1180 lines
54 KiB
Plaintext
1180 lines
54 KiB
Plaintext
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State: Idaho
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Indiana
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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State: Mississippi
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Utah
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Vermont
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Pennsylvania
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Votes: 19
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87546 SampleSize:850 PollResults:map[Harris:44.3 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0.4 Stein:0.7 Trump:46.1 West:0.6] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 768.400000
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Mean R: 50.995575
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Std of mean R: 1.803392
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.709545
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.833392
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.706443
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Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 771.840000
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Mean R: 52.083333
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Std of mean R: 1.798163
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.828163
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.872769
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Poll: {PollId:87485 SampleSize:624 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Shapiro:47 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 536.640000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.158383
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.188383
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87540 SampleSize:147 PollResults:map[Biden:35 Harris:45 Kennedy:10 Oliver:2 Stein:2 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 135.240000
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Mean R: 51.086957
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Std of mean R: 4.298479
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.599816
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.328479
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599138
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Poll: {PollId:87575 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 704.000000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 1.884446
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.914446
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 595.650000
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Mean R: 50.526316
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Std of mean R: 2.048568
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.078568
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599947
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Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 540.000000
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Mean R: 47.777778
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Std of mean R: 2.149531
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.179531
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.153962
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Poll: {PollId:87563 SampleSize:851 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 748.880000
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Mean R: 52.272727
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Std of mean R: 1.825218
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.893467
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.855218
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.889721
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Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 470.000000
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Mean R: 50.638298
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Std of mean R: 2.306140
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.336140
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607661
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Poll: {PollId:87583 SampleSize:1034 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:54 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1 Whitmer:48] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 961.620000
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Mean R: 47.311828
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Std of mean R: 1.610051
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.047497
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.640051
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050598
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Poll: {PollId:87518 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:46 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 480.000000
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Mean R: 52.083333
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Std of mean R: 2.280195
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.819553
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.310195
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.816418
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:6712 PollResults:map[Harris:49.694514672383555 Trump:50.305485327616445] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 6712.000000
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Mean R: 50.305485
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Std of mean R: 0.610290
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.691659
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.640290
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683356
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State: South Carolina
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Votes: 9
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Delaware
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Louisiana
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Michigan
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Votes: 15
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87577 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
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Sample size: 475.000000
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Mean R: 51.578947
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Std of mean R: 2.293013
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.754460
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.323013
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.751652
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Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 670.700000
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Mean R: 44.210526
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Std of mean R: 1.917674
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.947674
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001477
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Poll: {PollId:87572 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:41.6 Kennedy:9.7 Newsom:32.7 Oliver:0.7 Stein:0.3 Trump:40.3 Whitmer:43.3] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 491.400000
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Mean R: 49.206349
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Std of mean R: 2.255266
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.362453
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.285266
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364187
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Poll: {PollId:87544 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:43.8 Kennedy:4.7 Oliver:0.3 Stein:0.6 Trump:44.1 West:0.5] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 703.200000
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Mean R: 50.170648
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Std of mean R: 1.885507
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.536057
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.915507
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535494
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Poll: {PollId:87585 SampleSize:1012 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:47 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:1 Whitmer:52] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 981.640000
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|
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Mean R: 49.484536
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.595772
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.373341
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.625772
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.375600
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87486 SampleSize:650 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:45 Whitmer:46] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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||
|
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Sample size: 559.000000
|
||
|
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Mean R: 52.325581
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||
|
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Std of mean R: 2.112486
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.864524
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||
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.142486
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.861141
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87569 SampleSize:512 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:7 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 435.200000
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Mean R: 51.764706
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Std of mean R: 2.395272
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.769361
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.425272
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.766581
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4316 PollResults:map[Harris:50.42653852748058 Trump:49.57346147251943] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 4316.000000
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Mean R: 49.573461
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|
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Std of mean R: 0.761051
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.287583
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.791051
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.294873
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State: New Mexico
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Votes: 5
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History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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State: New York
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Votes: 28
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:87496 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Harris:52 Trump:41] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 465.000000
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Mean R: 44.086022
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Std of mean R: 2.302418
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.005106
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312418
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005272
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:465 PollResults:map[Harris:55.913978494623656 Trump:44.086021505376344] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 465.000000
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|
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Mean R: 44.086022
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Std of mean R: 2.302418
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.005106
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312418
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005272
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State: North Carolina
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:87564 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 521.540000
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|
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Mean R: 51.685393
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|
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Std of mean R: 2.188161
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.779419
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|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.218161
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.776318
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87526 SampleSize:573 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Cooper:41 Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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|
|
Sample size: 509.970000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.561798
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.213963
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|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.600156
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|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.243963
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.598845
|
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
|
Sample size: 663.640000
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||
|
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Mean R: 51.063830
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|
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Std of mean R: 1.940463
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235
|
||
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.970463
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705363
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1695 PollResults:map[Harris:48.895967908444675 Trump:51.104032091555325] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
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Sample size: 1695.000000
|
||
|
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Mean R: 51.104032
|
||
|
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Std of mean R: 1.214169
|
||
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.818401
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.244169
|
||
|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.812559
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|
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State: Maryland
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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|
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Wisconsin
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|
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 672.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.958333
|
||
|
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Std of mean R: 1.928373
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|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.958373
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|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.297396
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87571 SampleSize:523 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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||
|
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Sample size: 460.240000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
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||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.330654
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||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.360654
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||
|
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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|
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Poll: {PollId:87582 SampleSize:1046 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Shapiro:46 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1 Whitmer:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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||
|
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Sample size: 1025.080000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
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||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.561677
|
||
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.591677
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87545 SampleSize:845 PollResults:map[Harris:45.4 Kennedy:3.4 Stein:0.5 Trump:44.9] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 763.035000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 49.723145
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.810052
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.439217
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.840052
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.440201
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2920 PollResults:map[Harris:50.31203398216997 Trump:49.68796601783002] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2920.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 49.687966
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.925273
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.367970
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.955273
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.371969
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Minnesota
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87570 SampleSize:475 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:41] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 403.750000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.235294
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.486813
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.238968
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.496813
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.239851
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87581 SampleSize:656 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 590.400000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.444444
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.045028
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003298
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.055028
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.003432
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87584 SampleSize:1071 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:7 Shapiro:49 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1 Whitmer:49] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1038.870000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.391753
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.547233
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.009849
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.557233
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.010249
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2033 PollResults:map[Harris:53.80763593078278 Trump:46.19236406921723] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2033.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.192364
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.105703
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000287
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.115703
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000322
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Montana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Alabama
|
||
|
|
Votes: 9
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Arizona
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87525 SampleSize:736 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:40 Kelly:43 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 625.600000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.941176
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.995579
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.929738
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.025579
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.926752
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:19 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 771.840000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.958333
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.799335
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.829335
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.284534
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 593.280000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.041667
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.052324
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.082324
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.691548
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87566 SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 453.900000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.685393
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.345541
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.763792
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.375541
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760986
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87542 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:39.8 Kennedy:5.2 Oliver:0.6 Stein:0.5 Trump:47.5 West:0.6] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 698.400000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 54.410080
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.884612
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.990359
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.914612
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.989371
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3143 PollResults:map[Harris:48.250408842450895 Trump:51.74959115754911] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3143.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.749591
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.891316
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.975173
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.921316
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.971219
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Connecticut
|
||
|
|
Votes: 7
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Florida
|
||
|
|
Votes: 30
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 704.340000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.846154
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.878409
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.908409
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.978067
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87567 SampleSize:572 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 491.920000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 54.651163
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.244582
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.980875
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.274582
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979565
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1196 PollResults:map[Harris:45.82281443833281 Trump:54.1771855616672] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1196.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 54.177186
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.440733
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.998130
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.470733
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997746
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Georgia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 16
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 628.900000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 49.473684
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.993679
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.023679
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.397402
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87510 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41.8 Harris:45.9 Kennedy:7.7 Oliver:1.3 Trump:50.5] Date:2024-07-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 964.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.385892
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.608557
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.930996
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.638557
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.927317
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87543 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:43.3 Kennedy:4.1 Oliver:0.1 Stein:0.5 Trump:45.9 West:0.8] Date:2024-07-23 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 713.600000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.457399
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.870932
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.782001
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.900932
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778363
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87534 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:44.3 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0.3 Stein:0.3 Trump:45.8 West:1.1] Date:2024-07-22 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 360.400000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.832408
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.633404
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.624035
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.663404
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.622683
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 751.060000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.824453
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.854453
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87568 SampleSize:1180 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:3 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1050.200000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.808989
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.540450
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.965885
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.570450
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.963165
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87588 SampleSize:505 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:49.9] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 486.315000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.817238
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.265813
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.788731
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.295813
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.785687
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4954 PollResults:map[Harris:48.5583235357934 Trump:51.441676464206594] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 4954.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.441676
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.710087
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.978836
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.740087
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.974292
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Kentucky
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Nevada
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 417.680000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.913043
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.445938
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.475938
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.330328
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87562 SampleSize:435 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 382.800000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.136364
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.554888
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.671761
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.584888
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.669893
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:50.023735758544866 Trump:49.97626424145513] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 800.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 49.976264
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.767767
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.494644
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.797767
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494733
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: North Dakota
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Rhode Island
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Washington
|
||
|
|
Votes: 12
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87576 SampleSize:581 PollResults:map[Harris:52 Kennedy:6 Trump:38] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 522.900000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 42.222222
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.159940
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000159
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.169940
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000169
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Harris:57.77777777777778 Trump:42.22222222222222] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 522.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 42.222222
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.161801
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000160
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.171801
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000171
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Wyoming
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: California
|
||
|
|
Votes: 54
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87609 SampleSize:2121 PollResults:map[Biden:52 De la Cruz:2 Harris:54 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-22 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1887.690000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 39.325843
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.124283
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.134283
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Trump:35] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1789.760000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 37.234043
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.142707
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.152707
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3677 PollResults:map[Harris:61.69220519653564 Trump:38.30779480346436] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3677.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 38.307795
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.801700
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.811700
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Colorado
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Maine
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87558 SampleSize:1445 PollResults:map[Harris:54 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:1] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1430.550000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 45.454545
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.316487
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000277
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.326487
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000305
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1430 PollResults:map[Harris:54.54545454545454 Trump:45.454545454545446] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1430.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 45.454545
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.316740
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000278
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.326740
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000306
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: South Dakota
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Texas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 40
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Illinois
|
||
|
|
Votes: 19
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Kansas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Massachusetts
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Nebraska
|
||
|
|
Votes: 5
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Ohio
|
||
|
|
Votes: 17
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Tennessee
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: West Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Hawaii
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Missouri
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New Hampshire
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87560 SampleSize:2083 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1958.020000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.808511
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.127652
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.002326
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.157652
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.002918
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 891.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.464646
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.670871
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.700871
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.018829
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87559 SampleSize:2875 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-07-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2846.250000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.464646
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.934857
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000078
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.964857
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000124
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87509 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:39.4 Harris:39.3 Kennedy:20.5 Trump:40.2] Date:2024-07-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 477.795000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.566038
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.287291
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.597728
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.317291
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596488
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:6173 PollResults:map[Harris:53.10883653420141 Trump:46.89116346579859] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 6173.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 46.891163
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.635157
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 0.665157
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New Jersey
|
||
|
|
Votes: 14
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Oklahoma
|
||
|
|
Votes: 7
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Oregon
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87634 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-07-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 595.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 47.058824
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.046251
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.056251
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.076307
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:595 PollResults:map[Harris:52.94117647058823 Trump:47.05882352941177] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 595.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 47.058824
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.046251
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.075309
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.056251
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.076307
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Alaska
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Arkansas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: District of Columbia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Iowa
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 13
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 181, 182): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 182, 183): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 183, 184): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 186, 187): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 187, 188): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 188, 189): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 189, 190): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 190, 191): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 191, 192): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 192, 193): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 193, 194): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 194, 195): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 195, 196): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 196, 197): 0.00% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 197, 198): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 198, 199): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 199, 200): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 200, 201): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 201, 202): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 202, 203): 0.01% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 203, 204): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 204, 205): █ 0.03% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 205, 206): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 206, 207): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 207, 208): 0.02% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 208, 209): █ 0.03% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 209, 210): ██ 0.05% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 210, 211): █ 0.04% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 211, 212): █ 0.03% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 212, 213): ██ 0.05% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 213, 214): █ 0.04% (0%)
|
||
|
|
[ 214, 215): ██ 0.05% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 215, 216): ███ 0.08% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 216, 217): ██ 0.06% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 217, 218): ██ 0.07% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 218, 219): ███ 0.09% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 219, 220): ███ 0.08% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 220, 221): ███ 0.08% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 221, 222): ███ 0.09% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 222, 223): █████ 0.12% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 223, 224): ██████ 0.16% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 224, 225): █████ 0.14% (1%)
|
||
|
|
[ 225, 226): █████ 0.14% (2%)
|
||
|
|
[ 226, 227): █████ 0.14% (2%)
|
||
|
|
[ 227, 228): ██████ 0.16% (2%)
|
||
|
|
[ 228, 229): ███████████ 0.28% (2%)
|
||
|
|
[ 229, 230): ████████████ 0.29% (3%)
|
||
|
|
[ 230, 231): ████████ 0.20% (3%)
|
||
|
|
[ 231, 232): ███████ 0.19% (3%)
|
||
|
|
[ 232, 233): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
|
||
|
|
[ 233, 234): ████████████ 0.31% (3%)
|
||
|
|
[ 234, 235): █████████████████ 0.41% (4%)
|
||
|
|
[ 235, 236): ██████████████ 0.35% (4%)
|
||
|
|
[ 236, 237): ███████████ 0.28% (4%)
|
||
|
|
[ 237, 238): ███████████ 0.28% (5%)
|
||
|
|
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[ 471, 472): 0.00% (100%)
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||
|
|
[ 472, 473): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 473, 474): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 474, 475): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 475, 476): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 476, 477): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 477, 478): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 478, 479): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 479, 480): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 480, 481): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 481, 482): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 482, 483): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 483, 484): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 484, 485): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 485, 486): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 486, 487): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 487, 488): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 488, 489): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 489, 490): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 490, 491): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 491, 492): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 492, 493): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 493, 494): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 494, 495): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 495, 496): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 496, 497): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 497, 498): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 498, 499): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 499, 500): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 500, 501): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 501, 502): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 502, 503): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 503, 504): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 504, 505): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 505, 506): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 506, 507): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 507, 508): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 508, 509): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 509, 510): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 510, 511): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 511, 512): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 512, 513): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 513, 514): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 514, 515): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 515, 516): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 516, 517): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 517, 518): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 518, 519): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 519, 520): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 520, 521): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 521, 522): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 522, 523): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 523, 524): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 524, 525): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 525, 526): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 526, 527): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 527, 528): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 528, 529): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 529, 530): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 530, 531): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 531, 532): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 532, 533): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 533, 534): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 534, 535): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 535, 536): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 536, 537): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
[ 537, 538): 0.00% (100%)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
% republicans: 0.598283
|