From 3c4d6ba372a7caf62446c486cabebb64f507944a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 21:46:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] factor out nominee names; rerun --- main.go | 30 +- output | 915 ----------------------------------- output.txt | 1345 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------ 3 files changed, 751 insertions(+), 1539 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 output diff --git a/main.go b/main.go index 569cd4e..8be9d27 100644 --- a/main.go +++ b/main.go @@ -34,6 +34,8 @@ type Poll struct { /* Globals */ var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(100), uint64(2224))) +var dem_nominee_name = "Biden" +var rep_nominee_name = "Trump" /* Sampling helper functions */ func getNormalCDF(x float64, mean float64, std float64) float64 { @@ -51,8 +53,8 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f } func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 { - biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] - trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] + biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] + trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] if !biden_exists || !trump_exists { panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump") } @@ -86,8 +88,8 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett } // Get the uncertainty from the poll - biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] - trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] + biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] + trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] if !biden_exists || !trump_exists { panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump") } @@ -160,8 +162,8 @@ func printStates(states []State) { num_biden_votes := 0.0 num_trump_votes := 0.0 for _, poll := range state.Polls { - biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] - trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] + biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] + trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] if !biden_exists || !trump_exists { panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump") } @@ -171,8 +173,8 @@ func printStates(states []State) { aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 { var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)} - aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size - aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size + aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size + aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll) _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true) @@ -230,8 +232,8 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { num_biden_votes := 0.0 num_trump_votes := 0.0 for _, poll := range state.Polls { - biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] - trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] + biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] + trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] if !biden_exists || !trump_exists { panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump") } @@ -242,8 +244,8 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 { var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)} - aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size - aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size + aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size + aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false) // p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false) @@ -449,9 +451,9 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) { has_biden := false has_trump := false for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults { - if candidate_name == "Biden" { + if candidate_name == dem_nominee_name { has_biden = true - } else if candidate_name == "Trump" { + } else if candidate_name == rep_nominee_name { has_trump = true } } diff --git a/output b/output deleted file mode 100644 index 881ece7..0000000 --- a/output +++ /dev/null @@ -1,915 +0,0 @@ - - -State: Colorado - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 556.160000 - Mean R: 44.318182 - Std of mean R: 2.106434 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 556.000000 - Mean R: 44.318182 - Std of mean R: 2.106737 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001 - -State: Florida - Votes: 30 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 743.750000 - Mean R: 54.117647 - Std of mean R: 1.827169 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788 - Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 838.000000 - Mean R: 58.711217 - Std of mean R: 1.700805 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1581.000000 - Mean R: 56.551288 - Std of mean R: 1.246648 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858 - -State: New Hampshire - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - -State: Pennsylvania - Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 882.960000 - Mean R: 51.282051 - Std of mean R: 1.682119 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075 - Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 353.420000 - Mean R: 48.780488 - Std of mean R: 2.658859 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744 - Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 546.000000 - Mean R: 51.648352 - Std of mean R: 2.138639 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306 - Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 680.000000 - Mean R: 48.235294 - Std of mean R: 1.916218 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302 - Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 658.750000 - Mean R: 51.764706 - Std of mean R: 1.946879 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3121.000000 - Mean R: 50.500940 - Std of mean R: 0.894955 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860 - -State: Alabama - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: California - Votes: 54 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 921.400000 - Mean R: 36.470588 - Std of mean R: 1.585750 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 921.000000 - Mean R: 36.470588 - Std of mean R: 1.586094 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016 - -State: Hawaii - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Indiana - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - -State: Iowa - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: Massachusetts - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 741.480000 - Mean R: 37.837838 - Std of mean R: 1.781052 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 741.000000 - Mean R: 37.837838 - Std of mean R: 1.781628 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210 - -State: Ohio - Votes: 17 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - -State: Virginia - Votes: 13 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - -State: Wisconsin - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 830.000000 - Mean R: 52.289157 - Std of mean R: 1.733705 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055 - Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.128141 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1382.000000 - Mean R: 51.374819 - Std of mean R: 1.344472 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777 - -State: Idaho - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Kentucky - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Louisiana - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Mississippi - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: New Mexico - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - -State: West Virginia - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Connecticut - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: New Jersey - Votes: 14 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 768.000000 - Mean R: 46.614583 - Std of mean R: 1.800079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 768.000000 - Mean R: 46.614583 - Std of mean R: 1.800079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398 - -State: North Carolina - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 493.800000 - Mean R: 52.612394 - Std of mean R: 2.246989 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756 - Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 883.920000 - Mean R: 51.724138 - Std of mean R: 1.680758 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826 - Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1106.790000 - Mean R: 51.898734 - Std of mean R: 1.501841 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868 - Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 526.440000 - Mean R: 52.439024 - Std of mean R: 2.176598 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018 - Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 53.260870 - Std of mean R: 2.123611 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3562.000000 - Mean R: 52.245190 - Std of mean R: 0.836922 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753 - -State: Utah - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Oregon - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Alaska - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Delaware - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Michigan - Votes: 15 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 852.000000 - Mean R: 52.347418 - Std of mean R: 1.711083 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749 - Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 558.000000 - Mean R: 51.612903 - Std of mean R: 2.115567 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661 - Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 811.780000 - Mean R: 54.054054 - Std of mean R: 1.749116 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973 - Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 492.800000 - Mean R: 51.250000 - Std of mean R: 2.251640 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429 - Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 587.052000 - Mean R: 51.932367 - Std of mean R: 2.062088 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3301.000000 - Mean R: 52.405295 - Std of mean R: 0.869249 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028 - -State: Minnesota - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.880000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.186007 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.000000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.187849 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452 - -State: Missouri - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: New York - Votes: 28 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: North Dakota - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Rhode Island - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Washington - Votes: 12 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Sample size: 510.000000 - Mean R: 43.529412 - Std of mean R: 2.195419 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 510.000000 - Mean R: 43.529412 - Std of mean R: 2.195419 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 - N republican wins: 0 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927 - -State: Georgia - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 646.000000 - Mean R: 51.764706 - Std of mean R: 1.965998 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994 - Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.000000 - Mean R: 50.574713 - Std of mean R: 2.188296 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1168.000000 - Mean R: 51.232877 - Std of mean R: 1.462570 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648 - -State: Oklahoma - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: South Carolina - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: South Dakota - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Wyoming - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Arizona - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 438.600000 - Mean R: 51.764706 - Std of mean R: 2.385970 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419 - Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Sample size: 420.000000 - Mean R: 52.857143 - Std of mean R: 2.435764 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601 - Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 377.250000 - Mean R: 52.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.572217 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158 - Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 534.000000 - Mean R: 52.808989 - Std of mean R: 2.160294 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1769.000000 - Mean R: 52.389186 - Std of mean R: 1.187435 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302 - -State: Arkansas - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Kansas - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Maryland - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Nebraska - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: Nevada - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 52.173913 - Std of mean R: 2.126129 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 52.173913 - Std of mean R: 2.126129 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841 - -State: Tennessee - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 711.020000 - Mean R: 65.753425 - Std of mean R: 1.779618 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 711.000000 - Mean R: 65.753425 - Std of mean R: 1.779643 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998 - -State: District of Columbia - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Illinois - Votes: 19 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Maine - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Montana - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Texas - Votes: 40 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 938.280000 - Mean R: 57.142857 - Std of mean R: 1.615572 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230 - Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 929.000000 - Mean R: 54.574812 - Std of mean R: 1.633566 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1867.000000 - Mean R: 55.865216 - Std of mean R: 1.149183 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - N republican wins: 6 - => Reducing additional uncertainty - Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849 - Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371 - -State: Vermont - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) -[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) -[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%) -[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%) -[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%) -[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%) -[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%) -[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%) -[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%) -[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%) -[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%) -[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%) -[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%) -[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%) -[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%) -[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%) -[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%) -[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%) -[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%) -[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%) -[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%) -[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%) -[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%) -[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%) -[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%) -[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%) -[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%) -[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%) -[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%) -[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%) -[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%) -[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%) -[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%) -[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%) -[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%) -[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%) -[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%) -[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%) -[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%) -[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%) -[ 171, 172): 0.01% (0%) -[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%) -[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%) -[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%) -[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%) -[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%) -[ 177, 178): 0.01% (0%) -[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%) -[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%) -[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%) -[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%) -[ 182, 183): 0.02% (0%) -[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%) -[ 184, 185): 0.01% (0%) -[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%) -[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%) -[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) -[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%) -[ 189, 190): 0.02% (0%) -[ 190, 191): 0.02% (0%) -[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%) -[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%) -[ 193, 194): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 194, 195): 0.01% (0%) -[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%) -[ 196, 197): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 197, 198): █ 0.04% (0%) -[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 199, 200): ██ 0.05% (0%) -[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%) -[ 201, 202): ██ 0.05% (0%) -[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (1%) -[ 203, 204): ███ 0.07% (1%) -[ 204, 205): ██ 0.05% (1%) -[ 205, 206): ██ 0.06% (1%) -[ 206, 207): ███ 0.07% (1%) -[ 207, 208): ███ 0.07% (1%) -[ 208, 209): ████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 209, 210): ████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 210, 211): ████ 0.09% (1%) -[ 211, 212): ████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 212, 213): █████ 0.11% (1%) -[ 213, 214): █████ 0.12% (1%) -[ 214, 215): ██████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 215, 216): █████ 0.12% (2%) -[ 216, 217): ██████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 217, 218): ██████ 0.15% (2%) -[ 218, 219): ████████ 0.19% (2%) -[ 219, 220): ████████ 0.18% (2%) -[ 220, 221): █████████ 0.20% (3%) -[ 221, 222): ████████ 0.18% (3%) -[ 222, 223): █████████ 0.21% (3%) -[ 223, 224): ██████████ 0.24% (3%) -[ 224, 225): ███████████ 0.26% (3%) -[ 225, 226): ███████████ 0.25% (4%) -[ 226, 227): ███████████ 0.26% (4%) -[ 227, 228): █████████████ 0.30% (4%) -[ 228, 229): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%) -[ 229, 230): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%) -[ 230, 231): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%) -[ 231, 232): ████████████████ 0.36% (6%) -[ 232, 233): █████████████████ 0.39% (6%) -[ 233, 234): ███████████████████ 0.42% (7%) -[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (7%) -[ 235, 236): █████████████████████ 0.47% (7%) -[ 236, 237): ████████████████████ 0.45% (8%) -[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (8%) -[ 238, 239): █████████████████████████ 0.57% (9%) -[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%) -[ 240, 241): █████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%) -[ 241, 242): █████████████████████████ 0.56% (11%) -[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (11%) -[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (12%) -[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (13%) -[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (14%) -[ 246, 247): █████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (14%) -[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (15%) -[ 248, 249): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%) -[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (17%) -[ 250, 251): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (18%) -[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (19%) -[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%) -[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%) -[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (22%) -[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (23%) -[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (24%) -[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%) -[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (26%) -[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (28%) -[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (29%) -[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (30%) -[ 262, 263): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (31%) -[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (33%) -[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (34%) -[ 265, 266): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (36%) -[ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (37%) -[ 267, 268): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (38%) -[ 268, 269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (40%) -[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (41%) -[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (43%) -[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (44%) -[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (46%) -[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (47%) -[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (49%) -[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (50%) -[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (52%) -[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (53%) -[ 278, 279): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (55%) -[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (56%) -[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (58%) -[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (60%) -[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (61%) -[ 283, 284): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (62%) -[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (64%) -[ 285, 286): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (65%) -[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (67%) -[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (68%) -[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (70%) -[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (71%) -[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (73%) -[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%) -[ 292, 293): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (75%) -[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (76%) -[ 294, 295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (78%) -[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (79%) -[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (80%) -[ 297, 298): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (81%) -[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (82%) -[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (83%) -[ 300, 301): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (84%) -[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (85%) -[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (86%) -[ 303, 304): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (87%) -[ 304, 305): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (88%) -[ 305, 306): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (89%) -[ 306, 307): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (90%) -[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%) -[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.66% (91%) -[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%) -[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████████ 0.68% (92%) -[ 311, 312): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (93%) -[ 312, 313): ████████████████████████ 0.53% (94%) -[ 313, 314): █████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%) -[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (95%) -[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.42% (95%) -[ 316, 317): █████████████████████ 0.48% (96%) -[ 317, 318): ███████████████████ 0.42% (96%) -[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.35% (96%) -[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%) -[ 320, 321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%) -[ 321, 322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%) -[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.27% (98%) -[ 323, 324): ████████████ 0.27% (98%) -[ 324, 325): ███████████ 0.25% (98%) -[ 325, 326): ██████████ 0.23% (98%) -[ 326, 327): ████████ 0.19% (99%) -[ 327, 328): ██████ 0.15% (99%) -[ 328, 329): █████ 0.12% (99%) -[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.17% (99%) -[ 330, 331): █████ 0.11% (99%) -[ 331, 332): ███ 0.08% (99%) -[ 332, 333): ███ 0.09% (99%) -[ 333, 334): █████ 0.12% (99%) -[ 334, 335): ████ 0.09% (99%) -[ 335, 336): ████ 0.10% (100%) -[ 336, 337): ███ 0.07% (100%) -[ 337, 338): ██ 0.05% (100%) -[ 338, 339): ██ 0.06% (100%) -[ 339, 340): ██ 0.05% (100%) -[ 340, 341): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 341, 342): 0.02% (100%) -[ 342, 343): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 343, 344): 0.02% (100%) -[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%) -[ 345, 346): 0.02% (100%) -[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%) -[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%) -[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%) -[ 349, 350): 0.02% (100%) -[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%) -[ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%) -[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%) -[ 353, 354): 0.01% (100%) -[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%) -[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%) -[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%) -[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%) -[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%) -[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%) -[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%) -[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%) -[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%) -[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%) -[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%) -[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%) -[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%) -[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%) -[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%) -[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%) -[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%) -[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%) -[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%) -[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%) -[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%) -[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%) -[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%) -[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%) -[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%) -[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%) -[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%) -[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%) -[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%) -[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%) -[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%) -[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%) -[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%) -[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%) -[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%) -[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%) -[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%) -[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%) -[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%) -[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%) -[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%) -[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%) -[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%) -[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%) -[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%) -[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%) - -% republicans: 0.589620 diff --git a/output.txt b/output.txt index f686672..ed35b0d 100644 --- a/output.txt +++ b/output.txt @@ -1,147 +1,225 @@ - - -State: Kansas - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Kentucky - Votes: 8 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Mississippi - Votes: 6 +State: Alaska + Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Oregon - Votes: 8 +State: Minnesota + Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.880000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.186007 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.000000 + Mean R: 48.837209 + Std of mean R: 2.187849 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452 -State: Alaska - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: District of Columbia - Votes: 3 +State: New Jersey + Votes: 14 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 768.000000 + Mean R: 46.614583 + Std of mean R: 1.800079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 768.000000 + Mean R: 46.614583 + Std of mean R: 1.800079 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398 -State: Idaho +State: New Mexico + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + +State: Rhode Island Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Indiana +State: Arizona Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 438.600000 + Mean R: 51.764706 + Std of mean R: 2.385970 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419 + Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 534.000000 + Mean R: 52.808989 + Std of mean R: 2.160294 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582 + Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 377.250000 + Mean R: 52.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.572217 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158 + Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} + Sample size: 420.000000 + Mean R: 52.857143 + Std of mean R: 2.435764 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1769.000000 + Mean R: 52.389186 + Std of mean R: 1.187435 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302 -State: South Carolina - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Utah - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Michigan - Votes: 15 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 852.000000 - Mean R: 52.347418 - Std of mean R: 1.711083 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951 - Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 811.780000 - Mean R: 54.054054 - Std of mean R: 1.749116 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769 - Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 587.052000 - Mean R: 51.932367 - Std of mean R: 2.062088 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645 - Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 558.000000 - Mean R: 51.612903 - Std of mean R: 2.115567 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089 - Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 492.800000 - Mean R: 51.250000 - Std of mean R: 2.251640 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604 - Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 539.220000 - Mean R: 51.162791 - Std of mean R: 2.152631 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3840.000000 - Mean R: 52.230859 - Std of mean R: 0.806068 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176 +State: Florida + Votes: 30 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 743.750000 + Mean R: 54.117647 + Std of mean R: 1.827169 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788 + Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 838.000000 + Mean R: 58.711217 + Std of mean R: 1.700805 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1581.000000 + Mean R: 56.551288 + Std of mean R: 1.246648 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858 -State: Nevada - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 52.173913 - Std of mean R: 2.126129 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 52.173913 - Std of mean R: 2.126129 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 +State: Maine + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 State: Pennsylvania Votes: 19 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 353.420000 - Mean R: 48.780488 - Std of mean R: 2.658859 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239 Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 546.000000 Mean R: 51.648352 Std of mean R: 2.138639 Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572 - Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 882.960000 - Mean R: 51.282051 - Std of mean R: 1.682119 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306 Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 680.000000 Mean R: 48.235294 Std of mean R: 1.916218 Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302 + Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 882.960000 + Mean R: 51.282051 + Std of mean R: 1.682119 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075 Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 658.750000 Mean R: 51.764706 Std of mean R: 1.946879 Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263 + Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 353.420000 + Mean R: 48.780488 + Std of mean R: 2.658859 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 3121.000000 Mean R: 50.500940 Std of mean R: 0.894955 Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860 -State: Arkansas - Votes: 6 +State: South Carolina + Votes: 9 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Wisconsin + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 830.000000 + Mean R: 52.289157 + Std of mean R: 1.733705 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055 + Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 50.000000 + Std of mean R: 2.128141 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1382.000000 + Mean R: 51.374819 + Std of mean R: 1.344472 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777 + +State: North Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Oregon + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Alabama + Votes: 9 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 @@ -154,61 +232,139 @@ State: California Mean R: 36.470588 Std of mean R: 1.585750 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 921.000000 Mean R: 36.470588 Std of mean R: 1.586094 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016 -State: Iowa - Votes: 6 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 +State: Georgia + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 + Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 522.000000 + Mean R: 50.574713 + Std of mean R: 2.188296 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862 + Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 646.000000 + Mean R: 51.764706 + Std of mean R: 1.965998 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1168.000000 + Mean R: 51.232877 + Std of mean R: 1.462570 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648 -State: Louisiana - Votes: 8 +State: Illinois + Votes: 19 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 + +State: Kansas + Votes: 6 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Arizona - Votes: 11 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] +State: North Carolina + Votes: 16 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 377.250000 - Mean R: 52.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.572217 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580 - Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP} - Sample size: 420.000000 - Mean R: 52.857143 - Std of mean R: 2.435764 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601 - Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 438.600000 - Mean R: 51.764706 - Std of mean R: 2.385970 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234 - Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 534.000000 - Mean R: 52.808989 - Std of mean R: 2.160294 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1769.000000 - Mean R: 52.389186 - Std of mean R: 1.187435 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893 + Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 883.920000 + Mean R: 51.724138 + Std of mean R: 1.680758 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826 + Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1106.790000 + Mean R: 51.898734 + Std of mean R: 1.501841 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868 + Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 493.800000 + Mean R: 52.612394 + Std of mean R: 2.246989 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756 + Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 526.440000 + Mean R: 52.439024 + Std of mean R: 2.176598 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018 + Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 53.260870 + Std of mean R: 2.123611 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3562.000000 + Mean R: 52.245190 + Std of mean R: 0.836922 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753 -State: North Dakota - Votes: 3 +State: Texas + Votes: 40 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 929.000000 + Mean R: 54.574812 + Std of mean R: 1.633566 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158 + Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 938.280000 + Mean R: 57.142857 + Std of mean R: 1.615572 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 1867.000000 + Mean R: 55.865216 + Std of mean R: 1.149183 + Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371 -State: Virginia - Votes: 13 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 +State: Utah + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Washington Votes: 12 @@ -219,71 +375,140 @@ State: Washington Mean R: 43.529412 Std of mean R: 2.195419 Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 510.000000 Mean R: 43.529412 Std of mean R: 2.195419 Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927 State: Wyoming Votes: 3 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Delaware - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Colorado + Votes: 10 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 556.160000 + Mean R: 44.318182 + Std of mean R: 2.106434 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 556.000000 + Mean R: 44.318182 + Std of mean R: 2.106737 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001 -State: Illinois - Votes: 19 +State: Connecticut + Votes: 7 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Iowa + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + State: Maryland Votes: 10 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Minnesota - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.880000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.186007 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.000000 - Mean R: 48.837209 - Std of mean R: 2.187849 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544 +State: Mississippi + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Virginia + Votes: 13 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 State: West Virginia Votes: 4 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: New Jersey - Votes: 14 +State: Delaware + Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 768.000000 - Mean R: 46.614583 - Std of mean R: 1.800079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 768.000000 - Mean R: 46.614583 - Std of mean R: 1.800079 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006 -State: Rhode Island - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Michigan + Votes: 15 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 + Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 492.800000 + Mean R: 51.250000 + Std of mean R: 2.251640 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429 + Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 558.000000 + Mean R: 51.612903 + Std of mean R: 2.115567 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661 + Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 811.780000 + Mean R: 54.054054 + Std of mean R: 1.749116 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973 + Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 852.000000 + Mean R: 52.347418 + Std of mean R: 1.711083 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749 + Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 587.052000 + Mean R: 51.932367 + Std of mean R: 2.062088 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 3301.000000 + Mean R: 52.405295 + Std of mean R: 0.869249 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028 + +State: Nebraska + Votes: 5 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 + +State: Ohio + Votes: 17 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 + +State: Oklahoma + Votes: 7 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Tennessee Votes: 11 @@ -294,76 +519,93 @@ State: Tennessee Mean R: 65.753425 Std of mean R: 1.779618 Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 711.000000 Mean R: 65.753425 Std of mean R: 1.779643 Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 + N republican wins: 6 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998 -State: Texas - Votes: 40 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 929.000000 - Mean R: 54.574812 - Std of mean R: 1.633566 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449 - Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 938.280000 - Mean R: 57.142857 - Std of mean R: 1.615572 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1867.000000 - Mean R: 55.865216 - Std of mean R: 1.149183 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 +State: District of Columbia + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Montana - Votes: 4 +State: Louisiana + Votes: 8 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: New Mexico - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] +State: Nevada + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 + Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 52.173913 + Std of mean R: 2.126129 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841 + Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} + Sample size: 552.000000 + Mean R: 52.173913 + Std of mean R: 2.126129 + Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722 + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841 + +State: New Hampshire + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 -State: New York - Votes: 28 +State: Hawaii + Votes: 4 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Vermont - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Idaho + Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Colorado - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333 - Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 556.160000 - Mean R: 44.318182 - Std of mean R: 2.106434 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 556.000000 - Mean R: 44.318182 - Std of mean R: 2.106737 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499 +State: Indiana + Votes: 11 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 -State: Hawaii +State: Montana Votes: 4 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: South Dakota + Votes: 3 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Vermont + Votes: 3 History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 -State: Maine - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 +State: Arkansas + Votes: 6 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 + +State: Kentucky + Votes: 8 + History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] + Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 State: Massachusetts Votes: 11 @@ -374,146 +616,29 @@ State: Massachusetts Mean R: 37.837838 Std of mean R: 1.781052 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210 Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} Sample size: 741.000000 Mean R: 37.837838 Std of mean R: 1.781628 Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Wisconsin - Votes: 10 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 50.000000 - Std of mean R: 2.128141 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000 - Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 830.000000 - Mean R: 52.289157 - Std of mean R: 1.733705 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1382.000000 - Mean R: 51.374819 - Std of mean R: 1.344472 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745 - -State: North Carolina - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 883.920000 - Mean R: 51.724138 - Std of mean R: 1.680758 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509 - Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1106.790000 - Mean R: 51.898734 - Std of mean R: 1.501841 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934 - Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 552.000000 - Mean R: 53.260870 - Std of mean R: 2.123611 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673 - Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 526.440000 - Mean R: 52.439024 - Std of mean R: 2.176598 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764 - Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 493.800000 - Mean R: 52.612394 - Std of mean R: 2.246989 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 3562.000000 - Mean R: 52.245190 - Std of mean R: 0.836922 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348 - -State: Ohio - Votes: 17 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - -State: Connecticut - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 - -State: Florida - Votes: 30 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667 - Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 838.000000 - Mean R: 58.711217 - Std of mean R: 1.700805 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 743.750000 - Mean R: 54.117647 - Std of mean R: 1.827169 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1581.000000 - Mean R: 56.551288 - Std of mean R: 1.246648 - Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Nebraska - Votes: 5 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000 - -State: New Hampshire - Votes: 4 - History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667 - -State: South Dakota - Votes: 3 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Alabama - Votes: 9 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 - -State: Georgia - Votes: 16 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D] - Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333 - Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 522.000000 - Mean R: 50.574713 - Std of mean R: 2.188296 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582 - Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 646.000000 - Mean R: 51.764706 - Std of mean R: 1.965998 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304 - Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:} - Sample size: 1168.000000 - Mean R: 51.232877 - Std of mean R: 1.462570 - Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373 + N republican wins: 0 + => Reducing additional uncertainty + Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295 + Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210 State: Missouri Votes: 10 History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 -State: Oklahoma - Votes: 7 - History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R] - Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000 +State: New York + Votes: 28 + History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D] + Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000 [ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%) [ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%) @@ -528,261 +653,261 @@ State: Oklahoma [ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%) [ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%) [ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%) -[ 144, 145): 0.01% (0%) +[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%) [ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%) [ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%) [ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%) [ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%) [ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%) -[ 150, 151): 0.01% (0%) -[ 151, 152): 0.01% (0%) -[ 152, 153): 0.01% (0%) -[ 153, 154): 0.01% (0%) -[ 154, 155): 0.01% (0%) -[ 155, 156): 0.01% (0%) -[ 156, 157): 0.01% (0%) -[ 157, 158): 0.01% (0%) -[ 158, 159): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 159, 160): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 160, 161): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 161, 162): █ 0.01% (0%) -[ 162, 163): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 163, 164): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 164, 165): █ 0.02% (0%) -[ 165, 166): ██ 0.03% (0%) -[ 166, 167): ██ 0.03% (0%) -[ 167, 168): ██ 0.03% (0%) -[ 168, 169): ███ 0.04% (0%) -[ 169, 170): ██ 0.04% (0%) -[ 170, 171): ███ 0.04% (0%) -[ 171, 172): ██ 0.04% (1%) -[ 172, 173): ███ 0.05% (1%) -[ 173, 174): ███ 0.04% (1%) -[ 174, 175): ████ 0.06% (1%) -[ 175, 176): ████ 0.06% (1%) -[ 176, 177): ████ 0.06% (1%) -[ 177, 178): █████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 178, 179): █████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 179, 180): ██████ 0.09% (1%) -[ 180, 181): ████ 0.06% (1%) -[ 181, 182): █████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 182, 183): ███████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 183, 184): ███████ 0.10% (1%) -[ 184, 185): ██████ 0.08% (1%) -[ 185, 186): ████████ 0.11% (2%) -[ 186, 187): █████████ 0.13% (2%) -[ 187, 188): ████████ 0.11% (2%) -[ 188, 189): ██████████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 189, 190): ██████████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 190, 191): ████████ 0.11% (2%) -[ 191, 192): ██████████ 0.14% (2%) -[ 192, 193): ███████████ 0.16% (3%) -[ 193, 194): ██████████████ 0.20% (3%) -[ 194, 195): ████████████ 0.18% (3%) -[ 195, 196): ████████████ 0.17% (3%) -[ 196, 197): ████████████ 0.17% (3%) -[ 197, 198): █████████████ 0.18% (3%) -[ 198, 199): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%) -[ 199, 200): ████████████████ 0.22% (4%) -[ 200, 201): ████████████████ 0.23% (4%) -[ 201, 202): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%) -[ 202, 203): ███████████████ 0.21% (5%) -[ 203, 204): ████████████████████ 0.28% (5%) -[ 204, 205): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%) -[ 205, 206): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%) -[ 206, 207): ███████████████████ 0.27% (6%) -[ 207, 208): █████████████████████ 0.29% (6%) -[ 208, 209): █████████████████████ 0.30% (6%) -[ 209, 210): ███████████████████████ 0.33% (7%) -[ 210, 211): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (7%) -[ 211, 212): █████████████████████████ 0.35% (7%) -[ 212, 213): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (8%) -[ 213, 214): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (8%) -[ 214, 215): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (8%) -[ 215, 216): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%) -[ 216, 217): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%) -[ 217, 218): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%) -[ 218, 219): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%) -[ 219, 220): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (11%) -[ 220, 221): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.52% (11%) -[ 221, 222): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (12%) -[ 222, 223): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (12%) -[ 223, 224): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%) -[ 224, 225): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%) -[ 225, 226): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (14%) -[ 226, 227): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (14%) -[ 227, 228): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (15%) -[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (16%) -[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (16%) -[ 230, 231): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%) -[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%) -[ 232, 233): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (18%) -[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (19%) -[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (19%) -[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (20%) -[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (21%) -[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (22%) -[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (22%) -[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (23%) -[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (24%) -[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (25%) -[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (25%) -[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (26%) -[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (27%) -[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (28%) -[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (29%) -[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (30%) -[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (30%) -[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (31%) -[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (32%) -[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (33%) -[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (34%) -[ 253, 254): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (35%) -[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (36%) -[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (37%) -[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (38%) -[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (39%) -[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (40%) -[ 259, 260): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (41%) -[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (42%) -[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (42%) -[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (43%) -[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (44%) -[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (45%) -[ 265, 266): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (46%) -[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (47%) -[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (48%) -[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (49%) -[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (50%) -[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (51%) -[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (52%) -[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (53%) -[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (54%) -[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (55%) -[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (56%) -[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (57%) -[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (58%) -[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (59%) -[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (60%) -[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (61%) -[ 281, 282): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (62%) -[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (63%) -[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (63%) -[ 284, 285): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (64%) -[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (65%) -[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (66%) -[ 287, 288): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (67%) -[ 288, 289): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (68%) -[ 289, 290): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (69%) -[ 290, 291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (70%) -[ 291, 292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (70%) -[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (71%) -[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (72%) -[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (73%) -[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (74%) -[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (74%) -[ 297, 298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (75%) -[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (76%) -[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (77%) -[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (77%) -[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (78%) -[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (79%) -[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (79%) -[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (80%) -[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (81%) -[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (81%) -[ 307, 308): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (82%) -[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (83%) -[ 309, 310): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (83%) -[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (84%) -[ 311, 312): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (84%) -[ 312, 313): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (85%) -[ 313, 314): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (85%) -[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (86%) -[ 315, 316): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (86%) -[ 316, 317): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%) -[ 317, 318): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%) -[ 318, 319): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (88%) -[ 319, 320): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (88%) -[ 320, 321): ██████████████████████████████ 0.42% (89%) -[ 321, 322): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (89%) -[ 322, 323): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (89%) -[ 323, 324): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%) -[ 324, 325): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (90%) -[ 325, 326): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%) -[ 326, 327): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%) -[ 327, 328): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%) -[ 328, 329): █████████████████████ 0.30% (91%) -[ 329, 330): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (92%) -[ 330, 331): ████████████████████████ 0.33% (92%) -[ 331, 332): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (92%) -[ 332, 333): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (93%) -[ 333, 334): █████████████████████ 0.29% (93%) -[ 334, 335): ███████████████████ 0.26% (93%) -[ 335, 336): █████████████████ 0.24% (94%) -[ 336, 337): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%) -[ 337, 338): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%) -[ 338, 339): ██████████████████ 0.26% (94%) -[ 339, 340): █████████████████ 0.24% (95%) -[ 340, 341): ███████████████ 0.21% (95%) -[ 341, 342): ████████████████ 0.23% (95%) -[ 342, 343): ███████████████ 0.22% (95%) -[ 343, 344): ████████████████ 0.22% (96%) -[ 344, 345): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%) -[ 345, 346): ██████████████ 0.19% (96%) -[ 346, 347): █████████████ 0.19% (96%) -[ 347, 348): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%) -[ 348, 349): █████████████ 0.18% (97%) -[ 349, 350): ████████████ 0.17% (97%) -[ 350, 351): ███████████ 0.16% (97%) -[ 351, 352): ██████████ 0.14% (97%) -[ 352, 353): ████████████ 0.18% (97%) -[ 353, 354): ██████████ 0.14% (97%) -[ 354, 355): ██████████ 0.15% (97%) -[ 355, 356): ██████████ 0.14% (98%) -[ 356, 357): █████████ 0.13% (98%) -[ 357, 358): █████████ 0.13% (98%) -[ 358, 359): ████████ 0.12% (98%) -[ 359, 360): ███████ 0.11% (98%) -[ 360, 361): ████████ 0.12% (98%) -[ 361, 362): ███████ 0.11% (98%) -[ 362, 363): ███████ 0.10% (98%) -[ 363, 364): ██████ 0.09% (99%) -[ 364, 365): ██████ 0.09% (99%) -[ 365, 366): ███████ 0.10% (99%) -[ 366, 367): █████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 367, 368): ██████ 0.08% (99%) -[ 368, 369): █████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 369, 370): █████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 370, 371): ███ 0.05% (99%) -[ 371, 372): ████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 372, 373): █████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 373, 374): █████ 0.08% (99%) -[ 374, 375): █████ 0.07% (99%) -[ 375, 376): ███ 0.04% (99%) -[ 376, 377): ███ 0.05% (99%) -[ 377, 378): ███ 0.04% (99%) -[ 378, 379): ███ 0.05% (100%) -[ 379, 380): ███ 0.04% (100%) -[ 380, 381): ██ 0.03% (100%) -[ 381, 382): ██ 0.03% (100%) -[ 382, 383): ██ 0.04% (100%) -[ 383, 384): ██ 0.03% (100%) -[ 384, 385): ██ 0.03% (100%) -[ 385, 386): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 386, 387): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 387, 388): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 388, 389): █ 0.03% (100%) -[ 389, 390): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 390, 391): █ 0.02% (100%) -[ 391, 392): █ 0.01% (100%) -[ 392, 393): 0.01% (100%) -[ 393, 394): 0.01% (100%) -[ 394, 395): 0.01% (100%) -[ 395, 396): 0.01% (100%) -[ 396, 397): 0.01% (100%) -[ 397, 398): 0.01% (100%) -[ 398, 399): 0.01% (100%) -[ 399, 400): 0.01% (100%) - -% republicans: 0.496280 +[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%) +[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%) +[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%) +[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%) +[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%) +[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%) +[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%) +[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%) +[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%) +[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%) +[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%) +[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%) +[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%) +[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%) +[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%) +[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%) +[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%) +[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%) +[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%) +[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%) +[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%) +[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%) +[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%) +[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%) +[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%) +[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%) +[ 176, 177): 0.01% (0%) +[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%) +[ 178, 179): 0.01% (0%) +[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%) +[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%) +[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%) +[ 182, 183): 0.01% (0%) +[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%) +[ 184, 185): 0.01% (0%) +[ 185, 186): 0.01% (0%) +[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%) +[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%) +[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%) +[ 189, 190): 0.02% (0%) +[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%) +[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%) +[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%) +[ 193, 194): █ 0.03% (0%) +[ 194, 195): 0.02% (0%) +[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%) +[ 196, 197): 0.02% (0%) +[ 197, 198): ██ 0.05% (0%) +[ 198, 199): █ 0.04% (0%) +[ 199, 200): ██ 0.05% (0%) +[ 200, 201): █ 0.04% (0%) +[ 201, 202): ██ 0.05% (1%) +[ 202, 203): ██ 0.05% (1%) +[ 203, 204): ██ 0.06% (1%) +[ 204, 205): ███ 0.07% (1%) +[ 205, 206): ██ 0.06% (1%) +[ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%) +[ 207, 208): ███ 0.07% (1%) +[ 208, 209): ████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 209, 210): ███ 0.09% (1%) +[ 210, 211): ███ 0.08% (1%) +[ 211, 212): ████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 212, 213): ████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 213, 214): ████ 0.10% (1%) +[ 214, 215): █████ 0.12% (2%) +[ 215, 216): █████ 0.12% (2%) +[ 216, 217): ██████ 0.14% (2%) +[ 217, 218): ██████ 0.15% (2%) +[ 218, 219): ███████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 219, 220): ███████ 0.17% (2%) +[ 220, 221): ████████ 0.18% (2%) +[ 221, 222): ████████ 0.20% (3%) +[ 222, 223): █████████ 0.21% (3%) +[ 223, 224): ██████████ 0.24% (3%) +[ 224, 225): ██████████ 0.24% (3%) +[ 225, 226): ██████████ 0.23% (4%) +[ 226, 227): ██████████ 0.24% (4%) +[ 227, 228): ████████████ 0.29% (4%) +[ 228, 229): ██████████████ 0.32% (4%) +[ 229, 230): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%) +[ 230, 231): ███████████████ 0.35% (5%) +[ 231, 232): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%) +[ 232, 233): ████████████████ 0.37% (6%) +[ 233, 234): ███████████████████ 0.44% (6%) +[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (7%) +[ 235, 236): ██████████████████ 0.41% (7%) +[ 236, 237): ████████████████████ 0.45% (8%) +[ 237, 238): ███████████████████████ 0.51% (8%) +[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%) +[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████ 0.65% (9%) +[ 240, 241): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%) +[ 241, 242): ████████████████████████ 0.54% (11%) +[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (11%) +[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (12%) +[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (13%) +[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (13%) +[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (14%) +[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████ 0.71% (15%) +[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (16%) +[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (17%) +[ 250, 251): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (18%) +[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (19%) +[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%) +[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.01% (21%) +[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (22%) +[ 255, 256): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (23%) +[ 256, 257): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (24%) +[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%) +[ 258, 259): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (26%) +[ 259, 260): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (27%) +[ 260, 261): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (29%) +[ 261, 262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (30%) +[ 262, 263): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (31%) +[ 263, 264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (33%) +[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (34%) +[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (35%) +[ 266, 267): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (37%) +[ 267, 268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (38%) +[ 268, 269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (40%) +[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (41%) +[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (43%) +[ 271, 272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (44%) +[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (46%) +[ 273, 274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (47%) +[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (49%) +[ 275, 276): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (50%) +[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (52%) +[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (53%) +[ 278, 279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (55%) +[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (56%) +[ 280, 281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (58%) +[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (60%) +[ 282, 283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (61%) +[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (62%) +[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%) +[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (65%) +[ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (67%) +[ 287, 288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (68%) +[ 288, 289): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (69%) +[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (71%) +[ 290, 291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (72%) +[ 291, 292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (74%) +[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (75%) +[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (76%) +[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.28% (77%) +[ 295, 296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (79%) +[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (80%) +[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (81%) +[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (82%) +[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (83%) +[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (84%) +[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (85%) +[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%) +[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%) +[ 304, 305): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (88%) +[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (89%) +[ 306, 307): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (90%) +[ 307, 308): ████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (90%) +[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (91%) +[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%) +[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (92%) +[ 311, 312): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (93%) +[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%) +[ 313, 314): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%) +[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.52% (95%) +[ 315, 316): ████████████████████ 0.46% (95%) +[ 316, 317): ████████████████████ 0.45% (96%) +[ 317, 318): ████████████████ 0.37% (96%) +[ 318, 319): ████████████████ 0.36% (96%) +[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%) +[ 320, 321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%) +[ 321, 322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%) +[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.28% (98%) +[ 323, 324): ███████████ 0.26% (98%) +[ 324, 325): ██████████ 0.22% (98%) +[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.19% (98%) +[ 326, 327): ████████ 0.18% (98%) +[ 327, 328): ██████ 0.14% (99%) +[ 328, 329): ██████ 0.15% (99%) +[ 329, 330): ████████ 0.19% (99%) +[ 330, 331): █████ 0.13% (99%) +[ 331, 332): ███ 0.09% (99%) +[ 332, 333): ████ 0.10% (99%) +[ 333, 334): ████ 0.10% (99%) +[ 334, 335): ████ 0.10% (99%) +[ 335, 336): ████ 0.09% (100%) +[ 336, 337): ███ 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