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NunoSempere 2023-07-24 00:15:05 +02:00
parent ef40ef5ae7
commit 84399e60a2
1 changed files with 13 additions and 14 deletions
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23
examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
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@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
#include "../../squiggle.h"
#include <stdint.h>
#include <math.h>
#include <stdint.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
double current_year = 2022;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year = sample_beta(1, current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons + 1, seed);
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1-laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year,(1.0/12.0)) ;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1 - laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year, (1.0 / 12.0));
double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
@ -34,9 +34,10 @@ double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed)
return probability_of_dying;
}
double mixture(uint64_t* seed){
double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = {probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli};
double weights[] = {0.5, 0.5};
double mixture(uint64_t* seed)
{
double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = { probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli };
double weights[] = { 0.5, 0.5 };
return sample_mixture(samplers, weights, 2, seed);
}
@ -48,22 +49,20 @@ int main()
int n = 1000 * 1000;
double* mixture_result = malloc(sizeof(double) * n);
for(int i=0; i<n; i++){
mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed);
for (int i = 0; i < n; i++) {
mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed);
}
printf("mixture_result: [ ");
for(int i=0; i<9; i++){
printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]);
for (int i = 0; i < 9; i++) {
printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]);
}
printf("... ]\n");
struct c_i c_i_90 = get_90_confidence_interval(mixture, seed);
struct c_i c_i_90 = get_90_confidence_interval(mixture, seed);
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(mixture_result, n));
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90.low, c_i_90.high);
free(seed);
}