NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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move poll filtering to loadStates function

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NunoSempere 2024-04-14 14:22:09 -04:00
parent 862b7f0c92
commit 693538cdca
1 changed files with 33 additions and 37 deletions
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70
main.go
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@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
defer polls_file.Close() defer polls_file.Close()
// Using a temporary map to group poll results by state and poll ID // Using a temporary map to group poll results by state and poll ID
tmp_polls := make(map[string]map[string]Poll) state_polls_map := make(map[string]map[string]Poll)
polls_reader := csv.NewReader(polls_file) polls_reader := csv.NewReader(polls_file)
_, err = polls_reader.Read() // Skip the header _, err = polls_reader.Read() // Skip the header
@ -142,11 +142,11 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
continue // If error, skip this record continue // If error, skip this record
} }
if _, exists := tmp_polls[state_name]; !exists { if _, exists := state_polls_map[state_name]; !exists {
tmp_polls[state_name] = make(map[string]Poll) state_polls_map[state_name] = make(map[string]Poll)
} }
poll, exists := tmp_polls[state_name][poll_id] poll, exists := state_polls_map[state_name][poll_id]
if !exists { if !exists {
poll = Poll{ poll = Poll{
PollId: poll_id, PollId: poll_id,
@ -157,24 +157,43 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
} }
} }
poll.PollResults[candidate_name] = percentage poll.PollResults[candidate_name] = percentage
tmp_polls[state_name][poll_id] = poll state_polls_map[state_name][poll_id] = poll
} }
// Add the aggregated poll data to the respective states // Add the aggregated poll data to the respective states
for state_name, polls := range tmp_polls { for state_name, polls := range state_polls_map {
var pollsSlice []Poll
var recent_polls []Poll
for _, poll := range polls { for _, poll := range polls {
pollsSlice = append(pollsSlice, poll) if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
} }
}
var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
has_biden := false
has_trump := false
for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
if candidate_name == "Biden" {
has_biden = true
} else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
has_trump = true
}
}
if has_biden && has_trump {
recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
}
}
if state, exists := states[state_name]; exists { if state, exists := states[state_name]; exists {
state.Polls = pollsSlice state.Polls = recent_biden_trump_polls
states[state_name] = state // Not redundant states[state_name] = state // Not redundant
} else { } else {
// fmt.Printf("Encountered new state: %s\n", state_name) // fmt.Printf("Encountered new state: %s\n", state_name)
/* /*
states[state_name] = State{ states[state_name] = State{
Name: state_name, Name: state_name,
Polls: pollsSlice, Polls: polls_slice,
} }
*/ */
} }
@ -245,7 +264,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
} }
default: default:
{ {
/* Just considering the base rate for the state */ /* Consider the base rate for the state */
p_baserate_republican := 0.0 p_baserate_republican := 0.0
for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory { for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
if party == "R" { if party == "R" {
@ -255,33 +274,10 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
p_baserate_republican = p_baserate_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)) p_baserate_republican = p_baserate_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
p_republican := p_baserate_republican // if no polls p_republican := p_baserate_republican // if no polls
/* Considering polls */ /* Consider polls */
var recent_polls []Poll
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
}
}
var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
has_biden := false
has_trump := false
for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
if candidate_name == "Biden" {
has_biden = true
} else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
has_trump = true
}
}
if has_biden && has_trump {
recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
}
}
num_biden_votes := 0.0 num_biden_votes := 0.0
num_trump_votes := 0.0 num_trump_votes := 0.0
for _, recent_biden_trump_poll := range recent_biden_trump_polls { for _, recent_biden_trump_poll := range state.Polls {
biden_share := 0.0 biden_share := 0.0
trump_share := 0.0 trump_share := 0.0
for candidate_name, candidate_percentage := range recent_biden_trump_poll.PollResults { for candidate_name, candidate_percentage := range recent_biden_trump_poll.PollResults {
@ -364,7 +360,7 @@ func main() {
return return
} }
n_sims := 100_000 n_sims := 10_000
p_republicans := 0.0 p_republicans := 0.0
for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ { for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ {