1134 lines
60 KiB
Plaintext
1134 lines
60 KiB
Plaintext
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State: Massachusetts
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 526.000000
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Mean R: 32.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.033933
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Trump:32] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 526.000000
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Mean R: 32.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.033933
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
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State: Mississippi
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Texas
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Votes: 40
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Vermont
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Kansas
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Kentucky
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Michigan
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Votes: 15
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 634.270000
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Mean R: 50.549451
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Std of mean R: 1.985211
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348
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Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 557.520000
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Mean R: 51.086957
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Std of mean R: 2.117079
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692
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Poll: {PollId:86899 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:1 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 572.880000
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Mean R: 49.462366
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Std of mean R: 2.088878
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.398443
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.088878
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.469772
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Poll: {PollId:86906 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 417.600000
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Mean R: 53.750000
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Std of mean R: 2.439860
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.937850
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.439860
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.692884
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Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 414.520000
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Mean R: 48.837209
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Std of mean R: 2.455160
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028
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Poll: {PollId:86990 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 654.720000
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Mean R: 50.537634
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Std of mean R: 1.953966
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.608400
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.953966
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530813
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3251 PollResults:map[Biden:49.35952834221638 Trump:50.64047165778362] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 3251.000000
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Mean R: 50.640472
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Std of mean R: 0.876851
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.767434
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.876851
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543392
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State: New Hampshire
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1140.000000
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Mean R: 48.000000
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Std of mean R: 1.479687
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791
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Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 468.000000
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Mean R: 46.153846
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Std of mean R: 2.304403
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252
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Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 630.122000
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Mean R: 50.068399
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Std of mean R: 1.991853
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 2238.000000
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Mean R: 48.196300
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Std of mean R: 1.056227
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918
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State: North Carolina
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 659.650000
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Mean R: 51.898734
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Std of mean R: 1.945359
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720
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Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 534.890000
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Mean R: 53.932584
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Std of mean R: 2.155214
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707
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|
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Poll: {PollId:86992 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Harris:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 647.680000
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|
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Mean R: 54.347826
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.957229
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.986839
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.957229
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.733994
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Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 410.640000
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Mean R: 51.724138
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|
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Std of mean R: 2.465932
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87012 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 861.720000
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|
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Mean R: 51.162791
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.702823
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.752653
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.702823
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568862
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|
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Poll: {PollId:86883 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:42.6] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 484.200000
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Mean R: 52.788104
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Std of mean R: 2.268722
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.890451
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.268722
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649353
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Poll: {PollId:86907 SampleSize:553 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 447.930000
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Mean R: 54.320988
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Std of mean R: 2.353624
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.966813
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.353624
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.721600
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4046 PollResults:map[Biden:47.24035080349221 Trump:52.75964919650779] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 4046.000000
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Mean R: 52.759649
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|
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Std of mean R: 0.784864
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999781
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.784864
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683335
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State: North Dakota
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Wisconsin
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:86902 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:0 Stein:0 Trump:47 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 571.020000
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Mean R: 50.537634
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Std of mean R: 2.092277
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.601396
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.092277
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530213
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Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 429.440000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.412786
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:86879 SampleSize:1457 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Stein:4 Trump:39 West:1] Date:2024-05-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1151.030000
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|
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Mean R: 49.367089
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.473642
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.333784
|
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|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.473642
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461058
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|
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Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
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Sample size: 658.350000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.578947
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||
|
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Std of mean R: 1.947713
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
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Sample size: 452.700000
|
||
|
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Mean R: 50.000000
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|
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Std of mean R: 2.349983
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3262 PollResults:map[Biden:49.810577035070835 Trump:50.18942296492916] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
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Sample size: 3262.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.189423
|
||
|
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Std of mean R: 0.875437
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.585652
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875437
|
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512860
|
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|
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|
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State: Arizona
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|
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Votes: 11
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||
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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|
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Poll: {PollId:86987 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:51 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
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Sample size: 755.250000
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||
|
|
Mean R: 53.684211
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.814439
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.978847
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.814439
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705625
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Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 792.370000
|
||
|
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Mean R: 54.430380
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.769271
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||
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600
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|
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Poll: {PollId:86903 SampleSize:529 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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||
|
|
Sample size: 454.940000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.162791
|
||
|
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Std of mean R: 2.343557
|
||
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.690111
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.343557
|
||
|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.562906
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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||
|
|
Sample size: 469.030000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.561798
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.308566
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1002.120000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.380952
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.577674
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 411.600000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.380952
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.461724
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 499.989000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.131547
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.234060
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86897 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:1 Stein:2 Trump:49 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 575.920000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.260870
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.079042
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.941612
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.079042
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677471
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4961 PollResults:map[Biden:47.30000832456701 Trump:52.699991675433] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 4961.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.699992
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.708845
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999930
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708845
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.681875
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Iowa
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Minnesota
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86948 SampleSize:625 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 537.500000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.837209
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.156072
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.294837
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.822739
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380496
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:537 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 537.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.837209
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.157076
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.294923
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.823742
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380527
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New Jersey
|
||
|
|
Votes: 14
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Pennsylvania
|
||
|
|
Votes: 19
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86901 SampleSize:1023 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Mapstead:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 951.390000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.612903
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.620185
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.840255
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.620185
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596243
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 678.900000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.612903
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.917967
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 423.690000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.275862
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.427658
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86908 SampleSize:509 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 427.560000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.190476
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.417399
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.688803
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.417399
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.563756
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86993 SampleSize:812 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:43 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:2] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 779.520000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.083333
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.789283
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877857
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.789283
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.620524
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3261 PollResults:map[Biden:48.76359220621516 Trump:51.23640779378484] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3261.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.236408
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.875310
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.921104
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875310
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.583338
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Rhode Island
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 538.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 40.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.112100
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 538.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 40.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.112100
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Tennessee
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86998 SampleSize:501 PollResults:map[Biden:29 Kennedy:8 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 380.760000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 61.842105
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.489480
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.156147
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997809
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:380 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1578947368421 Trump:61.8421052631579] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 380.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 61.842105
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.491968
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.158635
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997797
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Wyoming
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Delaware
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Illinois
|
||
|
|
Votes: 19
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Colorado
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: District of Columbia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Nevada
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 426.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.112676
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.420344
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 449.964000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.596288
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.351012
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 407.160000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.574713
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.477757
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 431.460000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.407131
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 357.780000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.056180
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.629844
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86900 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:2 Stein:1 Trump:51 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 546.460000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 57.303371
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.115961
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999721
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115961
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.847634
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 546.910000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.648352
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.136859
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3165 PollResults:map[Biden:47.01374152092375 Trump:52.98625847907625] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3165.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.986258
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.887171
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999619
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.887171
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.694010
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: South Dakota
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 407.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 61.425061
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.412838
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 407.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 61.425061
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.412838
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Arkansas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: California
|
||
|
|
Votes: 54
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New Mexico
|
||
|
|
Votes: 5
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Utah
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Georgia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 16
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86989 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 739.350000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.688172
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.836185
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.928403
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.836185
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652924
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 390.100000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.602410
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.531340
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86898 SampleSize:604 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:2 Stein:0 Trump:50 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 549.640000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 54.945055
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.122249
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.990100
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122249
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.756256
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 546.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.648352
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.138639
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86905 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 393.660000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.086420
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.515245
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.890105
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.515245
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659349
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86896 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:13 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 444.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.405405
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.358988
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.989030
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.358988
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768687
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3062 PollResults:map[Biden:46.91274181699453 Trump:53.08725818300547] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3062.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.087258
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.901858
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999691
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.901858
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699547
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Montana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 13
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 554.580000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.717949
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.122487
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:554 PollResults:map[Biden:51.282051282051285 Trump:48.717948717948715] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 554.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.717949
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.123598
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.273016
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123598
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428587
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Florida
|
||
|
|
Votes: 30
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86889 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:10 Trump:46] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 505.470000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.421687
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.210823
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.992903
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.210823
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.773939
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1003.850000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 57.647059
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.559538
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 422.820000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.172414
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.418555
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86904 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 498.100000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.294118
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.227735
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.991260
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.227735
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768060
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2430 PollResults:map[Biden:43.72860293633551 Trump:56.27139706366449] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2430.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 56.271397
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.006291
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.006291
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.851789
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Maine
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New York
|
||
|
|
Votes: 28
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1000.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.800000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.572565
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1012.350000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.705882
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.562631
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2012.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.752652
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.108539
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Oklahoma
|
||
|
|
Votes: 7
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Oregon
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Washington
|
||
|
|
Votes: 12
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 578.100000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 41.489362
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.049200
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 306.280000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.736842
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.841131
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 884.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 42.614035
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.663233
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: West Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Connecticut
|
||
|
|
Votes: 7
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Maryland
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86882 SampleSize:1115 PollResults:map[Biden:49.9 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:1 Trump:32.5 West:3] Date:2024-05-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 918.760000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 39.441748
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.612366
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.279033
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000641
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86881 SampleSize:719 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:32] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 661.480000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 34.782609
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.851844
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.518511
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000008
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1580 PollResults:map[Biden:62.50854300612565 Trump:37.49145699387435] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1580.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 37.491457
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.217888
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.884555
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000007
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Hawaii
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Idaho
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Indiana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Louisiana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Missouri
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Nebraska
|
||
|
|
Votes: 5
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Alabama
|
||
|
|
Votes: 9
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Alaska
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Ohio
|
||
|
|
Votes: 17
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: South Carolina
|
||
|
|
Votes: 9
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
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[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (43%)
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[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (45%)
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[ 270, 271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (46%)
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[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (53%)
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[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (54%)
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[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (56%)
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[ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (57%)
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[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (59%)
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[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (60%)
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[ 280, 281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (62%)
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[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
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[ 282, 283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (65%)
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[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (66%)
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[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (68%)
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[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (69%)
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[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (71%)
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[ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (72%)
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[ 290, 291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (76%)
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[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (78%)
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|
|
[ 331, 332): ███ 0.05% (99%)
|
||
|
|
[ 332, 333): ███ 0.05% (99%)
|
||
|
|
[ 333, 334): ████ 0.07% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 334, 335): ████ 0.07% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 335, 336): ███ 0.06% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 336, 337): █ 0.03% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 337, 338): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 338, 339): ██ 0.03% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 339, 340): ██ 0.04% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 340, 341): █ 0.03% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 342, 343): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 343, 344): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 351, 352): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 353, 354): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
% republicans: 0.551070
|