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				|  | @ -1,6 +1,6 @@ | |||
| #include "../../squiggle.h" | ||||
| #include <stdint.h> | ||||
| #include <math.h> | ||||
| #include <stdint.h> | ||||
| #include <stdio.h> | ||||
| #include <stdlib.h> | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|  | @ -9,7 +9,7 @@ double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed) | |||
|     double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953; | ||||
|     double current_year = 2022; | ||||
|     double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year = sample_beta(1, current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons + 1, seed); | ||||
| 		double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1-laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year,(1.0/12.0)) ; | ||||
|     double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1 - laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year, (1.0 / 12.0)); | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|     double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed); | ||||
|     // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
 | ||||
|  | @ -34,9 +34,10 @@ double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed) | |||
|     return probability_of_dying; | ||||
| } | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| double mixture(uint64_t* seed){ | ||||
|     double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = {probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli}; | ||||
|     double weights[] = {0.5, 0.5}; | ||||
| double mixture(uint64_t* seed) | ||||
| { | ||||
|     double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = { probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli }; | ||||
|     double weights[] = { 0.5, 0.5 }; | ||||
|     return sample_mixture(samplers, weights, 2, seed); | ||||
| } | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|  | @ -48,14 +49,13 @@ int main() | |||
| 
 | ||||
|     int n = 1000 * 1000; | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|     double* mixture_result = malloc(sizeof(double) * n); | ||||
|     for(int i=0; i<n; i++){ | ||||
|     for (int i = 0; i < n; i++) { | ||||
|         mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed); | ||||
|     } | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|     printf("mixture_result: [ "); | ||||
|     for(int i=0; i<9; i++){ | ||||
|     for (int i = 0; i < 9; i++) { | ||||
|         printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]); | ||||
|     } | ||||
|     printf("... ]\n"); | ||||
|  | @ -64,6 +64,5 @@ int main() | |||
|     printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(mixture_result, n)); | ||||
|     printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90.low, c_i_90.high); | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| 
 | ||||
|     free(seed); | ||||
| } | ||||
|  |  | |||
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