forked from personal/squiggle.c
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@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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#include "../../squiggle.h"
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#include <stdint.h>
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#include <math.h>
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#include <stdint.h>
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#include <stdio.h>
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#include <stdlib.h>
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@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
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double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
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double current_year = 2022;
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double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year = sample_beta(1, current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons + 1, seed);
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double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1-laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year,(1.0/12.0)) ;
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double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_month = 1 - pow(1 - laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_year, (1.0 / 12.0));
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double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
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// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
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@ -34,9 +34,10 @@ double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed)
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return probability_of_dying;
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}
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double mixture(uint64_t* seed){
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double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = {probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli};
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double weights[] = {0.5, 0.5};
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double mixture(uint64_t* seed)
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{
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double (*samplers[])(uint64_t*) = { probability_of_dying_nuno, probability_of_dying_eli };
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double weights[] = { 0.5, 0.5 };
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return sample_mixture(samplers, weights, 2, seed);
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}
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@ -47,23 +48,21 @@ int main()
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*seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
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int n = 1000 * 1000;
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double* mixture_result = malloc(sizeof(double) * n);
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for(int i=0; i<n; i++){
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mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed);
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for (int i = 0; i < n; i++) {
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mixture_result[i] = mixture(seed);
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}
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printf("mixture_result: [ ");
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for(int i=0; i<9; i++){
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printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]);
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for (int i = 0; i < 9; i++) {
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printf("%.6f, ", mixture_result[i]);
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}
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printf("... ]\n");
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struct c_i c_i_90 = get_90_confidence_interval(mixture, seed);
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struct c_i c_i_90 = get_90_confidence_interval(mixture, seed);
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printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(mixture_result, n));
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printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", c_i_90.low, c_i_90.high);
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free(seed);
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}
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