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change the nuclear probability to monthly

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NunoSempere 2023-07-24 00:14:44 +02:00
parent b76a630d58
commit ef40ef5ae7
2 changed files with 30 additions and 3 deletions
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examples/08_nuclear_war/example
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examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
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@ -1,13 +1,15 @@
#include "../../squiggle.h"
#include <stdint.h>
#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
{
double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
double current_year = 2023;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
double current_year = 2022;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year = sample_beta(1, current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons + 1, seed);
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1-laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year,(1.0/12.0)) ;
double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
@ -17,7 +19,7 @@ double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
// 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month * london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
return probability_of_dying;
}
@ -32,11 +34,36 @@ double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed)
return probability_of_dying;
}
double mixture(uint64_t* seed){
double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = {probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli};
double weights[] = {0.5, 0.5};
return sample_mixture(samplers, weights, 2, seed);
}
int main()
{
// set randomness seed
uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
*seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
int n = 1000 * 1000;
double* mixture_result = malloc(sizeof(double) * n);
for(int i=0; i<n; i++){
mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed);
}
printf("mixture_result: [ ");
for(int i=0; i<9; i++){
printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]);
}
printf("... ]\n");
struct c_i c_i_90 = get_90_confidence_interval(mixture, seed);
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(mixture_result, n));
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90.low, c_i_90.high);
free(seed);
}