2024-election-modelling/out/output-2024-06-02.txt

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State: Massachusetts
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 526.000000
Mean R: 32.000000
Std of mean R: 2.033933
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Trump:32] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 526.000000
Mean R: 32.000000
Std of mean R: 2.033933
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
State: Mississippi
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Texas
Votes: 40
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Vermont
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Kansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Kentucky
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Michigan
Votes: 15
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 634.270000
Mean R: 50.549451
Std of mean R: 1.985211
Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348
Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 557.520000
Mean R: 51.086957
Std of mean R: 2.117079
Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692
Poll: {PollId:86899 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:1 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 572.880000
Mean R: 49.462366
Std of mean R: 2.088878
Poll says chance of R win: 0.398443
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.088878
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.469772
Poll: {PollId:86906 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 417.600000
Mean R: 53.750000
Std of mean R: 2.439860
Poll says chance of R win: 0.937850
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.439860
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.692884
Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 414.520000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.455160
Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028
Poll: {PollId:86990 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 654.720000
Mean R: 50.537634
Std of mean R: 1.953966
Poll says chance of R win: 0.608400
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.953966
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530813
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3251 PollResults:map[Biden:49.35952834221638 Trump:50.64047165778362] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3251.000000
Mean R: 50.640472
Std of mean R: 0.876851
Poll says chance of R win: 0.767434
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.876851
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543392
State: New Hampshire
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1140.000000
Mean R: 48.000000
Std of mean R: 1.479687
Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791
Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 468.000000
Mean R: 46.153846
Std of mean R: 2.304403
Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252
Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 630.122000
Mean R: 50.068399
Std of mean R: 1.991853
Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 2238.000000
Mean R: 48.196300
Std of mean R: 1.056227
Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918
State: North Carolina
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 659.650000
Mean R: 51.898734
Std of mean R: 1.945359
Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720
Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 534.890000
Mean R: 53.932584
Std of mean R: 2.155214
Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707
Poll: {PollId:86992 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Harris:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 647.680000
Mean R: 54.347826
Std of mean R: 1.957229
Poll says chance of R win: 0.986839
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.957229
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.733994
Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 410.640000
Mean R: 51.724138
Std of mean R: 2.465932
Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317
Poll: {PollId:87012 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 861.720000
Mean R: 51.162791
Std of mean R: 1.702823
Poll says chance of R win: 0.752653
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.702823
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568862
Poll: {PollId:86883 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:42.6] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 484.200000
Mean R: 52.788104
Std of mean R: 2.268722
Poll says chance of R win: 0.890451
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.268722
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649353
Poll: {PollId:86907 SampleSize:553 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 447.930000
Mean R: 54.320988
Std of mean R: 2.353624
Poll says chance of R win: 0.966813
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.353624
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.721600
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4046 PollResults:map[Biden:47.24035080349221 Trump:52.75964919650779] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 4046.000000
Mean R: 52.759649
Std of mean R: 0.784864
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999781
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.784864
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683335
State: North Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Wisconsin
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86902 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:0 Stein:0 Trump:47 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 571.020000
Mean R: 50.537634
Std of mean R: 2.092277
Poll says chance of R win: 0.601396
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.092277
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530213
Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 429.440000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.412786
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
Poll: {PollId:86879 SampleSize:1457 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Stein:4 Trump:39 West:1] Date:2024-05-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1151.030000
Mean R: 49.367089
Std of mean R: 1.473642
Poll says chance of R win: 0.333784
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.473642
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461058
Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 658.350000
Mean R: 51.578947
Std of mean R: 1.947713
Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890
Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 452.700000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.349983
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3262 PollResults:map[Biden:49.810577035070835 Trump:50.18942296492916] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3262.000000
Mean R: 50.189423
Std of mean R: 0.875437
Poll says chance of R win: 0.585652
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875437
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512860
State: Arizona
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86987 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:51 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 755.250000
Mean R: 53.684211
Std of mean R: 1.814439
Poll says chance of R win: 0.978847
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.814439
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705625
Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 792.370000
Mean R: 54.430380
Std of mean R: 1.769271
Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600
Poll: {PollId:86903 SampleSize:529 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 454.940000
Mean R: 51.162791
Std of mean R: 2.343557
Poll says chance of R win: 0.690111
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.343557
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.562906
Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 469.030000
Mean R: 50.561798
Std of mean R: 2.308566
Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636
Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1002.120000
Mean R: 52.380952
Std of mean R: 1.577674
Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315
Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 411.600000
Mean R: 52.380952
Std of mean R: 2.461724
Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170
Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 499.989000
Mean R: 52.131547
Std of mean R: 2.234060
Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871
Poll: {PollId:86897 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:1 Stein:2 Trump:49 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 575.920000
Mean R: 53.260870
Std of mean R: 2.079042
Poll says chance of R win: 0.941612
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.079042
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677471
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4961 PollResults:map[Biden:47.30000832456701 Trump:52.699991675433] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 4961.000000
Mean R: 52.699992
Std of mean R: 0.708845
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999930
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708845
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.681875
State: Iowa
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: Minnesota
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86948 SampleSize:625 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 537.500000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.156072
Poll says chance of R win: 0.294837
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.822739
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380496
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:537 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 537.000000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.157076
Poll says chance of R win: 0.294923
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.823742
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380527
State: New Jersey
Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Pennsylvania
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86901 SampleSize:1023 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Mapstead:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 951.390000
Mean R: 51.612903
Std of mean R: 1.620185
Poll says chance of R win: 0.840255
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.620185
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596243
Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 678.900000
Mean R: 51.612903
Std of mean R: 1.917967
Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176
Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 423.690000
Mean R: 48.275862
Std of mean R: 2.427658
Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221
Poll: {PollId:86908 SampleSize:509 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 427.560000
Mean R: 51.190476
Std of mean R: 2.417399
Poll says chance of R win: 0.688803
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.417399
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.563756
Poll: {PollId:86993 SampleSize:812 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:43 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:2] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 779.520000
Mean R: 52.083333
Std of mean R: 1.789283
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877857
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.789283
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.620524
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3261 PollResults:map[Biden:48.76359220621516 Trump:51.23640779378484] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3261.000000
Mean R: 51.236408
Std of mean R: 0.875310
Poll says chance of R win: 0.921104
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875310
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.583338
State: Rhode Island
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 538.000000
Mean R: 40.000000
Std of mean R: 2.112100
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 538.000000
Mean R: 40.000000
Std of mean R: 2.112100
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
State: Tennessee
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86998 SampleSize:501 PollResults:map[Biden:29 Kennedy:8 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 380.760000
Mean R: 61.842105
Std of mean R: 2.489480
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.156147
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997809
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:380 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1578947368421 Trump:61.8421052631579] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 380.000000
Mean R: 61.842105
Std of mean R: 2.491968
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.158635
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997797
State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Delaware
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Illinois
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Colorado
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
State: District of Columbia
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Nevada
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 426.000000
Mean R: 52.112676
Std of mean R: 2.420344
Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068
Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 449.964000
Mean R: 53.596288
Std of mean R: 2.351012
Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658
Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 407.160000
Mean R: 50.574713
Std of mean R: 2.477757
Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631
Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 431.460000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.407131
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 357.780000
Mean R: 55.056180
Std of mean R: 2.629844
Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234
Poll: {PollId:86900 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:2 Stein:1 Trump:51 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.460000
Mean R: 57.303371
Std of mean R: 2.115961
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999721
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115961
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.847634
Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.910000
Mean R: 51.648352
Std of mean R: 2.136859
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3165 PollResults:map[Biden:47.01374152092375 Trump:52.98625847907625] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3165.000000
Mean R: 52.986258
Std of mean R: 0.887171
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999619
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.887171
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.694010
State: South Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 407.000000
Mean R: 61.425061
Std of mean R: 2.412838
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 407.000000
Mean R: 61.425061
Std of mean R: 2.412838
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
State: Arkansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: California
Votes: 54
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: New Mexico
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
State: Utah
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Georgia
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86989 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 739.350000
Mean R: 52.688172
Std of mean R: 1.836185
Poll says chance of R win: 0.928403
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.836185
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652924
Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 390.100000
Mean R: 50.602410
Std of mean R: 2.531340
Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876
Poll: {PollId:86898 SampleSize:604 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:2 Stein:0 Trump:50 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 549.640000
Mean R: 54.945055
Std of mean R: 2.122249
Poll says chance of R win: 0.990100
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122249
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.756256
Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.000000
Mean R: 51.648352
Std of mean R: 2.138639
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
Poll: {PollId:86905 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 393.660000
Mean R: 53.086420
Std of mean R: 2.515245
Poll says chance of R win: 0.890105
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.515245
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659349
Poll: {PollId:86896 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:13 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 444.000000
Mean R: 55.405405
Std of mean R: 2.358988
Poll says chance of R win: 0.989030
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.358988
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768687
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3062 PollResults:map[Biden:46.91274181699453 Trump:53.08725818300547] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3062.000000
Mean R: 53.087258
Std of mean R: 0.901858
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999691
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.901858
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699547
State: Montana
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Virginia
Votes: 13
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 554.580000
Mean R: 48.717949
Std of mean R: 2.122487
Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:554 PollResults:map[Biden:51.282051282051285 Trump:48.717948717948715] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 554.000000
Mean R: 48.717949
Std of mean R: 2.123598
Poll says chance of R win: 0.273016
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123598
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428587
State: Florida
Votes: 30
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
Poll: {PollId:86889 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:10 Trump:46] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 505.470000
Mean R: 55.421687
Std of mean R: 2.210823
Poll says chance of R win: 0.992903
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.210823
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.773939
Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1003.850000
Mean R: 57.647059
Std of mean R: 1.559538
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151
Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 422.820000
Mean R: 55.172414
Std of mean R: 2.418555
Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170
Poll: {PollId:86904 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 498.100000
Mean R: 55.294118
Std of mean R: 2.227735
Poll says chance of R win: 0.991260
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.227735
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768060
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2430 PollResults:map[Biden:43.72860293633551 Trump:56.27139706366449] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 2430.000000
Mean R: 56.271397
Std of mean R: 1.006291
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.006291
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.851789
State: Maine
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: New York
Votes: 28
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1000.000000
Mean R: 44.800000
Std of mean R: 1.572565
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212
Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1012.350000
Mean R: 44.705882
Std of mean R: 1.562631
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 2012.000000
Mean R: 44.752652
Std of mean R: 1.108539
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326
State: Oklahoma
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Oregon
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Washington
Votes: 12
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 578.100000
Mean R: 41.489362
Std of mean R: 2.049200
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000
Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 306.280000
Mean R: 44.736842
Std of mean R: 2.841131
Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 884.000000
Mean R: 42.614035
Std of mean R: 1.663233
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275
State: West Virginia
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Connecticut
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Maryland
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86882 SampleSize:1115 PollResults:map[Biden:49.9 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:1 Trump:32.5 West:3] Date:2024-05-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 918.760000
Mean R: 39.441748
Std of mean R: 1.612366
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.279033
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000641
Poll: {PollId:86881 SampleSize:719 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:32] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 661.480000
Mean R: 34.782609
Std of mean R: 1.851844
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.518511
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000008
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1580 PollResults:map[Biden:62.50854300612565 Trump:37.49145699387435] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1580.000000
Mean R: 37.491457
Std of mean R: 1.217888
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.884555
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000007
State: Hawaii
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Idaho
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Indiana
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
State: Louisiana
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Missouri
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Nebraska
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: Alabama
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Alaska
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Ohio
Votes: 17
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
State: South Carolina
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%)
[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%)
[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%)
[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%)
[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%)
[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%)
[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%)
[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%)
[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%)
[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%)
[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%)
[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%)
[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%)
[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%)
[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%)
[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%)
[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%)
[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%)
[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%)
[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%)
[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%)
[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%)
[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%)
[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%)
[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%)
[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%)
[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%)
[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%)
[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%)
[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%)
[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%)
[ 182, 183): 0.01% (0%)
[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%)
[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%)
[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%)
[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%)
[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%)
[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%)
[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%)
[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%)
[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
[ 192, 193): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%)
[ 196, 197): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 197, 198): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 200, 201): ██ 0.03% (0%)
[ 201, 202): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 202, 203): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 203, 204): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 204, 205): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 205, 206): ████ 0.07% (1%)
[ 206, 207): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 207, 208): ████ 0.07% (1%)
[ 208, 209): █████ 0.09% (1%)
[ 209, 210): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%)
[ 211, 212): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 212, 213): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
[ 213, 214): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
[ 214, 215): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 215, 216): █████████ 0.16% (2%)
[ 216, 217): █████████ 0.15% (2%)
[ 217, 218): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 218, 219): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
[ 219, 220): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
[ 220, 221): ████████████ 0.20% (3%)
[ 221, 222): █████████████ 0.22% (3%)
[ 222, 223): ███████████████ 0.25% (3%)
[ 223, 224): ████████████████ 0.27% (3%)
[ 224, 225): █████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
[ 225, 226): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
[ 226, 227): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
[ 227, 228): ████████████████████ 0.33% (5%)
[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████ 0.41% (5%)
[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (5%)
[ 230, 231): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████ 0.40% (6%)
[ 232, 233): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (7%)
[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
[ 235, 236): █████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (9%)
[ 237, 238): ████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (9%)
[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (10%)
[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (11%)
[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (11%)
[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (12%)
[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (13%)
[ 243, 244): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (13%)
[ 244, 245): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (14%)
[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (15%)
[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%)
[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (17%)
[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (18%)
[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (19%)
[ 250, 251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (20%)
[ 251, 252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (21%)
[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (22%)
[ 253, 254): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (23%)
[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (24%)
[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (27%)
[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (28%)
[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (29%)
[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (30%)
[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (32%)
[ 261, 262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (33%)
[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (35%)
[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (36%)
[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (37%)
[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (39%)
[ 266, 267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (40%)
[ 267, 268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (42%)
[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (43%)
[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (45%)
[ 270, 271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (46%)
[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (48%)
[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (50%)
[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (51%)
[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (53%)
[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (54%)
[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (56%)
[ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (57%)
[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (59%)
[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (60%)
[ 280, 281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (62%)
[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
[ 282, 283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (65%)
[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (66%)
[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (68%)
[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (69%)
[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (71%)
[ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (72%)
[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (73%)
[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (75%)
[ 290, 291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (76%)
[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (78%)
[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%)
[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (80%)
[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (81%)
[ 295, 296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (82%)
[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.10% (83%)
[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (84%)
[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (85%)
[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%)
[ 300, 301): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (87%)
[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (88%)
[ 302, 303): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (89%)
[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (91%)
[ 306, 307): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (93%)
[ 308, 309): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%)
[ 309, 310): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%)
[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (94%)
[ 311, 312): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (95%)
[ 312, 313): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (95%)
[ 313, 314): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (96%)
[ 314, 315): █████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
[ 315, 316): █████████████████████ 0.35% (96%)
[ 316, 317): █████████████████████ 0.35% (97%)
[ 317, 318): ████████████████ 0.27% (97%)
[ 318, 319): █████████████████ 0.29% (97%)
[ 319, 320): ███████████████████ 0.32% (98%)
[ 320, 321): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%)
[ 321, 322): ██████████ 0.17% (98%)
[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.20% (98%)
[ 323, 324): █████████████ 0.22% (98%)
[ 324, 325): ███████████ 0.20% (99%)
[ 325, 326): █████████ 0.16% (99%)
[ 326, 327): ███████ 0.12% (99%)
[ 327, 328): █████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 328, 329): ██████ 0.11% (99%)
[ 329, 330): █████████ 0.15% (99%)
[ 330, 331): █████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 331, 332): ███ 0.05% (99%)
[ 332, 333): ███ 0.05% (99%)
[ 333, 334): ████ 0.07% (100%)
[ 334, 335): ████ 0.07% (100%)
[ 335, 336): ███ 0.06% (100%)
[ 336, 337): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 337, 338): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 338, 339): ██ 0.03% (100%)
[ 339, 340): ██ 0.04% (100%)
[ 340, 341): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%)
[ 342, 343): 0.01% (100%)
[ 343, 344): 0.01% (100%)
[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%)
[ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%)
[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%)
[ 351, 352): 0.01% (100%)
[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%)
[ 353, 354): 0.00% (100%)
[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%)
[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%)
[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%)
[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%)
[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%)
[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%)
[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%)
[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%)
[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%)
[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%)
[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%)
[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%)
[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%)
[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%)
[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%)
[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%)
[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%)
[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%)
[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%)
[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%)
[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%)
[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%)
[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%)
[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%)
[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%)
[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%)
[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%)
[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%)
[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%)
[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%)
[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%)
[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%)
[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%)
[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%)
[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%)
[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%)
[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%)
[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%)
[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%)
[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%)
[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%)
[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%)
[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%)
[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
% republicans: 0.551070