NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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finish state printing function

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NunoSempere 2024-04-14 15:07:21 -04:00
parent a4c01576cb
commit 1c1c32a83d
1 changed files with 39 additions and 15 deletions
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54
main.go
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@ -251,14 +251,45 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name) fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes) fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory) fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
// fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
p_baserate_republican := 0.0
for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
if party == "R" {
p_baserate_republican++
}
}
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican)
// Individual poll
for _, poll := range state.Polls { for _, poll := range state.Polls {
p_republican_win_poll := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll) p_republican_win_poll := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll) fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_poll) fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_poll)
} }
// Aggregate poll
num_biden_votes := 0.0
num_trump_votes := 0.0
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
}
aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tAggregate Poll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_aggregate_polls)
}
} }
} }
@ -325,23 +356,14 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 { if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
aggregate_trump_share := num_trump_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes) var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
aggregate_biden_share := num_biden_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes) aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
std_mean_aggregate_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / aggregate_sample_size) p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll)
p_republican_aggregate_polls := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_mean_aggregate_polls)
if dev {
fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_aggregate_polls)
}
weight_polls := 1.0 weight_polls := 1.0
p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican
} }
if dev {
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_baserate_republican)
}
if r.Float64() < p_republican { if r.Float64() < p_republican {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
} else { } else {
@ -379,6 +401,8 @@ func main() {
n_sims := 10_000 n_sims := 10_000
printStates(states)
p_republicans := 0.0 p_republicans := 0.0
for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ { for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ {
result := simulateElection(states) result := simulateElection(states)