From 224db1ddfda04c1c91d6e6dc907eb34bfeca930f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 10:34:58 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] continue processing polls, tweak README

---
 README.md | 13 ++++++++++---
 main.go   | 47 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------
 2 files changed, 50 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index f83374e..de403ee 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -30,14 +30,21 @@ When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won w
 
 Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?
 
+- [ ] Consider conditional probabilities
+  - See how other models account for the correlation
+- [ ] Add uncertainty using Laplace's law of succession?
+  - Maybe only do this for contested states? Alabama is not going to turn Democratic?
+
 ## Second round: just consider polls
 
 - [x] Download and format
 - [x] Read
-- [ ] Add date of poll
+- [x] Add date of poll
 - [ ] Consider what the standards error should be 
+- [ ] Consider how to aggregate polls?
+  - One extreme: Just look at the most recent one
+  - [x] Another extreme: Aggregate very naïvely, add up all samples together?
 - [ ] Aggregate polls?
 - [ ] Exclude polls older than one month?
+- [ ] Exclude partisan polls
 - [ ] ...
-
-## Third 
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
index 4c558b3..131fe70 100644
--- a/main.go
+++ b/main.go
@@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 	fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
 	fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
 	fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
-	fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
+	// fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
 
 	switch state.Name {
 	case "Nebraska":
@@ -233,11 +233,6 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 				}
 			}
 			p_republican = p_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
-			if r.Float64() < p_republican {
-				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
-			} else {
-				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0}
-			}
 
 			/* Considering polls */
 			var recent_polls []Poll
@@ -246,7 +241,45 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 					recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
 				}
 			}
-			return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 1}
+
+			var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
+			for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
+				has_biden := false
+				has_trump := false
+				for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
+					if candidate_name == "Biden" {
+						has_biden = true
+					} else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
+						has_trump = true
+					}
+				}
+				if has_biden && has_trump {
+					recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
+				}
+				fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_poll)
+			}
+
+			num_biden_votes := 0.0
+			num_trump_votes := 0.0
+			for _, recent_biden_trump_poll := range recent_biden_trump_polls {
+				biden_percentage := 0.0
+				trump_percentage := 0.0
+				for candidate_name, candidate_percentage := range recent_biden_trump_poll.PollResults {
+					if candidate_name == "Biden" {
+						biden_percentage = candidate_percentage
+					} else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
+						trump_percentage = candidate_percentage
+					}
+				}
+				num_biden_votes += biden_percentage * float64(recent_biden_trump_poll.SampleSize)
+				num_trump_votes += trump_percentage * float64(recent_biden_trump_poll.SampleSize)
+			}
+
+			if r.Float64() < p_republican {
+				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
+			} else {
+				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0}
+			}
 		}
 	}
 }