2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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go run main.go
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Illinois
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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Votes: 19
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: North Carolina
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 456.000000
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Mean R: 57.894737
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Std of mean R: 2.312093
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
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Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 659.650000
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Mean R: 51.898734
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Std of mean R: 1.945359
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
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Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 534.890000
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Mean R: 53.932584
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Std of mean R: 2.155214
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
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Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1212.120000
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Mean R: 52.747253
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Std of mean R: 1.433972
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
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Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 410.640000
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Mean R: 51.724138
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Std of mean R: 2.465932
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 3273.000000
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Mean R: 53.358690
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Std of mean R: 0.871997
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Oklahoma
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Votes: 7
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: South Dakota
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 407.000000
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Mean R: 61.425061
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Std of mean R: 2.412838
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
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N republican wins: 6
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 407.000000
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Mean R: 61.425061
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Std of mean R: 2.412838
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
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N republican wins: 6
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Vermont
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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Votes: 3
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Wisconsin
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 253.500000
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Mean R: 46.666667
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Std of mean R: 3.133385
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
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Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 658.350000
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Mean R: 51.578947
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Std of mean R: 1.947713
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
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Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 429.440000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.412786
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 452.700000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.349983
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1793.000000
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Mean R: 50.108418
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Std of mean R: 1.180807
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Colorado
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Georgia
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 390.100000
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Mean R: 50.602410
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Std of mean R: 2.531340
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
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Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 546.000000
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Mean R: 51.648352
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Std of mean R: 2.138639
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
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Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 962.400000
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Mean R: 53.750000
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Std of mean R: 1.607190
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1898.000000
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Mean R: 52.498815
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Std of mean R: 1.146249
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361
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2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
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State: Ohio
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Votes: 17
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
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Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1011.930000
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Mean R: 53.932584
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Std of mean R: 1.566922
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
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Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 705.760000
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Mean R: 54.545455
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Std of mean R: 1.874301
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1717.000000
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Mean R: 54.184399
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Std of mean R: 1.202427
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393
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2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
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State: Pennsylvania
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Votes: 19
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 423.690000
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Mean R: 48.275862
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Std of mean R: 2.427658
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
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Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 678.900000
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Mean R: 51.612903
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Std of mean R: 1.917967
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
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Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 856.800000
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Mean R: 49.411765
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Std of mean R: 1.708049
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1959.000000
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Mean R: 49.928804
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Std of mean R: 1.129672
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463
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State: Washington
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Votes: 12
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 578.100000
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Mean R: 41.489362
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Std of mean R: 2.049200
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
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Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 306.280000
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Mean R: 44.736842
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Std of mean R: 2.841131
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 884.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 42.614035
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.663233
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Alabama
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 9
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Kansas
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Kentucky
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 8
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Minnesota
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 10
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 680.800000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 47.708578
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.914272
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 680.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 47.708578
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.915398
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Missouri
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 10
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Tennessee
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 11
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 11
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 952.650000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.873563
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.617279
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 499.989000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.131547
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.234060
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 792.370000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 54.430380
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.769271
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 469.030000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.561798
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.308566
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 411.600000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.380952
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.461724
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1002.120000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.380952
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.577674
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 4127.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.651136
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.777215
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Iowa
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Maine
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Massachusetts
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 11
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 525.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 36.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.094892
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 526.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 32.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.033933
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1051.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 33.998097
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.461182
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Mississippi
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Montana
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Nebraska
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 5
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Texas
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 40
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: District of Columbia
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 3
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Florida
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 30
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 935.250000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 54.022989
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.629656
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 422.820000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 55.172414
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.418555
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 861.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 56.097561
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.691277
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1003.850000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 57.647059
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.559538
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
Sample size: 3222.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 55.856801
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.874797
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Idaho
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Michigan
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 15
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 648.940000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.656455
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.962593
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 628.140000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 49.425287
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.994863
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 414.520000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 48.837209
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.455160
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 634.270000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.549451
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.985211
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 557.520000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 51.086957
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.117079
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 2883.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.186413
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.931204
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Utah
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Virginia
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 13
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 918.810000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 49.397590
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.649399
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 554.580000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 48.717949
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.122487
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1473.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 49.141775
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.302581
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Delaware
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 3
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: California
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 54
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Hawaii
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Indiana
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 11
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: New Jersey
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 14
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Oregon
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 8
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Alaska
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
Votes: 3
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Louisiana
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 8
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Nevada
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 908.650000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.941176
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.655842
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 407.160000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.574713
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.477757
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 357.780000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 55.056180
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.629844
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 546.910000
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Mean R: 51.648352
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.136859
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 426.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.112676
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.420344
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 431.460000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.407131
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 449.964000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 53.596288
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.351012
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 3527.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 52.305945
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.841017
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: New Hampshire
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1140.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 48.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.479687
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 630.122000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 50.068399
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.991853
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 468.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 46.153846
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.304403
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 2238.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 48.196300
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.056227
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: New Mexico
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 5
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: North Dakota
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 3
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: Rhode Island
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 4
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 538.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 40.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.112100
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 538.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 40.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.112100
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
State: South Carolina
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 9
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Arkansas
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 6
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Wyoming
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 3
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Maryland
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 10
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State: New York
|
|
|
|
|
Votes: 28
|
|
|
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 1000.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 44.800000
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.572565
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
|
|
|
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
|
Sample size: 1012.350000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 44.705882
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.562631
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|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
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|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
|
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|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
|
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|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
|
Sample size: 2012.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 44.752652
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.108539
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
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|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
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State: West Virginia
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|
Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
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|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
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|
|
Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
|
Sample size: 385.120000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 66.265060
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.409263
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
|
|
|
Sample size: 385.000000
|
|
|
|
|
Mean R: 66.265060
|
|
|
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.409639
|
|
|
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
|
|
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
|
|
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
|
|
|
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
State: Connecticut
|
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|
|
Votes: 7
|
|
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|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
|
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
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|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
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[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 181, 182): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 182, 183): 0.01% (0%)
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[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%)
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[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%)
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|
[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%)
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[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%)
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|
[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%)
|
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|
[ 188, 189): 0.01% (0%)
|
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|
[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 190, 191): 0.00% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
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|
|
[ 197, 198): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 201, 202): █ 0.03% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 203, 204): ██ 0.05% (0%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 204, 205): ███ 0.06% (0%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 205, 206): ███ 0.06% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 207, 208): ███ 0.06% (1%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 208, 209): ████ 0.07% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 209, 210): █████ 0.09% (1%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 210, 211): ████ 0.08% (1%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 211, 212): ████ 0.08% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 212, 213): █████ 0.10% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 213, 214): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.15% (1%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 216, 217): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 217, 218): ████████ 0.15% (2%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 218, 219): █████████ 0.17% (2%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 219, 220): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 220, 221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 221, 222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.21% (3%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 223, 224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.27% (3%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.27% (4%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 227, 228): ████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 228, 229): █████████████████████ 0.37% (4%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 229, 230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 230, 231): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.35% (5%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 232, 233): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (6%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (6%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 236, 237): ████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 237, 238): ███████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (10%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (11%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (12%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (13%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (15%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 247, 248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (17%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (18%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (19%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (24%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (27%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (28%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (31%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (34%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 263, 264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (35%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (36%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (38%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (40%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (41%)
|
2024-06-11 21:43:53 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (43%)
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (44%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (46%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 271, 272): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 272, 273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (49%)
|
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|
[ 273, 274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (51%)
|
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|
|
|
[ 274, 275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (52%)
|
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|
|
|
[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.73% (54%)
|
|
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|
|
[ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (57%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 278, 279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (59%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%)
|
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|
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[ 505, 506): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 506, 507): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 507, 508): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 508, 509): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 509, 510): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 510, 511): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 511, 512): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 512, 513): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 513, 514): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 514, 515): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 515, 516): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 516, 517): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 517, 518): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 518, 519): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 519, 520): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 520, 521): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 521, 522): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 522, 523): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 523, 524): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 524, 525): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 525, 526): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 526, 527): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 527, 528): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 528, 529): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 529, 530): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 530, 531): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 531, 532): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 532, 533): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 533, 534): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 534, 535): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 535, 536): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 536, 537): 0.00% (100%)
|
|
|
|
|
[ 537, 538): 0.00% (100%)
|
2024-06-11 21:42:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2024-06-11 22:03:38 +00:00
|
|
|
% republicans: 0.557435
|
