From 895baeb1ad3e02ebef318753a230bba769198ce4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 22:30:32 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] save outputs, tweak num samples & output width --- main.go | 4 +- makefile | 3 + output.txt => out/output-2024-04-15.txt | 0 out/output-2024-06-02.txt | 1133 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 1138 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) rename output.txt => out/output-2024-04-15.txt (100%) create mode 100644 out/output-2024-06-02.txt diff --git a/main.go b/main.go index ee65334..6f12807 100644 --- a/main.go +++ b/main.go @@ -298,7 +298,7 @@ func printElectoralCollegeHistogram(samples []int) { cp := 0.0 for i, count := range histogram { - bar_length := (count * 75) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters + bar_length := (count * 100) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters. 75. p := float64(count) / float64(len(samples)) * 100 cp += p @@ -491,7 +491,7 @@ func main() { return } - n_sims := 100_000 + n_sims := 1_000_000 printStates(states) fmt.Printf("\n\n") diff --git a/makefile b/makefile index 0b0f0f3..aa55455 100644 --- a/makefile +++ b/makefile @@ -1,6 +1,9 @@ run: go run main.go +save: + go run main.go > "out/output-$$(date +"%Y-%m-%d").txt" + polls: mkdir -p data/polls rm data/polls/president_polls.csv diff --git a/output.txt b/out/output-2024-04-15.txt similarity index 100% rename from output.txt rename to out/output-2024-04-15.txt diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-02.txt b/out/output-2024-06-02.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ed68711 --- /dev/null +++ b/out/output-2024-06-02.txt @@ -0,0 +1,1133 @@ + + +State: Massachusetts + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 526.000000 + Mean R: 32.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.033933 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Trump:32] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 526.000000 + Mean R: 32.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.033933 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001 + +State: Mississippi + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Texas + Votes: 40 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Vermont + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Kansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Kentucky + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Michigan + Votes: 15 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 634.270000 + Mean R: 50.549451 + Std of mean R: 1.985211 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348 + Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 557.520000 + Mean R: 51.086957 + Std of mean R: 2.117079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692 + Poll: {PollId:86899 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:1 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 572.880000 + Mean R: 49.462366 + Std of mean R: 2.088878 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.398443 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.088878 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.469772 + Poll: {PollId:86906 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 417.600000 + Mean R: 53.750000 + Std of mean R: 2.439860 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.937850 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.439860 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.692884 + Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 414.520000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.455160 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028 + Poll: {PollId:86990 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 654.720000 + Mean R: 50.537634 + Std of mean R: 1.953966 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.608400 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.953966 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530813 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3251 PollResults:map[Biden:49.35952834221638 Trump:50.64047165778362] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3251.000000 + Mean R: 50.640472 + Std of mean R: 0.876851 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.767434 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.876851 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543392 + +State: New Hampshire + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1140.000000 + Mean R: 48.000000 + Std of mean R: 1.479687 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791 + Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 468.000000 + Mean R: 46.153846 + Std of mean R: 2.304403 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252 + Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 630.122000 + Mean R: 50.068399 + Std of mean R: 1.991853 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2238.000000 + Mean R: 48.196300 + Std of mean R: 1.056227 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918 + +State: North Carolina + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 659.650000 + Mean R: 51.898734 + Std of mean R: 1.945359 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720 + Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 534.890000 + Mean R: 53.932584 + Std of mean R: 2.155214 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707 + Poll: {PollId:86992 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Harris:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 647.680000 + Mean R: 54.347826 + Std of mean R: 1.957229 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.986839 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.957229 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.733994 + Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 410.640000 + Mean R: 51.724138 + Std of mean R: 2.465932 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317 + Poll: {PollId:87012 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 861.720000 + Mean R: 51.162791 + Std of mean R: 1.702823 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.752653 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.702823 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568862 + Poll: {PollId:86883 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:42.6] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 484.200000 + Mean R: 52.788104 + Std of mean R: 2.268722 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.890451 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.268722 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649353 + Poll: {PollId:86907 SampleSize:553 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 447.930000 + Mean R: 54.320988 + Std of mean R: 2.353624 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.966813 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.353624 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.721600 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4046 PollResults:map[Biden:47.24035080349221 Trump:52.75964919650779] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 4046.000000 + Mean R: 52.759649 + Std of mean R: 0.784864 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999781 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.784864 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683335 + +State: North Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Wisconsin + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:86902 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:0 Stein:0 Trump:47 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 571.020000 + Mean R: 50.537634 + Std of mean R: 2.092277 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.601396 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.092277 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530213 + Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 429.440000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.412786 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Poll: {PollId:86879 SampleSize:1457 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Stein:4 Trump:39 West:1] Date:2024-05-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1151.030000 + Mean R: 49.367089 + Std of mean R: 1.473642 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.333784 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.473642 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461058 + Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 658.350000 + Mean R: 51.578947 + Std of mean R: 1.947713 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890 + Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 452.700000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.349983 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3262 PollResults:map[Biden:49.810577035070835 Trump:50.18942296492916] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3262.000000 + Mean R: 50.189423 + Std of mean R: 0.875437 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.585652 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875437 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512860 + +State: Arizona + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:86987 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:51 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 755.250000 + Mean R: 53.684211 + Std of mean R: 1.814439 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.978847 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.814439 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705625 + Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 792.370000 + Mean R: 54.430380 + Std of mean R: 1.769271 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600 + Poll: {PollId:86903 SampleSize:529 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 454.940000 + Mean R: 51.162791 + Std of mean R: 2.343557 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.690111 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.343557 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.562906 + Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 469.030000 + Mean R: 50.561798 + Std of mean R: 2.308566 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636 + Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1002.120000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 1.577674 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315 + Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 411.600000 + Mean R: 52.380952 + Std of mean R: 2.461724 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170 + Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 499.989000 + Mean R: 52.131547 + Std of mean R: 2.234060 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871 + Poll: {PollId:86897 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:1 Stein:2 Trump:49 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 575.920000 + Mean R: 53.260870 + Std of mean R: 2.079042 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.941612 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.079042 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677471 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4961 PollResults:map[Biden:47.30000832456701 Trump:52.699991675433] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 4961.000000 + Mean R: 52.699992 + Std of mean R: 0.708845 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999930 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708845 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.681875 + +State: Iowa + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Minnesota + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86948 SampleSize:625 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 537.500000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.156072 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.294837 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.822739 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380496 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:537 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 537.000000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.157076 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.294923 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.823742 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380527 + +State: New Jersey + Votes: 14 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Pennsylvania + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:86901 SampleSize:1023 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Mapstead:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 951.390000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 1.620185 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.840255 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.620185 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596243 + Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 678.900000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 1.917967 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176 + Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 423.690000 + Mean R: 48.275862 + Std of mean R: 2.427658 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221 + Poll: {PollId:86908 SampleSize:509 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 427.560000 + Mean R: 51.190476 + Std of mean R: 2.417399 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.688803 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.417399 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.563756 + Poll: {PollId:86993 SampleSize:812 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:43 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:2] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 779.520000 + Mean R: 52.083333 + Std of mean R: 1.789283 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.877857 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.789283 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.620524 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3261 PollResults:map[Biden:48.76359220621516 Trump:51.23640779378484] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3261.000000 + Mean R: 51.236408 + Std of mean R: 0.875310 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.921104 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875310 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.583338 + +State: Rhode Island + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 538.000000 + Mean R: 40.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.112100 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068 + +State: Tennessee + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86998 SampleSize:501 PollResults:map[Biden:29 Kennedy:8 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 380.760000 + Mean R: 61.842105 + Std of mean R: 2.489480 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.156147 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997809 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:380 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1578947368421 Trump:61.8421052631579] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 380.000000 + Mean R: 61.842105 + Std of mean R: 2.491968 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.158635 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997797 + +State: Wyoming + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Delaware + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Illinois + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Colorado + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + +State: District of Columbia + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Nevada + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 426.000000 + Mean R: 52.112676 + Std of mean R: 2.420344 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068 + Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 449.964000 + Mean R: 53.596288 + Std of mean R: 2.351012 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658 + Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 407.160000 + Mean R: 50.574713 + Std of mean R: 2.477757 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631 + Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 431.460000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.407131 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 357.780000 + Mean R: 55.056180 + Std of mean R: 2.629844 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234 + Poll: {PollId:86900 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:2 Stein:1 Trump:51 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.460000 + Mean R: 57.303371 + Std of mean R: 2.115961 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999721 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115961 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.847634 + Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.910000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.136859 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3165 PollResults:map[Biden:47.01374152092375 Trump:52.98625847907625] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3165.000000 + Mean R: 52.986258 + Std of mean R: 0.887171 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999619 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.887171 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.694010 + +State: South Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 407.000000 + Mean R: 61.425061 + Std of mean R: 2.412838 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 407.000000 + Mean R: 61.425061 + Std of mean R: 2.412838 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450 + +State: Arkansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: California + Votes: 54 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: New Mexico + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + +State: Utah + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Georgia + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:86989 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 739.350000 + Mean R: 52.688172 + Std of mean R: 1.836185 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.928403 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.836185 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652924 + Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 390.100000 + Mean R: 50.602410 + Std of mean R: 2.531340 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876 + Poll: {PollId:86898 SampleSize:604 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:2 Stein:0 Trump:50 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 549.640000 + Mean R: 54.945055 + Std of mean R: 2.122249 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.990100 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122249 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.756256 + Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 546.000000 + Mean R: 51.648352 + Std of mean R: 2.138639 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306 + Poll: {PollId:86905 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 393.660000 + Mean R: 53.086420 + Std of mean R: 2.515245 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.890105 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.515245 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659349 + Poll: {PollId:86896 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:13 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 444.000000 + Mean R: 55.405405 + Std of mean R: 2.358988 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.989030 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.358988 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768687 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3062 PollResults:map[Biden:46.91274181699453 Trump:53.08725818300547] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3062.000000 + Mean R: 53.087258 + Std of mean R: 0.901858 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999691 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.901858 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699547 + +State: Montana + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Virginia + Votes: 13 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 554.580000 + Mean R: 48.717949 + Std of mean R: 2.122487 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:554 PollResults:map[Biden:51.282051282051285 Trump:48.717948717948715] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 554.000000 + Mean R: 48.717949 + Std of mean R: 2.123598 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.273016 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123598 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428587 + +State: Florida + Votes: 30 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:86889 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:10 Trump:46] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 505.470000 + Mean R: 55.421687 + Std of mean R: 2.210823 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.992903 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.210823 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.773939 + Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1003.850000 + Mean R: 57.647059 + Std of mean R: 1.559538 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151 + Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 422.820000 + Mean R: 55.172414 + Std of mean R: 2.418555 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170 + Poll: {PollId:86904 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 498.100000 + Mean R: 55.294118 + Std of mean R: 2.227735 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.991260 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.227735 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768060 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2430 PollResults:map[Biden:43.72860293633551 Trump:56.27139706366449] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2430.000000 + Mean R: 56.271397 + Std of mean R: 1.006291 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.006291 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.851789 + +State: Maine + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: New York + Votes: 28 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1000.000000 + Mean R: 44.800000 + Std of mean R: 1.572565 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212 + Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1012.350000 + Mean R: 44.705882 + Std of mean R: 1.562631 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 2012.000000 + Mean R: 44.752652 + Std of mean R: 1.108539 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326 + +State: Oklahoma + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Oregon + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Washington + Votes: 12 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 578.100000 + Mean R: 41.489362 + Std of mean R: 2.049200 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000 + Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 306.280000 + Mean R: 44.736842 + Std of mean R: 2.841131 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 884.000000 + Mean R: 42.614035 + Std of mean R: 1.663233 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275 + +State: West Virginia + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Connecticut + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Maryland + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86882 SampleSize:1115 PollResults:map[Biden:49.9 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:1 Trump:32.5 West:3] Date:2024-05-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 918.760000 + Mean R: 39.441748 + Std of mean R: 1.612366 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.279033 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000641 + Poll: {PollId:86881 SampleSize:719 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:32] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM} + Sample size: 661.480000 + Mean R: 34.782609 + Std of mean R: 1.851844 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.518511 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000008 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1580 PollResults:map[Biden:62.50854300612565 Trump:37.49145699387435] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1580.000000 + Mean R: 37.491457 + Std of mean R: 1.217888 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.884555 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000007 + +State: Hawaii + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Idaho + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Indiana + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + +State: Louisiana + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Missouri + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Nebraska + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Alabama + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Alaska + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Ohio + Votes: 17 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + +State: South Carolina + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) +[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) +[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) +[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%) +[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%) +[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%) +[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%) +[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%) +[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%) +[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%) +[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%) +[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%) +[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%) +[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%) +[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%) +[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%) +[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%) +[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%) +[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%) +[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%) +[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%) +[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%) +[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%) +[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%) +[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%) +[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%) +[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%) +[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%) +[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%) +[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%) +[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%) +[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%) +[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%) +[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%) +[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%) +[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%) +[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%) +[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%) +[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%) +[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%) +[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%) +[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%) +[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%) +[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%) +[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%) +[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%) +[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%) +[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%) +[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%) +[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%) +[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%) +[ 182, 183): 0.01% (0%) +[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%) +[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%) +[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%) +[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%) +[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) +[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%) +[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%) +[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%) +[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%) +[ 192, 193): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%) +[ 196, 197): █ 0.02% (0%) +[ 197, 198): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%) +[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%) +[ 200, 201): ██ 0.03% (0%) +[ 201, 202): ██ 0.04% (0%) +[ 202, 203): ██ 0.05% (0%) +[ 203, 204): ███ 0.06% (1%) +[ 204, 205): ███ 0.07% (1%) +[ 205, 206): ████ 0.07% (1%) +[ 206, 207): ███ 0.06% (1%) +[ 207, 208): ████ 0.07% (1%) +[ 208, 209): █████ 0.09% (1%) +[ 209, 210): ██████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%) +[ 211, 212): ██████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 212, 213): ███████ 0.12% (1%) +[ 213, 214): ███████ 0.13% (1%) +[ 214, 215): ████████ 0.14% (2%) +[ 215, 216): █████████ 0.16% (2%) +[ 216, 217): █████████ 0.15% (2%) +[ 217, 218): ██████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 218, 219): ████████████ 0.20% (2%) +[ 219, 220): ████████████ 0.20% (2%) +[ 220, 221): ████████████ 0.20% (3%) +[ 221, 222): █████████████ 0.22% (3%) +[ 222, 223): ███████████████ 0.25% 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███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (23%) +[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (24%) +[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%) +[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (27%) +[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (28%) +[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (29%) +[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (30%) +[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (32%) +[ 261, 262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (33%) +[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (35%) +[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (36%) +[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (37%) +[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (39%) +[ 266, 267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (40%) +[ 267, 268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (42%) +[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (43%) +[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (45%) +[ 270, 271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (46%) +[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (48%) +[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (50%) +[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (51%) +[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (53%) +[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (54%) +[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (56%) +[ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (57%) +[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (59%) +[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (60%) +[ 280, 281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (62%) +[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%) +[ 282, 283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (65%) +[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (66%) +[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (68%) +[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (69%) +[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (71%) +[ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (72%) +[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (73%) +[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (75%) +[ 290, 291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (76%) +[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (78%) +[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%) +[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (80%) +[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (81%) +[ 295, 296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (82%) +[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.10% (83%) +[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (84%) +[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (85%) +[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%) +[ 300, 301): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (87%) +[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (88%) +[ 302, 303): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (89%) +[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%) +[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%) +[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (91%) +[ 306, 307): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%) +[ 307, 308): 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