uncertainty := 5.0 / 100.0 + std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0 if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 { // if solid states for the last 6 elections diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt index 00eb78e..b9d51b4 100644 --- a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt +++ b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt @@ -1,432 +1,73 @@ go run main.go -State: New York - Votes: 28 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1012.350000 - Mean R: 44.705882 - Std of mean R: 1.562631 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565 - Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1000.000000 - Mean R: 44.800000 - Std of mean R: 1.572565 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2012.000000 - Mean R: 44.752652 - Std of mean R: 1.108539 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326 - -State: Vermont - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Arkansas - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: California - Votes: 54 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Colorado - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - -State: Illinois +State: Pennsylvania Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 678.900000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 1.917967 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398 + Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 423.690000 + Mean R: 48.275862 + Std of mean R: 2.427658 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258 + Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 856.800000 + Mean R: 49.411765 + Std of mean R: 1.708049 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1959.000000 + Mean R: 49.928804 + Std of mean R: 1.129672 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463 + +State: Maine + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Massachusetts - Votes: 11 +State: Maryland + Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 526.000000 - Mean R: 32.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.033933 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001 - Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 525.000000 - Mean R: 36.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.094892 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.761558 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000099 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1051.000000 - Mean R: 33.998097 - Std of mean R: 1.461182 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.127848 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 State: Mississippi Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: New Mexico - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - -State: Oregon - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Alaska - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Florida - Votes: 30 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 935.250000 - Mean R: 54.022989 - Std of mean R: 1.629656 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629656 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.728014 - Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 861.000000 - Mean R: 56.097561 - Std of mean R: 1.691277 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.691277 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.818923 - Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 422.820000 - Mean R: 55.172414 - Std of mean R: 2.418555 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170 - Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1003.850000 - Mean R: 57.647059 - Std of mean R: 1.559538 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3222.000000 - Mean R: 55.856801 - Std of mean R: 0.874797 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874797 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.840602 - -State: Hawaii - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Texas - Votes: 40 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - State: Missouri Votes: 10 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Montana - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Wisconsin - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] +State: New Mexico + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 658.350000 - Mean R: 51.578947 - Std of mean R: 1.947713 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890 - Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 452.700000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.349983 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 253.500000 - Mean R: 46.666667 - Std of mean R: 3.133385 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 8.133385 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.340964 - Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 429.440000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.412786 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1793.000000 - Mean R: 50.108418 - Std of mean R: 1.180807 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.180807 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.506997 - -State: Alabama - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Idaho - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Maine - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Louisiana - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Maryland - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Michigan - Votes: 15 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 414.520000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.455160 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028 - Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 648.940000 - Mean R: 50.656455 - Std of mean R: 1.962593 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.962593 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.537558 - Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 628.140000 - Mean R: 49.425287 - Std of mean R: 1.994863 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.994863 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.467259 - Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 634.270000 - Mean R: 50.549451 - Std of mean R: 1.985211 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348 - Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 557.520000 - Mean R: 51.086957 - Std of mean R: 2.117079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2883.000000 - Mean R: 50.186413 - Std of mean R: 0.931204 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.931204 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512536 - -State: New Hampshire - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 630.122000 - Mean R: 50.068399 - Std of mean R: 1.991853 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903 - Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 468.000000 - Mean R: 46.153846 - Std of mean R: 2.304403 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252 - Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1140.000000 - Mean R: 48.000000 - Std of mean R: 1.479687 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 2238.000000 - Mean R: 48.196300 - Std of mean R: 1.056227 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918 State: North Dakota Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Indiana - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - -State: Iowa - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: Kentucky +State: Oregon Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Washington - Votes: 12 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 306.280000 - Mean R: 44.736842 - Std of mean R: 2.841131 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491 - Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 578.100000 - Mean R: 41.489362 - Std of mean R: 2.049200 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 884.000000 - Mean R: 42.614035 - Std of mean R: 1.663233 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275 - -State: West Virginia - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 385.120000 - Mean R: 66.265060 - Std of mean R: 2.409263 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.075930 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999967 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 385.000000 - Mean R: 66.265060 - Std of mean R: 2.409639 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.076305 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999967 - -State: Pennsylvania - Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 856.800000 - Mean R: 49.411765 - Std of mean R: 1.708049 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.708049 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.465061 - Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 678.900000 - Mean R: 51.612903 - Std of mean R: 1.917967 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176 - Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 423.690000 - Mean R: 48.275862 - Std of mean R: 2.427658 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.071195627210514 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1959.000000 - Mean R: 49.928804 - Std of mean R: 1.129672 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.129672 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.495366 - -State: South Carolina - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: South Dakota Votes: 3 @@ -439,8 +80,8 @@ State: South Dakota Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 N republican wins: 6 => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 407.000000 Mean R: 61.425061 @@ -448,66 +89,319 @@ State: South Dakota Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 N republican wins: 6 => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855 -State: North Carolina - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 659.650000 - Mean R: 51.898734 - Std of mean R: 1.945359 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720 - Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1212.120000 - Mean R: 52.747253 - Std of mean R: 1.433972 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.433972 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665307 - Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 534.890000 - Mean R: 53.932584 - Std of mean R: 2.155214 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707 - Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 456.000000 - Mean R: 57.894737 - Std of mean R: 2.312093 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.312093 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.859858 - Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 410.640000 - Mean R: 51.724138 - Std of mean R: 2.465932 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3273.000000 - Mean R: 53.358690 - Std of mean R: 0.871997 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.871997 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.716334 - -State: Oklahoma - Votes: 7 +State: Texas + Votes: 40 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 +State: Arkansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Connecticut + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Montana + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Delaware + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: District of Columbia + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Indiana + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + State: Tennessee Votes: 11 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 +State: Ohio + Votes: 17 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1011.930000 + Mean R: 53.932584 + Std of mean R: 1.566922 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036 + Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 705.760000 + Mean R: 54.545455 + Std of mean R: 1.874301 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1717.000000 + Mean R: 54.184399 + Std of mean R: 1.202427 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393 + +State: Arizona + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 499.989000 + Mean R: 52.131547 + Std of mean R: 2.234060 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794 + Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1002.120000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 1.577674 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264 + Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 792.370000 + Mean R: 54.430380 + Std of mean R: 1.769271 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735 + Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 411.600000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 2.461724 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739 + Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 469.030000 + Mean R: 50.561798 + Std of mean R: 2.308566 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480 + Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 952.650000 + Mean R: 52.873563 + Std of mean R: 1.617279 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 4127.000000 + Mean R: 52.651136 + Std of mean R: 0.777215 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537 + +State: Florida + Votes: 30 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 861.000000 + Mean R: 56.097561 + Std of mean R: 1.691277 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002 + Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1003.850000 + Mean R: 57.647059 + Std of mean R: 1.559538 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509 + Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 935.250000 + Mean R: 54.022989 + Std of mean R: 1.629656 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574 + Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 422.820000 + Mean R: 55.172414 + Std of mean R: 2.418555 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.14319933476474 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3222.000000 + Mean R: 55.856801 + Std of mean R: 0.874797 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211 + +State: Louisiana + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Michigan + Votes: 15 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 634.270000 + Mean R: 50.549451 + Std of mean R: 1.985211 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572 + Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 648.940000 + Mean R: 50.656455 + Std of mean R: 1.962593 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833 + Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 414.520000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.455160 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524 + Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 557.520000 + Mean R: 51.086957 + Std of mean R: 2.117079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518 + Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 628.140000 + Mean R: 49.425287 + Std of mean R: 1.994863 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2883.000000 + Mean R: 50.186413 + Std of mean R: 0.931204 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077 + +State: Nebraska + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Nevada + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 357.780000 + Mean R: 55.056180 + Std of mean R: 2.629844 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161 + Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 908.650000 + Mean R: 52.941176 + Std of mean R: 1.655842 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477 + Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 449.964000 + Mean R: 53.596288 + Std of mean R: 2.351012 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390 + Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 407.160000 + Mean R: 50.574713 + Std of mean R: 2.477757 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348 + Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.910000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.136859 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881 + Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 426.000000 + Mean R: 52.112676 + Std of mean R: 2.420344 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945 + Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 431.460000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.407131 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3527.000000 + Mean R: 52.305945 + Std of mean R: 0.841017 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082 + +State: New York + Votes: 28 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1012.350000 + Mean R: 44.705882 + Std of mean R: 1.562631 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767 + Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1000.000000 + Mean R: 44.800000 + Std of mean R: 1.572565 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2012.000000 + Mean R: 44.752652 + Std of mean R: 1.108539 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821 + State: Virginia Votes: 13 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] @@ -517,180 +411,82 @@ State: Virginia Mean R: 48.717949 Std of mean R: 2.122487 Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068 Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 918.810000 Mean R: 49.397590 Std of mean R: 1.649399 Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.649399 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.463907 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 1473.000000 Mean R: 49.141775 Std of mean R: 1.302581 Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.302581 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.445843 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712 -State: District of Columbia - Votes: 3 +State: Wisconsin + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 253.500000 + Mean R: 46.666667 + Std of mean R: 3.133385 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148 + Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 658.350000 + Mean R: 51.578947 + Std of mean R: 1.947713 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677 + Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 429.440000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.412786 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 452.700000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.349983 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1793.000000 + Mean R: 50.108418 + Std of mean R: 1.180807 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348 + +State: Alabama + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: California + Votes: 54 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Georgia - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 390.100000 - Mean R: 50.602410 - Std of mean R: 2.531340 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876 - Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 546.000000 - Mean R: 51.648352 - Std of mean R: 2.138639 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306 - Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 962.400000 - Mean R: 53.750000 - Std of mean R: 1.607190 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.607190 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714834 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1898.000000 - Mean R: 52.498815 - Std of mean R: 1.146249 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.146249 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.657834 - -State: Nevada - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 546.910000 - Mean R: 51.648352 - Std of mean R: 2.136859 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328 - Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 431.460000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.407131 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 407.160000 - Mean R: 50.574713 - Std of mean R: 2.477757 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631 - Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 449.964000 - Mean R: 53.596288 - Std of mean R: 2.351012 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658 - Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Sample size: 426.000000 - Mean R: 52.112676 - Std of mean R: 2.420344 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068 - Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 908.650000 - Mean R: 52.941176 - Std of mean R: 1.655842 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.655842 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.670717 - Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 357.780000 - Mean R: 55.056180 - Std of mean R: 2.629844 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3527.000000 - Mean R: 52.305945 - Std of mean R: 0.841017 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.841017 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.653499 - -State: Ohio - Votes: 17 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 705.760000 - Mean R: 54.545455 - Std of mean R: 1.874301 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.874301 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.745766 - Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1011.930000 - Mean R: 53.932584 - Std of mean R: 1.566922 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.566922 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725363 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1717.000000 - Mean R: 54.184399 - Std of mean R: 1.202427 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.202427 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.750047 - -State: Rhode Island +State: Hawaii Votes: 4 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 538.000000 - Mean R: 40.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.112100 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 538.000000 - Mean R: 40.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.112100 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068 -State: Wyoming - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Kansas +State: Iowa Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 State: Minnesota Votes: 10 @@ -703,8 +499,8 @@ State: Minnesota Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.580939 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.261121 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 680.000000 Mean R: 47.708578 @@ -712,13 +508,253 @@ State: Minnesota Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787 N republican wins: 0 => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.582065 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.261186 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303 -State: Nebraska - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 +State: Washington + Votes: 12 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 578.100000 + Mean R: 41.489362 + Std of mean R: 2.049200 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934 + Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 306.280000 + Mean R: 44.736842 + Std of mean R: 2.841131 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 884.000000 + Mean R: 42.614035 + Std of mean R: 1.663233 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854 + +State: Wyoming + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Colorado + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + +State: Georgia + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 962.400000 + Mean R: 53.750000 + Std of mean R: 1.607190 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183 + Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 390.100000 + Mean R: 50.602410 + Std of mean R: 2.531340 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744 + Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.000000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.138639 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1898.000000 + Mean R: 52.498815 + Std of mean R: 1.146249 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361 + +State: New Hampshire + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 630.122000 + Mean R: 50.068399 + Std of mean R: 1.991853 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554 + Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 468.000000 + Mean R: 46.153846 + Std of mean R: 2.304403 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906 + Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1140.000000 + Mean R: 48.000000 + Std of mean R: 1.479687 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2238.000000 + Mean R: 48.196300 + Std of mean R: 1.056227 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648 + +State: Oklahoma + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Rhode Island + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852 + +State: South Carolina + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Idaho + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Kansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Massachusetts + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 525.000000 + Mean R: 36.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.094892 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022 + Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 526.000000 + Mean R: 32.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.033933 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1051.000000 + Mean R: 33.998097 + Std of mean R: 1.461182 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000 + +State: North Carolina + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 456.000000 + Mean R: 57.894737 + Std of mean R: 2.312093 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484 + Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 534.890000 + Mean R: 53.932584 + Std of mean R: 2.155214 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557 + Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 410.640000 + Mean R: 51.724138 + Std of mean R: 2.465932 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131 + Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 659.650000 + Mean R: 51.898734 + Std of mean R: 1.945359 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275 + Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1212.120000 + Mean R: 52.747253 + Std of mean R: 1.433972 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3273.000000 + Mean R: 53.358690 + Std of mean R: 0.871997 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710 + +State: Alaska + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Illinois + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Kentucky + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: New Jersey Votes: 14 @@ -730,70 +766,34 @@ State: Utah History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Arizona - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 499.989000 - Mean R: 52.131547 - Std of mean R: 2.234060 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871 - Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1002.120000 - Mean R: 52.380952 - Std of mean R: 1.577674 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315 - Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 792.370000 - Mean R: 54.430380 - Std of mean R: 1.769271 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600 - Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 952.650000 - Mean R: 52.873563 - Std of mean R: 1.617279 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.617279 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.667947 - Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 469.030000 - Mean R: 50.561798 - Std of mean R: 2.308566 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636 - Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} - Sample size: 411.600000 - Mean R: 52.380952 - Std of mean R: 2.461724 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.348864117309176 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 4127.000000 - Mean R: 52.651136 - Std of mean R: 0.777215 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.777215 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676845 - -State: Connecticut - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Delaware +State: Vermont Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: West Virginia + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 385.120000 + Mean R: 66.265060 + Std of mean R: 2.409263 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 385.000000 + Mean R: 66.265060 + Std of mean R: 2.409639 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993 + [ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) [ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) [ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) @@ -855,152 +855,152 @@ State: Delaware [ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%) [ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%) [ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%) -[ 192, 193): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 193, 194): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%) +[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%) [ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 195, 196): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 196, 197): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 197, 198): ██ 0.04% (0%) -[ 198, 199): ███ 0.05% (0%) -[ 199, 200): ███ 0.05% (0%) -[ 200, 201): ██ 0.04% (0%) -[ 201, 202): ██ 0.04% (0%) -[ 202, 203): ███ 0.05% (1%) -[ 203, 204): ████ 0.07% (1%) -[ 204, 205): ████ 0.07% (1%) -[ 205, 206): ████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 206, 207): ████ 0.07% (1%) -[ 207, 208): ████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 208, 209): ██████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 209, 210): ██████ 0.11% (1%) -[ 210, 211): ███████ 0.12% (1%) -[ 211, 212): ██████ 0.11% (1%) -[ 212, 213): ████████ 0.13% (1%) -[ 213, 214): ████████ 0.15% (2%) -[ 214, 215): ██████████ 0.17% (2%) -[ 215, 216): ███████████ 0.19% (2%) -[ 216, 217): ███████████ 0.18% (2%) -[ 217, 218): ███████████ 0.19% (2%) -[ 218, 219): █████████████ 0.23% (3%) -[ 219, 220): ██████████████ 0.24% (3%) -[ 220, 221): ██████████████ 0.24% (3%) -[ 221, 222): ███████████████ 0.25% (3%) -[ 222, 223): █████████████████ 0.29% (4%) -[ 223, 224): ██████████████████ 0.31% (4%) -[ 224, 225): ██████████████████ 0.31% (4%) -[ 225, 226): ███████████████████ 0.32% (5%) -[ 226, 227): ███████████████████ 0.32% (5%) -[ 227, 228): █████████████████████ 0.35% (5%) -[ 228, 229): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (6%) -[ 229, 230): ████████████████████████████ 0.47% (6%) -[ 230, 231): ██████████████████████████ 0.44% (7%) -[ 231, 232): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (7%) -[ 232, 233): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (7%) -[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%) -[ 234, 235): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (9%) -[ 235, 236): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (9%) -[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%) -[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%) -[ 238, 239): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (11%) -[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (12%) -[ 240, 241): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (13%) -[ 241, 242): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (13%) -[ 242, 243): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (14%) -[ 243, 244): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (15%) -[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (16%) -[ 245, 246): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (17%) -[ 246, 247): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.92% (18%) -[ 247, 248): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (19%) -[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (20%) -[ 249, 250): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (21%) -[ 250, 251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (22%) -[ 251, 252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (23%) -[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (24%) -[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (25%) -[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (26%) -[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (28%) -[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (29%) -[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (30%) -[ 258, 259): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (31%) -[ 259, 260): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (33%) -[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (34%) -[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (36%) -[ 262, 263): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (37%) -[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (39%) -[ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (40%) -[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (42%) -[ 266, 267): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (43%) -[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (45%) -[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (46%) -[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (48%) -[ 270, 271): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (49%) -[ 271, 272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (51%) -[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (53%) -[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (54%) -[ 274, 275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (56%) -[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (57%) -[ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (59%) -[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (60%) -[ 278, 279): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (62%) -[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (63%) -[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (65%) -[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (67%) -[ 282, 283): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (68%) -[ 283, 284): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (69%) -[ 284, 285): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (71%) -[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (72%) -[ 286, 287): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (74%) -[ 287, 288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (75%) -[ 288, 289): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (76%) -[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (77%) -[ 290, 291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (79%) -[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (80%) -[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (81%) -[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (82%) -[ 294, 295): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (83%) -[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (84%) -[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (85%) -[ 297, 298): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (86%) -[ 298, 299): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (87%) -[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (88%) -[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (89%) -[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (90%) -[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (90%) -[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (91%) -[ 304, 305): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (92%) -[ 305, 306): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (93%) -[ 306, 307): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (93%) -[ 307, 308): ████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (94%) -[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.51% (94%) -[ 309, 310): ███████████████████████████████ 0.53% (95%) -[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████████ 0.51% (95%) -[ 311, 312): ██████████████████████ 0.38% (96%) -[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (96%) -[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.40% (96%) -[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.38% (97%) -[ 315, 316): ██████████████████ 0.30% (97%) -[ 316, 317): ████████████████ 0.27% (97%) -[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.22% (98%) -[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.25% (98%) -[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.29% (98%) -[ 320, 321): ████████████ 0.21% (98%) +[ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%) +[ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%) +[ 197, 198): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%) +[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 201, 202): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 202, 203): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 203, 204): ███ 0.05% (0%) +[ 204, 205): ███ 0.06% (0%) +[ 205, 206): ███ 0.06% (1%) +[ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%) +[ 207, 208): ███ 0.05% (1%) +[ 208, 209): ████ 0.07% (1%) +[ 209, 210): █████ 0.09% (1%) +[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%) +[ 211, 212): ████ 0.08% (1%) +[ 212, 213): █████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 213, 214): ██████ 0.11% (1%) +[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.12% (1%) +[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.14% (1%) +[ 216, 217): ███████ 0.14% (2%) +[ 217, 218): ███████ 0.14% (2%) +[ 218, 219): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 219, 220): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 220, 221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 221, 222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%) +[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.22% (3%) +[ 223, 224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%) +[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.26% (3%) +[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.28% (3%) +[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.26% (4%) +[ 227, 228): ███████████████ 0.28% (4%) +[ 228, 229): ████████████████████ 0.36% (4%) +[ 229, 230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%) +[ 230, 231): █████████████████████ 0.37% (5%) +[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%) +[ 232, 233): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (6%) +[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████ 0.45% (6%) +[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%) +[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%) +[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (8%) +[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%) +[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (9%) +[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%) +[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (10%) +[ 241, 242): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (11%) +[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (12%) +[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (12%) +[ 244, 245): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (13%) +[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%) +[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (15%) +[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%) +[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (17%) +[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (18%) +[ 250, 251): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (19%) +[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%) +[ 252, 253): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (21%) +[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (22%) +[ 254, 255): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%) +[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (24%) +[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (26%) +[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (27%) +[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (28%) +[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%) +[ 260, 261): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (31%) +[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%) +[ 262, 263): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (34%) +[ 263, 264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (35%) +[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (36%) +[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (38%) +[ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (40%) +[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (41%) +[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (43%) +[ 269, 270): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (44%) +[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (46%) +[ 271, 272): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%) +[ 272, 273): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (49%) +[ 273, 274): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (51%) +[ 274, 275): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (52%) +[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.75% (54%) +[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%) +[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (57%) +[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (59%) +[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%) +[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (62%) +[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (64%) +[ 282, 283): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (65%) +[ 283, 284): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (67%) +[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (68%) +[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (70%) +[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (71%) +[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (73%) +[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%) +[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (75%) +[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (77%) +[ 291, 292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (78%) +[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%) +[ 293, 294): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (81%) +[ 294, 295): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (82%) +[ 295, 296): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%) +[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (84%) +[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (85%) +[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (86%) +[ 299, 300): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%) +[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (88%) +[ 301, 302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (89%) +[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (90%) +[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (90%) +[ 304, 305): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (91%) +[ 305, 306): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%) +[ 306, 307): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (93%) +[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%) +[ 308, 309): ████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%) +[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%) +[ 310, 311): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (95%) +[ 311, 312): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (95%) +[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████ 0.40% (96%) +[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (96%) +[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.42% (97%) +[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.34% (97%) +[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.31% (97%) +[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.24% (98%) +[ 318, 319): ██████████████ 0.26% (98%) +[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.31% (98%) +[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.24% (98%) [ 321, 322): ███████ 0.13% (98%) [ 322, 323): ████████ 0.15% (99%) -[ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.18% (99%) -[ 324, 325): █████████ 0.16% (99%) -[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.14% (99%) -[ 326, 327): █████ 0.09% (99%) -[ 327, 328): ████ 0.07% (99%) +[ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.19% (99%) +[ 324, 325): ██████████ 0.18% (99%) +[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.16% (99%) +[ 326, 327): █████ 0.10% (99%) +[ 327, 328): ███ 0.07% (99%) [ 328, 329): █████ 0.09% (99%) -[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.12% (99%) +[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.13% (100%) [ 330, 331): ████ 0.07% (100%) [ 331, 332): ██ 0.04% (100%) -[ 332, 333): ██ 0.04% (100%) +[ 332, 333): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 333, 334): ███ 0.05% (100%) -[ 334, 335): ██ 0.05% (100%) +[ 334, 335): ███ 0.06% (100%) [ 335, 336): ██ 0.05% (100%) [ 336, 337): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 337, 338): █ 0.02% (100%) +[ 337, 338): 0.01% (100%) [ 338, 339): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 339, 340): █ 0.03% (100%) [ 340, 341): █ 0.02% (100%) @@ -1010,9 +1010,9 @@ State: Delaware [ 344, 345): 0.01% (100%) [ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%) [ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%) -[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%) -[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%) -[ 349, 350): 0.00% (100%) +[ 347, 348): 0.00% (100%) +[ 348, 349): 0.00% (100%) +[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%) [ 350, 351): 0.00% (100%) [ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%) [ 352, 353): 0.00% (100%) @@ -1064,4 +1064,4 @@ State: Delaware [ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%) [ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%) -% republicans: 0.522445 +% republicans: 0.557333